No abstract

No abstract

Operative seismic aftershock risk forecasting can be particularly useful for rapid decision-making in the presence of an ongoing sequence. In such a context, limit state first-excursion probabilities (risk) for the forecasting interval (a day) can represent the potential for progressive state of damage in a structure. This work lays out a performance-based framework for adaptive aftershock risk assessment in the immediate post-mainshock environment. A time-dependent structural performance variable is adopted in order to measure the cumulative damage in a structure. A set of event-dependent fragility curves as a function of the first-mode spectral acceleration for a prescribed limit state is calculated by employing back-to-back nonlinear dynamic analyses. An epidemic-type aftershock sequence model is employed for estimating the spatio-temporal evolution of aftershocks. The event-dependent fragility curves for a given limit state are then integrated together with the probability distribution of aftershock spectral acceleration based on the epidemic-type aftershock sequence aftershock hazard. The daily probability of limit state first-excursion is finally calculated as a weighted combination of the sequence of limit state probabilities conditioned on the number of aftershocks. As a numerical example, daily aftershock risk is calculated for the L'Aquila 2009 aftershock sequence (central Italy). A representative three-story reinforced concrete frame with infill panels, which has cyclic strength and stiffness degradation, is used in order to evaluate the progressive damage. It is observed that the proposed framework leads to a sound forecasting of limit state first-excursion in the structure for two limit states of significant damage and near collapse

The design of advanced composite structures or components subjected to dynamic loadings requires a deep understanding of the damage and degradation mechanisms occurring within the composite material. The present paper deals with the numerical simulation of low-velocity impact tests on glass fabric/epoxy laminates through the LS-DYNA Finite Element (FE) code. Two laminates of different thickness were subjected to transverse impact at different energy levels and modelled by FE. Solid finite elements combined with orthotropic failure criteria were used to model the composite failure and stress based contact failure between plies were adopted to model the delamination mechanism. The final simulation results showed a good correlation with experimental data in terms of both force-displacement curves and material damage.

The post-earthquake assessment of existing structures can be further complicated by the progressive damage induced by the occurrence of a sequence of aftershocks. This work presents a simple methodology for the calculation of the probability of exceeding a certain limit state in a given interval of time. The time-decaying mean daily rate of occurrence of significant aftershock events is modeled by employing a site-specific aftershock model for the L’Aquila 2009 aftershock sequence (central Italy). The number of aftershock events occurring in a given interval of time elapsed after the main event is modeled using a non-homogenous Poisson model. An equivalent single-degree of freedom structure with cyclic stiffness degradation is used in order to evaluate the progressive damage caused by a sequence of aftershock events. Given the time history of the main-shock and the residual damage caused by it, the probability of exceeding a set of discrete limit states in a given interval of time is calculated. Of particular importance is the time-variant probability of exceeding the limit state in a 24-h (a day) interval of time which can be used as a proxy for the life-safety considerations regarding the re-occupancy of the structure and to complement the results of visual inspections for prioritizing the emergency operations. The method presented herein can also be used in an adaptive manner, progressively conditioned on the time-histories of aftershock events following the main-shock and on the corresponding residual damage caused by them

No abstract

One of the most important tasks of urban and hazard planning is to mitigate the damages and minimize the costs of the recovery process after catastrophic events. In this context, the capability of urban systems and communities to recover from disasters is referred to as resilience. Despite the problem of resilience quantification having received a lot of attention, a mathematical definition of the resilience of an urban community, which takes into account the social aspects of an urban environment, has not yet been identified. In this article, we provide and test a methodology for the assessment of urban resilience to catastrophic events which aims at bridging the gap between the engineering and the ecosystem approaches to resilience. We propose to model an urban system by means of different hybrid social-physical complex networks, obtained by enriching the urban street network with additional information about the social and physical constituents of a city, namely citizens, residential buildings, and services. Then, we introduce a class of efficiency measures on these hybrid networks, inspired by the definition of global efficiency given in complex network theory, and we show that these measures can be effectively used to quantify the resilience of an urban system, by comparing their respective values before and after a catastrophic event and during the reconstruction process. As a case study, we consider simulated earthquakes in the city of Acerra, Italy, and we use these efficiency measures to compare the ability of different reconstruction strategies in restoring the original performance of the urban syste

No abstract