A major challenge in vaccinology is to prospectively determine vaccine efficacy. Here we have used a systems biology approach to identify early gene ‘signatures’ that predicted immune responses in humans vaccinated with yellow fever vaccine YF-17D. Vaccination induced genes that regulate virus innate sensing and type I interferon production. Computational analyses identified a gene signature, including complement protein C1qB and eukaryotic translation initiation factor 2 alpha kinase 4—an orchestrator of the integrated stress response—that correlated with and predicted YF-17D CD8+ T cell responses with up to 90% accuracy in an independent, blinded trial. A distinct signature, including B cell growth factor TNFRS17, predicted the neutralizing antibody response with up to 100% accuracy. These data highlight the utility of systems biology approaches in predicting vaccine efficacy.

Human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) sequences that pre-date the recognition of AIDS are critical to defining the time of origin and the timescale of virus evolution1,2. A viral sequence from 1959 (ZR59) is the oldest known HIV-1 infection1. Other historically documented sequences, important calibration points to convert evolutionary distance into time, are lacking, however; ZR59 is the only one sampled prior to 1976. Here we report the amplification and characterization of viral sequences from a Bouin's-fixed paraffin-embedded lymph node biopsy specimen obtained in 1960 from an adult female in Léopoldville, Belgian Congo (now Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of the Congo [DRC]), and we use it to conduct the first comparative evolutionary genetic study of early pre-AIDS epidemic HIV-1 group M viruses. Phylogenetic analyses position this viral sequence (DRC60) closest to the ancestral node of subtype A (excluding A2). Relaxed molecular clock analyses incorporating DRC60 and ZR59 date the M group's most recent common ancestor near the beginning of the 20th century. The sizeable genetic distance between DRC60 and ZR59 directly demonstrates that diversification of HIV-1 in west-Central Africa occurred long before the recognized AIDS pandemic. The recovery of viral gene sequences from decades-old paraffin-embedded tissues opens the door to a detailed paleovirological investigation of the evolutionary history of HIV-1 that is not accessible by other methods.

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The emergence of HIV-1 group M subtype B in North American men who have sex with men (MSM) was a key turning point in the HIV/AIDS pandemic. Phylogenetic studies have suggested cryptic subtype B circulation in the United States (US) throughout the 1970s2,3 and an even older presence in the Caribbean3. However, these timing and geographical inferences, based upon partial HIV-1 genomes that postdate the recognition of AIDS in 1981, remain contentious1,4 and the earliest movements of the virus within the US are unknown. We serologically screened >2000 1970s serum samples and developed a highly sensitive new approach for recovering viral RNA from degraded archival samples. Here, we report eight coding-complete genomes from US serum samples from 1978–79 – eight of the nine oldest HIV-1 group M genomes to date. This early, full-genome ‘snapshot’ reveals the US HIV-1 epidemic exhibited surprisingly extensive genetic diversity in the 1970s but also provides strong evidence of its emergence from a pre-existing Caribbean epidemic. Bayesian phylogenetic analyses estimate the jump to the US at ~1970 and place the ancestral US virus in New York City with 0.99 posterior probability support, strongly suggesting this was the crucial hub of early US HIV/AIDS diversification. Logistic growth coalescent models reveal epidemic doubling times of 0.86 and 1.12 years for the US and Caribbean, respectively, suggesting rapid early expansion in each location1. Comparisons with more recent data reveal many of these insights to be unattainable without archival, full-genome sequences. We also recovered the HIV-1 genome from the individual known as ‘Patient 0’5 and show there is neither biological nor historical evidence he was the primary case in the US or for subtype B as a whole. We discuss the genesis and persistence of this belief in the light of these evolutionary insights.

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Background The live attenuated yellow fever vaccine 17D (YF-17D) is one of the most effective vaccines. Despite its excellent safety record, some cases of viscerotropic adverse events develop, which are sometimes fatal. The mechanisms underlying such events remain a mystery. Here, we present an analysis of the immunologic and genetic factors driving disease in a 64-year-old male who developed viscerotropic symptoms. Methods We obtained clinical, serologic, virologic, immunologic and genetic data on this case patient. Results Viral RNA was detected in the blood 33 days after vaccination, in contrast to the expected clearance of virus by day 7 after vaccination in healthy vaccinees. Vaccination induced robust antigen-specific T and B cell responses, which suggested that persistent virus was not due to adaptive immunity of suboptimal magnitude. The genes encoding OAS1, OAS2, TLR3, and DC-SIGN, which mediate antiviral innate immunity, were wild type. However, there were heterozygous genetic polymorphisms in chemokine receptor CCR5, and its ligand RANTES, which influence the migration of effector T cells and CD14+CD16bright monocytes to tissues. Consistent with this, there was a 200-fold increase in the number of CD14+CD16bright monocytes in the blood during viremia and even several months after virus clearance. Conclusion; In this patient, viscerotropic disease was not due to the impaired magnitude of adaptive immunity but instead to anomalies in the innate immune system and a possible disruption of the CCR5-RANTES axis.