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Droughts are difficult to detect and monitor. Drought indices, most commonly the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI), have been used with limited success as operational drought monitoring tools and triggers for policy responses. Recently, a new index, the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), was developed to improve drought detection and monitoring capabilities. The SPI has several characteristics that are an improvement over previous indices, including its simplicity and temporal flexibility, that allow its application for water resources on all timescales. In this article, the 1996 drought in the southern plains and southwestern United States is examined using the SPI. A series of maps are used to illustrate how the SPI would have assisted in being able to detect the onset of the drought and monitor its progression. A case study investigating the drought in greater detail for Texas is also given. The SPI demonstrated that it is a tool that should be used operationally as part of a state, regional, or national drought watch system in the United States. During the 1996 drought, the SPI detected the onset of the drought at least 1 month in advance of the PDSI. This timeliness will be invaluable for improving mitigation and response actions of state and federal government to drought-affected regions in the future.

Recent droughts in the United States have highlighted the nation's current and increasing vulnerability to this natural hazard. Drought-related impacts are also becoming more complex, as illustrated by the rapidly rising impacts in sectors such as recreation and tourism, energy, and transportation. Environmental and social consequences are also of increasing importance. Conflicts between water users and disputes between political entities on transboundary water issues are a reflection of the need for improved documentation of the consequences of extended periods of water shortage. Unfortunately, no national drought impact database exists and drought impact statistics are not routinely compiled at the state, regional, or national level. Without this information, it is an arduous task to convince policy and other decision makers of the need for additional investments in drought monitoring and prediction, mitigation, and preparedness. The National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln is addressing this problem by creating a web-based Drought Impact Reporter (DIR) that has the following primary functions: (1) to create a database archive of drought impacts information; (2) to provide an interactive map delivery system that is efficient and user-oriented; (3) to build links with governmental agencies, nongovernmental organizations, university research groups and extension programs, and others, including the public, in order to provide timely impact reports to ensure a comprehensive collection of drought impacts across all potential sectors and scales; and (4) to foster a continual process of user feedback, evaluation, assessment, and

Common weaknesses of current drought indexes were analyzed. First, most of the current indexes are not precise enough in detecting the onset, end, and accumulated stress of drought. Second, they do not effectively take into account the aggravating effects of runoff and evapotranspiration, which build up with time. Third, they have a limited usefulness in monitoring ongoing drought because they are based on a monthly time step. Fourth, most of them fail to differentiate the effects of drought on surface and subsurface water supply. A new series of indexes are proposed to solve these weaknesses and to improve drought monitoring. In the new indexes, daily, rather than monthly, time steps are used. A new concept, effective precipitation (EP), the summed value of daily precipitation with a time-dependent reduction function, is proposed as a basic tool. Three additional indexes complement EP. The first index is each day's mean of EP (MEP). This index shows climatological characteristics of precipitation as a water resource for a station or area. The second index is the deviation of EP (DEP) from the MEP. The third index is the standardized value of DEP (SEP). By using these three indexes, consecutive days of negative SEP, which can show the onset, the ending date, and the duration of a water deficit period is categorized. With the duration categorized, four additional indexes that can show drought severity are calculated: 1) accumulation of consecutive negative SEP, which shows the duration and severity of precipitation deficit together; 2) accumulated precipitation deficit, which shows precipitation departure from the normal during a defined period; 3) precipitation for the return to normal; and 4) effective drought index, a standardized index that can be used to assess drought severity worldwide. The merits and weaknesses of each index are compared. New quantified definitions on drought and its onset, end, and duration are proposed. These indexes were tested in the High Plains region of the United States from 1960 to 1996. The results were compared to historical reports of drought. From this analysis, it was concluded that the new indexes not only advanced objectivity, but also offered a number of advantages in practical use. These are 1) a more precise determination of drought duration, 2) the usefulness in monitoring an ongoing drought, and 3) the variety of ways a drought's characteristics can be described.

Abstract:The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) is now widely used throughout the world in both a research and an operational mode. For arid climates, or those with a distinct dry season where zero values are common, the SPI at short time scales is lower bounded, referring to non-normally distributed in this study. In these cases, the SPI is always greater than a certain value and fails to indicate a drought occurrence. The nationwide statistics based on our study suggest that the non-normality rates are closely related to local precipitation climates. In the eastern United States, SPI values at short time scales can be used in drought/flood monitoring and research in any season, while in the western United States, because of its distinct seasonal precipitation distribution, the appropriate usage and interpretation of this index becomes complicated. This would also be the case for all arid climates. From a mathematical point of view, the non-normally distributed SPI is caused by a high probability of no-rain cases represented in the mixed distribution that is employed in the SPI construction. From a statistical point of view, the 2-parameter gamma model used to estimate the precipitation probability density function and the limited sample size in dry areas and times would also reduce the confidence of the SPI values.On the basis of the results identified within this study, we recommend that the SPI user be cautious when applying short-time-scale SPIs in arid climatic regimes, and interpret the SPI values appropriately. In dry climates, the user should focus on the duration of the drought rather than on just its severity. It is also worth noting that the SPI results from a statistical product of the input data. This character makes it difficult to link the SPI data to the physical functioning of the Earth system.