Predictions of suitable habitat areas within a specific region can provide important information to assist in the management of invasive plants. Here, we predict the current and future potential distribution of Solidago altissima (tall goldenrod) in South Korea using climatic and topographic variables and anthropogenic activities. We adopt four single models (the generalized linear model, generalized additive model, random forest, and an artificial neural network) and a weighted ensemble model for the projection based on 515 field survey points. The results showed that suitable areas for S. altissima were mainly concentrated in the southwest regions of South Korea, where temperatures are higher than in other regions, especially in the winter season. Solar radiation and Topographic Wetness Index (TWI) were also positively associated with the occurrence of S. altissima. Anthropogenic effects and distances from rivers were found to be relatively less important variables. Based on six selected explanatory variables, suitable habitat areas for S. altissima have expanded remarkably with climate changes. This range expansion is likely to be stronger northward in west coastal areas. For the SSP585 scenario, our model predicted that suitable habitat areas increased from 16,255 km2 (16.2% of South Korea) to 44,551 km2 (44.4%) approximately over the past thirty years. Our results show that S. altissima is highly likely to expand into non-forest areas such as roadsides, waterfront areas, and abandoned urban areas. We propose that, based on our projection maps, S. altissima should be removed from its current margin areas first rather than from old central population areas.

Background: This study was undertaken to analyze the distribution and ecological characteristics of invasive alien plant species on Jeju Island, and to provide basic data for their management and control. Results: A field research was conducted at 436 locations on Jeju Island. The field research identified nine species of invasive alien species growing on Jeju Island. Based on the distribution pattern, Hypochaeris radicata L., Rumex acetosella, and Ambrosia artemisiifolia L. were found to be distributed horizontally throughout Jeju Island, with vertical growth in two or more vegetation zones, from warm temperate to the subalpine zone. Widely distributed species penetrate various habitats, such as grasslands, ranches, roadsides, farmlands, and empty lots, and have an immensely negative impact on the ecosystem, including declining biodiversity on Jeju Island. Paspalum distichum var. indutum Shinners, Paspalum distichum L., Solanum carolinense L., and Aster pilosus Willd. were distributed in some areas as a biased distribution species, whereas Lactuca scariola L. and Solidago altissima L. were found only in certain areas as centralized distribution species. Conclusions: The centralized distribution species and biased distribution species of the invasive plants in the ecosystem of Jeju Island should be physically eliminated, keeping in mind the short-and mid-term perspectives and monitoring, and by considering expansion of additional distribution areas. Due to limitations of physical/ chemical elimination, time, and cost, widely distributed species require to be eliminated and managed, mainly to restore the integrity of the ecosystem, by planting native species to reestablish the habitat.

Invasive alien plants can severely threaten biodiversity and cause economic losses in the agricultural industry; therefore, identifying the critical environmental factors related to the distribution of alien plants plays a crucial role in ecosystem management. In this study, we applied partial least squares regression (PLSR) and geographically weighted regression (GWR) to estimate the important environmental factors affecting the spread of two invasive and expansive plants, Lactuca scariola L. and Aster pilosus Willd., across South Korea. GWR provides more accurate predictions than ordinary least squares regression, and the local coefficients of GWR allow for the determination of the spatial relationships between alien plant distributions and environmental variables. Based on the model’s results, the distributions of these alien species were significantly associated with anthropogenic effects, such as human population density, residential area, and road density. Furthermore, the two alien species can establish themselves in habitats where native plants cannot thrive, owing to their broad tolerance to temperature and drought conditions. This study suggests that urban development and expansion can facilitate the invasion of these species in metropolitan cities.

Background: Cakile edentula (Bigelow) Hook. is a successful invader that has been propagating globally. In Korea, Cakile edentula was found in 2008 for the first time, in the east coast of Korean peninsula. Based on site surveys conducted thereafter, Cakile edentula has propagated in the east coast from Goseong to Jeongdongjin, Gangneung and in the west coast of city of Hwaseong of Gyeonggi-do Province, and Taeangun County of Chungcheongnam-do Province. Results: Cakile edentula has infiltrated into four different vegetation communities (syntaxa) (Calystegio soldanellae-Salsoletum komarovii Ohba, Miyawakiet Tx.1967; Elymo-caricetum Kobomugi Miyawaki 1967; Carex pumila; and Calystegia soldanella) belonging to phytosociological classes of saltwort (barilla) and coastal glehnia. Cakile edentula competes with dominant species such as the saltwort (barilla) and beach morning glory, causing qualitative changes in species composition. It also affects local ecosystems through its competition with indigenous species, causing destruction of the traditional landscape. Conclusions: However, competition of Cakile edentula with indigenous species and the resulting replacement of such species are limitedly reported. Potential competitors with Cakile edentula have not been found yet. In Northeast Asia, qualitative changes realized in local ecosystems due to invasion of Cakile edentula are significantly noticeable. These necessitate proper controls for this invasive alien species to protect and preserve coastal dune areas.