Tropical cyclones (TC) represent a substantial threat to life and property for Caribbean and adjacent populations. The prospective increase of TC magnitudes, expressed in the 15th chapter of the IPCC AR5 report, entails a rising probability of ecological and social disasters, which were tragically exemplified by several severe Caribbean TC strikes during the past 20 years. Modern IPCC-grade climate models, however, still lack the required spatial and temporal resolution to accurately consider the underlying boundary conditions that modulate long-time TC patterns beyond the Instrumental Era. It is thus necessary to provide a synoptic mechanistic understanding regarding the origin of such long-time patterns, in order to predict reliable changes of TC magnitude and frequency under future climate scenarios. Caribbean TC records are still rare and often lack the necessary continuity and resolution to overcome these limitations. Here, we report on an annually-resolved sedimentary archive from the bottom of the Great Blue Hole (Lighthouse Reef, Belize). The TC record encompasses 1885 years and extends all existing site-specific TC archives both in terms of resolution and duration. We identified a likely connection between long-term TC patterns and climate phenomena responses to Common Era climate variations and offer a conceptual and comparative view considering several involved tropospheric and oceanographic control mechanisms such as the El-Niño-Southern-Oscillation, the North Atlantic Oscillation and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. These basin-scaled climate modes exercise internal control on TC activity by modulating the thermodynamic environment (sea-surface temperature and vertical wind shear stress dynamics) for enhanced/suppressed TC formation both on millennial (primary) and multi-decadal (secondary) time scales. We interpret the beginning of the Medieval Warm Period (MWP) as an important time interval of the Common Era record and suspect that the southward migration of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) caused, in combination with extensive hydro-climate changes, a shift in the tropical Atlantic TC regime. The TC activity in the south-western Caribbean changed in general from a stable and less active stage (100–900 CE) to a more active and variable state (1,100 CE-modern).

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Holocene fringing reef development around Bora Bora is controlled by variations in accommodation space (as a function of sea‐level and antecedent topography) and exposure to waves and currents. Subsidence ranged from 0 to 0·11 m kyr−1, and did not create significant accommodation space. A windward fringing reef started to grow 8·7 kyr bp, retrograded towards the coast over a Pleistocene fringing reef until ca 6·0 kyr bp, and then prograded towards the lagoon after sea‐level had reached its present level. The retrograding portion of the reef is dominated by corals, calcareous algae and microbialite frameworks; the prograding portion is largely detrital. The reef is up to 13·5 m thick and accreted vertically with an average rate of 3·12 m kyr−1. Lateral growth amounts to 13·3 m kyr−1. Reef corals are dominated by an inner Pocillopora assemblage and an outer Acropora assemblage. Both assemblages comprise thick crusts of coralline algae. Palaeobathymetry suggests deposition in 0 to 10 m depth. An underlying Pleistocene fringing reef formed during the sea‐level highstand of Marine Isotope Stage 5e, and is also characterized by the occurrence of corals, coralline algal crusts and microbialites. A previously investigated, leeward fringing reef started to form contemporaneously (8·78 kyr bp), but is thicker (up to 20 m) and solely prograded throughout the Holocene. A shallow Pocillopora assemblage and a deeper water Montipora assemblage were identified, but detrital facies dominate. At the Holocene reef base, only basalt was recovered. The Holocene windward–leeward differences are a consequence of less accommodation space on the eastern island side that eventually led to a more complex reef architecture. As a result of higher rates of exposure and flushing, the reef framework on the windward island side is more abundant and experienced stronger cementation. In the Pleistocene, the environmental conditions on the leeward island side were presumably unfavourable for fringing reef growth.