A new method of clear-air turbulence (CAT) forecasting based on the Lighthill-Ford theory of spontaneous imbalance and emission of inertia-gravity waves has been derived and applied on episodic and seasonal time scales. A scale analysis of this shallow-water theory for midlatitude synoptic-scale flows identifies advection of relative vorticity as the leading-order source term. Examination of leading-and second-order terms elucidates previous, more empirically inspired CAT forecast diagnostics. Application of the Lighthill-Ford theory to the Upper Mississippi and Ohio Valleys CAT outbreak of 9 March 2006 results in good agreement with pilot reports of turbulence. Application of Lighthill-Ford theory to CAT forecasting for the 3 November 2005-26 March 2006 period using 1-h forecasts of the Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) 2 1500 UTC model run leads to superior forecasts compared to the current operational version of the Graphical Turbulence Guidance (GTG1) algorithm, the most skillful operational CAT forecasting method in existence. The results suggest that major improvements in CAT forecasting could result if the methods presented herein become operational.

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ABSTRACT:Recent research has shown that Lighthill-Ford spontaneous gravity wave generation theory, when applied to numerical model data, can help predict areas of clear-air turbulence. It is hypothesized that this is the case because spontaneously generated atmospheric gravity waves may initiate turbulence by locally modifying the stability and wind shear. As an improvement on the original research, this paper describes the creation of an 'operational' algorithm (ULTURB) with three modifications to the original method: (1) extending the altitude range for which the method is effective downward to the top of the boundary layer, (2) adding turbulent kinetic energy production from the environment to the locally produced turbulent kinetic energy production, and, (3) transforming turbulent kinetic energy dissipation to eddy dissipation rate, the turbulence metric becoming the worldwide 'standard'. In a comparison of ULTURB with the original method and with the Graphical Turbulence Guidance second version (GTG2) automated procedure for forecasting mid-and upper-level aircraft turbulence ULTURB performed better for all turbulence intensities. Since ULTURB, unlike GTG2, is founded on a self-consistent dynamical theory, it may offer forecasters better insight into the causes of the clear-air turbulence and may ultimately enhance its predictability.

A recent requirement charged to the Aviation Weather Center (AWC) is to produce significant weather charts for aviation users with, among other forecast products, forecast locations of significant fronts. To increase forecaster productivity, the AWC decided to evaluate the possibility that fronts should be first drawn objectively. Hewson (1998) describes the basic technique which uses a variation on the Renard & Clarke (1965) frontal locator function to find the fronts. The AWC had to overcome many problems in implementing Hewson's techniques. This paper illuminates the problems and describes the AWC solutions. As a result of the AWC's success, objective frontal analyses and forecasts are now a reality, and the productivity of forecasters increased. Copyright © 2001 Royal Meteorological Society

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