This paper provides evidence on the short-run reactions of an emerging financial market to monetary policy announcements. An instrumental variable estimation approach is employed, based on the 'identification through heteroscedasticity' technique, to estimate the impact of a change in the official interest rate and its surprise component on asset prices in Poland. The recently introduced methodology controls for possible feedback relationships between financial variables and official interest rate changes. In this analysis, the short-term interest rates respond significantly to official interest rate changes, but neither the long-term interest rates, stock indices, nor foreign exchange rates react to monetary announcements in the expected direction.
In this paper, we introduce the concept of causality in the Markov switching framework into the analysis of financial inter-market dependencies. We extend the methodology of testing for financial spillovers between capital markets by explicitly defining contagion, spillovers and independence, and providing statistics to test for the existence of causality. We apply the methodology to stock index returns on the Japanese (Nikkei 225) and the Hong Kong (HSI) markets during the Asian crisis and find no evidence of contagion between the markets, but strong evidence of feedback spillovers between them.
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