ObjectiveTo generate a global reference for caesarean section (CS) rates at health facilities.DesignCross‐sectional study.SettingHealth facilities from 43 countries.Population/SampleThirty eight thousand three hundred and twenty‐four women giving birth from 22 countries for model building and 10 045 875 women giving birth from 43 countries for model testing.MethodsWe hypothesised that mathematical models could determine the relationship between clinical‐obstetric characteristics and CS. These models generated probabilities of CS that could be compared with the observed CS rates. We devised a three‐step approach to generate the global benchmark of CS rates at health facilities: creation of a multi‐country reference population, building mathematical models, and testing these models.Main outcome measuresArea under the ROC curves, diagnostic odds ratio, expected CS rate, observed CS rate.ResultsAccording to the different versions of the model, areas under the ROC curves suggested a good discriminatory capacity of C‐Model, with summary estimates ranging from 0.832 to 0.844. The C‐Model was able to generate expected CS rates adjusted for the case‐mix of the obstetric population. We have also prepared an e‐calculator to facilitate use of C‐Model (www.who.int/reproductivehealth/publications/maternal_perinatal_health/c-model/en/).ConclusionsThis article describes the development of a global reference for CS rates. Based on maternal characteristics, this tool was able to generate an individualised expected CS rate for health facilities or groups of health facilities. With C‐Model, obstetric teams, health system managers, health facilities, health insurance companies, and governments can produce a customised reference CS rate for assessing use (and overuse) of CS.Tweetable abstractThe C‐Model provides a customized benchmark for caesarean section rates in health facilities and systems.

BackgroundEscalation in the global rates of labour interventions, particularly cesarean section and oxytocin augmentation, has renewed interest in a better understanding of natural labour progression. Methodological advancements in statistical and computational techniques addressing the limitations of pioneer studies have led to novel findings and triggered a re-evaluation of current labour practices. As part of the World Health Organization's Better Outcomes in Labour Difficulty (BOLD) project, which aimed to develop a new labour monitoring-to-action tool, we examined the patterns of labour progression as depicted by cervical dilatation over time in a cohort of women in Nigeria and Uganda who gave birth vaginally following a spontaneous labour onset.Methods and findingsThis was a prospective, multicentre, cohort study of 5,606 women with singleton, vertex, term gestation who presented at ≤ 6 cm of cervical dilatation following a spontaneous labour onset that resulted in a vaginal birth with no adverse birth outcomes in 13 hospitals across Nigeria and Uganda. We independently applied survival analysis and multistate Markov models to estimate the duration of labour centimetre by centimetre until 10 cm and the cumulative duration of labour from the cervical dilatation at admission through 10 cm. Multistate Markov and nonlinear mixed models were separately used to construct average labour curves. All analyses were conducted according to three parity groups: parity = 0 (n = 2,166), parity = 1 (n = 1,488), and parity = 2+ (n = 1,952). We performed sensitivity analyses to assess the impact of oxytocin augmentation on labour progression by re-examining the progression patterns after excluding women with augmented labours. Labour was augmented with oxytocin in 40% of nulliparous and 28% of multiparous women. The median time to advance by 1 cm exceeded 1 hour until 5 cm was reached in both nulliparous and multiparous women. Based on a 95th percentile threshold, nulliparous women may take up to 7 hours to progress from 4 to 5 cm and over 3 hours to progress from 5 to 6 cm. Median cumulative duration of labour indicates that nulliparous women admitted at 4 cm, 5 cm, and 6 cm reached 10 cm within an expected time frame if the dilatation rate was ≥ 1 cm/hour, but their corresponding 95th percentiles show that labour could last up to 14, 11, and 9 hours, respectively. Substantial differences exist between actual plots of labour progression of individual women and the ‘average labour curves’ derived from study population-level data. Exclusion of women with augmented labours from the study population resulted in slightly faster labour progression patterns.ConclusionsCervical dilatation during labour in the slowest-yet-normal women can progress more slowly than the widely accepted benchmark of 1 cm/hour, irrespective of parity. Interventions to expedite labour to conform to a cervical dilatation threshold of 1 cm/hour may be inappropriate, especially when applied before 5 cm in nulliparous and multiparous women. Averaged labour c...

A simple analytical framework to study the molecular quasispecies evolution of finite populations is proposed, in which the population is assumed to be a random combination of the constituent molecules in each generation, i.e., linkage disequilibrium at the population level is neglected. In particular, for the single-sharp-peak replication landscape we investigate the dependence of the error threshold on the population size and find that the replication accuracy at the threshold increases linearly with the reciprocal of the population size for sufficiently large populations. Furthermore, in the deterministic limit our formulation yields the exact steady-state of the quasispecies model, indicating then that the population composition is a random combination of the molecules.

BackgroundRegional networking between services that provide mental health care in Brazil’s decentralized public health system is challenging, partly due to the simultaneous existence of services managed by municipal and state authorities and a lack of efficient and transparent mechanisms for continuous and updated communication between them. Since 2011, the Ribeirao Preto Medical School and the XIII Regional Health Department of the Sao Paulo state, Brazil, have been developing and implementing a web-based information system to facilitate an integrated care throughout a public regional mental health care network.Case presentationAfter a profound on-site analysis, the structure of the network was identified and a web-based information system for psychiatric admissions and discharges was developed and implemented using a socio-technical approach. An information technology team liaised with mental health professionals, health-service managers, municipal and state health secretariats and judicial authorities. Primary care, specialized community services, general emergency and psychiatric wards services, that comprise the regional mental healthcare network, were identified and the system flow was delineated. The web-based system overcame the fragmentation of the healthcare system and addressed service specific needs, enabling: detailed patient information sharing; active coordination of the processes of psychiatric admissions and discharges; real-time monitoring; the patients’ status reports; the evaluation of the performance of each service and the whole network. During a 2-year period of operation, it registered 137 services, 480 health care professionals and 4271 patients, with a mean number of 2835 accesses per month. To date the system is successfully operating and further expanding.ConclusionWe have successfully developed and implemented an acceptable, useful and transparent web-based information system for a regional mental healthcare service network in a medium-income country with a decentralized public health system. Systematic collaboration between an information technology team and a wide range of stakeholders is essential for the system development and implementation.

BackgroundThe partograph is currently the main tool available to support decision-making of health professionals during labour. However, the rate of appropriate use of the partograph is disappointingly low. Apart from limitations that are associated with partograph use, evidence of positive impact on labour-related health outcomes is lacking. The main goal of this study is to develop a Simplified, Effective, Labour Monitoring-to-Action (SELMA) tool. The primary objectives are: to identify the essential elements of intrapartum monitoring that trigger the decision to use interventions aimed at preventing poor labour outcomes; to develop a simplified, monitoring-to-action algorithm for labour management; and to compare the diagnostic performance of SELMA and partograph algorithms as tools to identify women who are likely to develop poor labour-related outcomes.Methods/DesignA prospective cohort study will be conducted in eight health facilities in Nigeria and Uganda (four facilities from each country). All women admitted for vaginal birth will comprise the study population (estimated sample size: 7,812 women). Data will be collected on maternal characteristics on admission, labour events and pregnancy outcomes by trained research assistants at the participating health facilities. Prediction models will be developed to identify women at risk of intrapartum-related perinatal death or morbidity (primary outcomes) throughout the course of labour. These predictions models will be used to assemble a decision-support tool that will be able to suggest the best course of action to avert adverse outcomes during the course of labour. To develop this set of prediction models, we will use up-to-date techniques of prognostic research, including identification of important predictors, assigning of relative weights to each predictor, estimation of the predictive performance of the model through calibration and discrimination, and determination of its potential for application using internal validation techniques.DiscussionThis research offers an opportunity to revisit the theoretical basis of the partograph. It is envisioned that the final product would help providers overcome the challenging tasks of promptly interpreting complex labour information and deriving appropriate clinical actions, and thus increase efficiency of the care process, enhance providers’ competence and ultimately improve labour outcomes.Please see related articles ‘http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12978-015-0027-6’ and ‘http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12978-015-0028-5’.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12978-015-0029-4) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

BackgroundThe aim of this study was to determine whether PRENACEL (a bi-directional, mobile-phone based, short text message service (SMS)) increases the coverage of recommended antenatal care (ANC) practices.MethodsA parallel, cluster-randomized trial in which 20 public primary Health Care Units (PHCUs) were randomly allocated to the intervention (10 PHCUs) or control (10 PHCUs) group. The study population included pregnant women aged 18 or above with a gestational age of 20 weeks or less. Pregnant women receiving ANC in intervention PHCUs were invited through leaflets and posters to register in PRENACEL. Women who registered in PRENACEL received a weekly set of short text messages with health education and health promotion content related to pregnancy and childbirth and were also able to clarify ANC queries through SMS. All women received routine ANC. The primary outcome was the proportion of women with high ANC Score, a composite measure of coverage of recommended ANC practices. Chi-square or Fisher’s exact tests and multivariate log-binomial regression were used to analyze the outcomes.ResultsA total of 1210 eligible women received ANC in the participating PHCUs and took part of this study (770 in the intervention group and 440 in the control group). 20.4% (157/770) of intervention-group women registered in PRENACEL, but only 116 read all messages (73.9% of women who registered in PRENACEL, 116/157). The adjusted intention-to-treat analysis suggested no difference between intervention and control groups in the primary outcome (Adjusted Relative Risk (AdjRR): 1.05 (95% Confidence Interval (CI): 1.00–1.09). Both crude and adjusted per-protocol analysis suggested a positive effect of PRENACEL (Crude RR (95% CI): 1.14 (1.06–1.22), AdjRR (95% CI): 1.12 (1.05–1.21). The multivariate analysis also suggests that the PRENACEL group (women who read all SMS) had higher mean ANC score [48.5 (±4.2) vs 45.2 (±8.7), p < 0.01], higher proportion of women with ≥6 ANC visits (96.9% vs. 84.8%, p = 0.01), and higher rates of syphilis testing (40.5% vs. 24.8%, p = 0.03) and HIV testing (46.6% vs. 25.7%, p < 0.01) during ANC.ConclusionsA bi-directional, mobile-phone based, short text message service is potentially useful to improve the coverage of recommended ANC practices, including syphilis and HIV testing.Trial registrationClinical trial registry: RBR-54zf73, U1111–1163-7761.ResumoIntroduçãoO objetivo deste estudo foi determinar se o PRENACEL, um serviço bidirecional de mensagens curtas de texto (SMS) com base na telefonia celular, aumenta a cobertura das práticas recomendadas de cuidados pré-natais (PN).Métodosum ensaio paralelo, aleatorizado por conglomerados, no qual 20 unidades básicas de saúde (UBS) foram alocadas aleatoriamente para o grupo de intervenção (10 UBS) ou controle (10 UBS). A população estudada incluiu gestantes com idade igual ou superior a 18 anos com idade gestacional de 20 semanas ou menos. As gestantes que receberam PN em UBS intervenção foram convidadas através de folhetos e cartazes para se inscreverem n...

Introduction: Five months after the first confirmed case of COVID-19 in Brazil, the country has the second highest number of cases in the world. Without any scientifically proven drug or vaccine available combined with COVID-19's high transmissivity, slowing down the spread of the infection is a challenge. In an attempt to save the economy, the Brazilian government is slowly beginning to allow nonessential services to reopen for in-person customers. Methods: In this study, we analyze, based on data analysis and statistics, how other countries evolve and under which conditions they decided to resume normal activity. In addition, due to the heterogeneity of Brazil, we explore Brazilian data of COVID-19 from the State Health Secretaries to evaluate the situation of the pandemic within the states. Results: Results show that while other countries have flattened their curves and present low numbers of active cases, Brazil continues to see an increase in COVID-19 patients. Furthermore, a number of important states are easing restrictions despite a high percentage of confirmed cases. Conclusions: All analyses show that Brazil is not ready for reopening, and the premature easing of restrictions may increase the number of COVID-19-related deaths and cause the collapse of the public health system.

ObjectiveTo assess the accuracy of the World Health Organization (WHO) partograph alert line and other candidate predictors in the identification of women at risk of developing severe adverse birth outcomes.DesignA facility‐based, multicentre, prospective cohort study.SettingThirteen maternity hospitals located in Nigeria and Uganda.PopulationA total of 9995 women with spontaneous onset of labour presenting at cervical dilatation of ≤6 cm or undergoing induction of labour.MethodsResearch assistants collected data on sociodemographic, anthropometric, obstetric, and medical characteristics of study participants at hospital admission, multiple assessments during labour, and interventions during labour and childbirth. The alert line and action line, intrapartum monitoring parameters, and customised labour curves were assessed using sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative likelihood ratios, diagnostic odds ratio, and the J statistic.OutcomesSevere adverse birth outcomes.ResultsThe rate of severe adverse birth outcomes was 2.2% (223 women with severe adverse birth outcomes), the rate of augmentation of labour was 35.1% (3506 women), and the caesarean section rate was 13.2% (1323 women). Forty‐nine percent of women in labour crossed the alert line (4163/8489). All reference labour curves had a diagnostic odds ratio ranging from 1.29 to 1.60. The J statistic was less than 10% for all reference curves.ConclusionsOur findings suggest that labour is an extremely variable phenomenon, and the assessment of cervical dilatation over time is a poor predictor of severe adverse birth outcomes. The validity of a partograph alert line based on the ‘one‐centimetre per hour’ rule should be re‐evaluated.FundingBill & Melinda Gates Foundation, United States Agency for International Development (USAID), UNDP/UNFPA/UNICEF/WHO/World Bank Special Programme of Research, Development and Research Training in Human Reproduction (HRP), and WHO (A65879).Tweetable abstractThe alert line in check: results from a WHO study.