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This paper provides evidence on the short-run reactions of an emerging financial market to monetary policy announcements. An instrumental variable estimation approach is employed, based on the 'identification through heteroscedasticity' technique, to estimate the impact of a change in the official interest rate and its surprise component on asset prices in Poland. The recently introduced methodology controls for possible feedback relationships between financial variables and official interest rate changes. In this analysis, the short-term interest rates respond significantly to official interest rate changes, but neither the long-term interest rates, stock indices, nor foreign exchange rates react to monetary announcements in the expected direction.

In this paper, we introduce the concept of causality in the Markov switching framework into the analysis of financial inter-market dependencies. We extend the methodology of testing for financial spillovers between capital markets by explicitly defining contagion, spillovers and independence, and providing statistics to test for the existence of causality. We apply the methodology to stock index returns on the Japanese (Nikkei 225) and the Hong Kong (HSI) markets during the Asian crisis and find no evidence of contagion between the markets, but strong evidence of feedback spillovers between them.

Abstract:Several studies have calculated the fiscal and macroeconomic costs suffered by countries during banking crises. However, it remains unclear whether it is crises that cause macroeconomic slowdowns and recessions, or whether the recessions themselves initiate banking crises and are responsible for all costs to the economy. In the latter scenario, crises do not have any effect on economic growth beyond that caused by recessions. We propose a simple method for calculating the macroeconomic costs of banking crises that controls for the impact of recessions. In contrast to earlier research, we estimate the cost of crises based on the size of banking crises. The extent of a crisis is measured using banking sector aggregates. The results, based on our method and data from over 100 banking crises, suggest that the size of a crisis matters for economic growth. Lower credit, deposit and money growth during crises cause GDP growth to decline. JEL Classification: C32, E51, G21, G15

In this paper, we assess evidence on international monetary policy spillovers to domestic bank lending in Chile, Korea, and Poland, using confidential bank-level data and different measures of monetary policy shocks in relevant currency areas. These three emerging market economies are small and open, their banking systems do not have significant presence overseas, and they can be considered as price takers in the world economy. Such features allow for better identification of binding financial constraints and foreign monetary policy shocks. We find that the monetary policy shocks spill over into domestic bank lending, modifying the degree to which financial frictions tighten or relax, and this evidence is consistent with international bank lending and portfolio channels.

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