SažetakU ovom članku nadovezaćemo se na davno započetu polemiku o validnosti statističkih podataka o zaposlenosti [1], [2], [13], [14], [15]. Iznećemo nove argumente kojima ćemo potkrepiti naše prethodno iznete tvrdnje da je zaposlenost nesumnjivo porasla u periodu 2012-2016. i da nema prostora za sumnju u kvalitet Ankete o radnoj snazi čiji kvalitet Petrović et al. uporno pokušavaju da ospore. Još jednom ćemo pokazati da Petrović et al, u pokušaju da diskredituju Anketu o radnoj snazi, a samim tim i zvaničnu statistiku, koriste neuporedive serije podataka iz Ankete, ignorišući pritom ostale statističke izvore koji potkrepljuju ocene zaposlenosti dobijene iz Ankete. Bavićemo se detaljnije prirodom povećane zaposlenosti, čime ćemo objasniti delimičnu nekonzistentnost između rasta zaposlenosti i BDP-a. Pokazaćemo da je netačna tvrdnja koju Petrović et al. iznose o neskladu između rasta zaposlenosti i privatne potrošnje, odnosno doprinosa od socijalnog osiguranja. Ukazaćemo i na problem nedovoljno iskorišćene radne snage. Ključne reči: Anketa o radnoj snazi, zaposlenost, kvalitet zaposlenosti, nacionalni računi AbstractIn this paper, we will continue the academic discussion started long ago [1], [2], [13], [14], [15] about the validity of employment statistics. We will present new arguments to support our previous assertions that employment has undoubtedly grown in the 2012-2016 period and that there is no room for doubt in the quality of the Labour Force Survey. In search for clues to better understand seemingly counterintuitive dynamics in Serbian labour market, we will analyse the precarious nature of recent employment growth in detail and present our findings on that subject, as well as its impact on the (in)consistency of employment trend and trends of social security contribution revenue and personal consumption.
Abstract:The need for classifying workers in the labour market exists in the case of information asymmetry between workers and employers. It is expected that certain mechanisms will be developed in order to overcome this information asymmetry. One of those mechanisms is signalling, whose basic idea is that highly productive workers take certain actions in order to separate themselves from the low productive workers. This paper reviews an economic role of education as a signal in the labour market. The goal of the paper is to show theoretically how education can play the role of signal in order to solve the problems caused by the asymmetric information. The importance of such analysis is reflected in the fact that the recommendations for educational policy makers in terms of investment in education are different depending on whether education serves as a mechanism for improving productivity or as a mechanism for signalling different productive capacity. It is shown that these differences arise from distinct ways of measuring social rates of return on investment in education.
The subject of the paper is estimation of a rate of return to investment in education of youth in Serbia. The aim of the paper is to determine, on the basis of the data from the School to Work Transition Survey (SWTS) from 2015, a premium for the education of persons from 15 to 29 years old. A rate of return to investment in education for youth is estimated using the least squares method and using the instrumental variables method. As the instruments for a variable that refers to the number of years of education were used a father's level of education and a mother's level of education.The results of the assessment using the least squares method indicate that a rate of return to investment in education for youth in Serbia is 5.2%. The value of the coefficient in the case of evaluation by the instrumental variables method is twice as big as in the case of the least squares method. It is confirmed that in the case of the assessment using the least squares method we get a biased assessment. This result also suggests that schooling of children in Serbia continues to serve as a family characteristic, and informs that the education system in Serbia cannot provide a fair access to schooling for those children coming from socioeconomic vulnerable families.
In recent years, Serbia has established itself as a leading destination for FDI thanks to its generous policy aimed at attracting direct investment. In this paper we look at the labour market effects of the policy of incentivised direct investment, first from a sectoral and regional perspective, and then by taking a holistic view at its impact on the overall labour market and economic development. We find that this policy has contributed to overall sectoral rebalancing of the labour market by increasing manufacturing jobs. It has also contributed to regional labour market rebalancing, most notably in improving the quality of employment in less developed regions and in stabilizing the shares of regional wage funds. Still, labour market, educational and infrastructure cleavages between regions remain very large. The transformational potential of Serbian labour market is far from being fully exploited, and Serbia still needs to sustain high level of investment in manufacturing jobs while at the same time supporting the gradual shift toward high-technology investment.
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