This paper evaluates the four leading techniques proposed in the literature for construction of prediction intervals (PIs) for neural network point forecasts. The delta, Bayesian, bootstrap, and mean-variance estimation (MVE) methods are reviewed and their performance for generating high-quality PIs is compared. PI-based measures are proposed and applied for the objective and quantitative assessment of each method's performance. A selection of 12 synthetic and real-world case studies is used to examine each method's performance for PI construction. The comparison is performed on the basis of the quality of generated PIs, the repeatability of the results, the computational requirements and the PIs variability with regard to the data uncertainty. The obtained results in this paper indicate that: 1) the delta and Bayesian methods are the best in terms of quality and repeatability, and 2) the MVE and bootstrap methods are the best in terms of low computational load and the width variability of PIs. This paper also introduces the concept of combinations of PIs, and proposes a new method for generating combined PIs using the traditional PIs. Genetic algorithm is applied for adjusting the combiner parameters through minimization of a PI-based cost function subject to two sets of restrictions. It is shown that the quality of PIs produced by the combiners is dramatically better than the quality of PIs obtained from each individual method.
The unsuitability of using classic mutual information measure as a performance measure for image fusion is discussed. Analytical proof that classic mutual information cannot be considered a measure for image fusion performance is provided.
Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is a highly pathogenic virus that has caused the global COVID-19 pandemic. Tracing the evolution and transmission of the virus is crucial to respond to and control the pandemic through appropriate intervention strategies. This paper reports and analyses genomic mutations in the coding regions of SARS-CoV-2 and their probable protein secondary structure and solvent accessibility changes, which are predicted using deep learning models. Prediction results suggest that mutation D614G in the virus spike protein, which has attracted much attention from researchers, is unlikely to make changes in protein secondary structure and relative solvent accessibility. Based on 6324 viral genome sequences, we create a spreadsheet dataset of point mutations that can facilitate the investigation of SARS-CoV-2 in many perspectives, especially in tracing the evolution and worldwide spread of the virus. Our analysis results also show that coding genes E, M, ORF6, ORF7a, ORF7b and ORF10 are most stable, potentially suitable to be targeted for vaccine and drug development.
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