The challenge of assessing emerging technologies with life cycle assessment (LCA) has been increasingly discussed in the LCA field. In this article, we propose a definition of prospective LCA: An LCA is prospective when the (emerging) technology studied is in an early phase of development (e.g., small-scale production), but the technology is modeled at a future, more-developed phase (e.g., large-scale production). Methodological choices in prospective LCA must be adapted to reflect this goal of assessing environmental impacts of emerging technologies, which deviates from the typical goals of conventional LCA studies. The aim of the article is to provide a number of recommendations for how to conduct such prospective assessments in a relevant manner. The recommendations are based on a detailed review of selected prospective LCA case studies, mainly from the areas of nanomaterials, biomaterials, and energy technologies. We find that it is important to include technology alternatives that are relevant for the future in prospective LCA studies. Predictive scenarios and scenario ranges are two general approaches to prospective inventory modeling of both foreground and background systems. Many different data sources are available for prospective modeling of the foreground system: scientific articles; patents; expert interviews; unpublished experimental data; and process modeling. However, we caution against temporal mismatches between foreground and background systems, and recommend that foreground and background system impacts be reported separately in order to increase the usefulness of the results in other prospective studies. Keywords:case study emerging technology industrial ecology life cycle assessment (LCA) prospective technological changeConflict of interest statement: The authors have no conflict to declare.

One promising future bulk application of graphene is as composite additive. Therefore, we compare two production routes for in-solution graphene using a cradle-to-gate lifecycle assessment focusing on potential differences in energy use, blue water footprint, human toxicity, and ecotoxicity. The data used for the assessment is based on information in scientific papers and patents. Considering the prospective nature of this study, environmental impacts from background systems such as energy production were not included. The production routes are either based on ultrasonication or chemical reduction. The results show that the ultrasonication route has lower energy and water use, but higher human and ecotoxicity impacts, compared to the chemical reduction route. However, a sensitivity analysis showed that solvent recovery in the ultrasonication process gives lower impacts for all included impact categories. The sensitivity analysis also showed that solvent recovery is important to lower the blue water footprint of the chemical reduction route as well. The results demonstrate the possibility to conduct a life cycle assessment study based mainly on information from patents and scientific articles, enabling prospective life cycle assessment studies of products at early stages of technological development.

We report on the development of an interface to the US Patent and Trademark Office (USPTO) that allows for the mapping of patent portfolios as overlays to basemaps constructed from citation relations among all patents contained in this database during the period 1976-2011. Both the interface and the data are in the public domain; the freeware programs VOSViewer and/or Pajek can be used for the visualization. These basemaps and overlays can be generated at both the 3-digit and 4-digit levels of the International Patent Classifications (IPC) of the World Intellectual Property Organization (WIPO). The basemaps can provide a stable mental framework for analysts to follow developments over searches for different years, which can be animated. The full flexibility of the advanced search engines of USPTO are available for generating sets of patents and/or patent applications which can thus be visualized and compared. This instrument allows for addressing questions about technological distance, diversity in portfolios, and animating the developments of both technologies and technological capacities of organizations over time.

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Keywords:energy analysis fullerene industrial ecology life cycle assessment (LCA) nanotube synthesis SummaryEnergy requirements for fullerene and nanotube synthesis are calculated from literature data and presented for a number of important production processes, including fluidized bed and floating catalyst chemical vapor deposition (CVD), carbon monoxide disproportionation, pyrolysis, laser ablation, and electric arc and solar furnace synthesis. To produce data for strategic forward-looking assessments of the environmental implications of carbon nanoparticles, an attempt is made to balance generality with sufficient detail for individual processes, a trade-off that will likely be inherent in the analysis of many nanotechnologies. Critical energy and production issues are identified, and potential improvements in industrial-scale processes are discussed. Possible interactions with industrial ecosystems are discussed with a view toward integrating synthesis to mitigate the impacts of large-scale carbon nanoparticle manufacture. Carbon nanoparticles are found to be highly energy-intensive materials, on the order of 2 to 100 times more energy-intensive than aluminum, even with idealized production models.

A hybrid solar energy system consisting of a molecular solar thermal energy storage system (MOST) combined with a solar water heating system (SWH) is presented.

One of the most promising applications of graphene is as material in transparent electrodes in applications such as liquid crystal displays (LCDs) and solar cells. In this study, we assess life cycle resource requirements of producing an electrode area of graphene by chemical vapor deposition (CVD) and compare to the production of indium tin oxide (ITO). The resources considered are energy and scarce metals. The results show that graphene layers can have lower life cycle energy use than ITO layers, with 3-10 times reduction for our best case scenario. Regarding use of scarce metals, the use of indium in ITO production is more problematic than the use of copper in graphene production, although the latter may constitute a resource constraint in the very long run. The substitution of ITO by graphene thus seems favorable from a resource point of view. Higher order system effects may outweigh or enhance the energy use benefit. For example, cheaper, graphene-based electrodes may spur increased production of LCDs, leading to increased absolute energy use, or spur the development of new energy technologies, potentially leading to larger absolute reductions in resource use.

The Economic Complexity Index (ECI; Hidalgo & Hausmann, 2009) measures the complexity of national economies in terms of product groups. Analogously to ECI, a Patent Complexity Index (PatCI) can be developed on the basis of a matrix of nations versus patent classes. Using linear algebra, the three dimensions-countries, product groups, and patent classes-can be combined into a measure of "Triple Helix" complexity (THCI) including the trilateral interaction terms between knowledge production, wealth generation, and (national) control. THCI can be expected to capture the extent of systems integration between the global dynamics of markets (ECI) and technologies (PatCI) in each national system of innovation. We measure ECI, PatCI, and THCI during the period 2000-2014 for the 34 OECD member states, the BRICS countries, and a group of emerging and affiliated economies (Argentina, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Malaysia, Romania, and Singapore). The three complexity indicators are correlated between themselves; but the correlations with GDP per capita are virtually absent. Of the world's major economies, Japan scores highest on all three indicators, while China has been increasingly successful in combining economic and technological complexity. We could not reproduce the correlation between ECI and average income that has been central to the argument about the fruitfulness of the economic complexity approach.