An independent, graded association was observed between a reduced estimated GFR and the risk of death, cardiovascular events, and hospitalization in a large, community-based population. These findings highlight the clinical and public health importance of chronic renal insufficiency.

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To determine whether acute renal failure (ARF) increases the long-term risk of progressive chronic kidney disease (CKD), we studied the outcome of patients whose initial kidney function was normal or near normal but who had an episode of dialysis-requiring ARF and did not develop end-stage renal disease within 30 days following hospital discharge. The study encompassed 556,090 adult members of Kaiser Permanente of Northern California hospitalized over an 8 year period, who had pre-admission estimated glomerular filtration rates (eGFR) equivalent to or greater than 45 ml/min/1.73 m2 and who survived hospitalization. After controlling for potential confounders such as baseline level of eGFR and diabetes status, dialysis-requiring ARF was independently associated with a 28-fold increase in the risk of developing stage 4 or 5 CKD and more than a twofold increased risk of death. Our study shows that in a large, community-based cohort of patients with pre-existing normal or near normal kidney function, an episode of dialysis-requiring ARF was a strong independent risk factor for a long-term risk of progressive CKD and mortality.

Few studies have defined how the risk of hospital-acquired acute renal failure varies with the level of estimated glomerular filtration rate (GFR). It is also not clear whether common factors such as diabetes mellitus, hypertension and proteinuria increase the risk of nosocomial acute renal failure independent of GFR. To determine this we compared 1,746 hospitalized adult members of Kaiser Permanente Northern California who developed dialysis-requiring acute renal failure with 600,820 hospitalized members who did not. Patient GFR was estimated from the most recent outpatient serum creatinine measurement prior to admission. The adjusted odds ratios were significantly and progressively elevated from 1.95 to 40.07 for stage 3 through stage 5 patients (not yet on maintenance dialysis) compared to patients with estimated GFR in the stage 1 and 2 range. Similar associations were seen after controlling for inpatient risk factors. Pre-admission baseline diabetes mellitus, diagnosed hypertension and known proteinuria were also independent risk factors for acute kidney failure. Our study shows that the propensity to develop in-hospital acute kidney failure is another complication of chronic kidney disease whose risk markedly increases even in the upper half of stage 3 estimated GFR. Several common risk factors for chronic kidney disease also increase the peril of nosocomial acute kidney failure.

There is limited information about the true incidence of acute renal failure (ARF). Most studies could not quantify disease frequency in the general population as they are hospital-based and confounded by variations in threshold and the rate of hospitalization. Earlier studies relied on diagnostic codes to identify non-dialysis requiring ARF. These underestimated disease incidence since the codes have low sensitivity. Here we quantified the incidence of non-dialysis and dialysis-requiring ARF among members of a large integrated health care delivery system - Kaiser Permanente of Northern California. Non-dialysis requiring ARF was identified using changes in inpatient serum creatinine values. Between 1996 and 2003, the incidence of non-dialysis requiring ARF increased from 322.7 to 522.4 whereas that of dialysis-requiring ARF increased from 19.5 to 29.5 per 100,000 person-years. ARF was more common in men and among the elderly, although those aged 80 years or more were less likely to receive acute dialysis treatment. We conclude that the use of serum creatinine measurements to identify cases of non-dialysis requiring ARF resulted in much higher estimates of disease incidence compared with previous studies. Both dialysis-requiring and non-dialysis requiring ARFs are becoming more common. Our data underscore the public health importance of ARF.

Conclusions: In a large, community-based cohort of patients with CKD, an episode of superimposed dialysis-requiring ARF was associated with very high risk for nonrecovery of renal function. Dialysis-requiring ARF also seemed to be an independent risk factor for long-term risk for death or ESRD.

Background Atrial fibrillation (AF) frequently occurs in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD). However, the long-term impact of development of AF on the risk of adverse renal outcomes in patients with CKD is unknown. In this study, we determined the association between incident AF and risk of end-stage renal disease (ESRD) among adults with CKD. Methods and Results We studied adults with CKD (defined as persistent glomerular filtration rate [eGFR] <60 ml/min/1.73 m2 by the CKD-EPI equation) enrolled in Kaiser Permanente Northern California who were identified between 2002–2010 and who did not have prior ESRD or previously documented AF. Incident AF was identified using primary hospital discharge diagnoses and/or two or more outpatient visits for AF. Incident ESRD was ascertained from a comprehensive health plan registry for dialysis and renal transplant. Among 206,229 adults with CKD, 16,463 developed incident AF. During a mean follow-up of 5.1± 2.5 years, there were 345 cases of ESRD that occurred after development of incident AF (74 per 1000 person-years) compared with 6505 cases of ESRD during periods without AF (64 per 1000 person-years, P<0.001). After adjustment for potential confounders, incident AF was associated with a 67% increase in rate of ESRD (hazard ratio 1.67, 95% confidence interval: 1.46–1.91). Conclusions Incident AF is independently associated with increased risk of developing ESRD in adults with CKD. Further study is needed to identify potentially modifiable pathways through which AF leads to a higher risk of progression to ESRD.

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