The stratospheric Arctic vortex (SAV) plays a critical role in forecasting cold winters in northern mid-latitudes. Its influence on the tropospheric mid- and high-latitudes has attracted growing attention in recent years. However, the trend in the SAV during the recent two decades is still unknown. Here, using three reanalysis datasets, we found that the SAV intensity during 1998–2016 has a strengthening trend, in contrast to the weakening trend before that period. Approximately 25% of this strengthening is contributed by the warming of sea-surface temperature (SST) over the central North Pacific (CNP). Observational analysis and model experiments show that the warmed CNP SST tends to weaken the Aleutian low, subsequently weakening the upward propagation of wavenumber-1 planetary wave flux, further strengthening the SAV. This strengthened SAV suggests important implications in understanding the Arctic warming amplification and in predicting the surface temperature changes over the northern continents.

Article:Hu, D, Tian, W, Xie, F et al. (2 more authors) (2014) Effects of meridional sea surface temperature changes on stratospheric temperature and circulation. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 31 (4). 888 -900. ISSN 0256-1530 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-013-3152-6 eprints@whiterose.ac.uk https://eprints.whiterose.ac.uk/ Reuse Unless indicated otherwise, fulltext items are protected by copyright with all rights reserved. The copyright exception in section 29 of the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988 allows the making of a single copy solely for the purpose of non-commercial research or private study within the limits of fair dealing. The publisher or other rights-holder may allow further reproduction and re-use of this version -refer to the White Rose Research Online record for this item. Where records identify the publisher as the copyright holder, users can verify any specific terms of use on the publisher's website. TakedownIf you consider content in White Rose Research Online to be in breach of UK law, please notify us by emailing eprints@whiterose.ac.uk including the URL of the record and the reason for the withdrawal request. ABSTRACT Using a state-of-the-art chemistry-climate model, we analyzed the atmospheric responses to increases in sea surface temperature (SST). The results showed that increases in SST and the SST meridional gradient could intensify the subtropical westerly jets and significantly weaken the northern polar vortex. In the model runs, global uniform SST increases produced a more significant impact on the southern stratosphere than the northern stratosphere, while SST gradient increases produced a more significant impact on the northern stratosphere. The asymmetric responses of the northern and southern polar stratosphere to SST meridional gradient changes were found to be mainly due to different wave properties and transmissions in the northern and southern atmosphere. Although SST increases may give rise to stronger waves, the results showed that the effect of SST increases on the vertical propagation of tropospheric waves into the stratosphere will vary with height and latitude and be sensitive to SST meridional gradient changes. Both uniform and non-uniform SST increases accelerated the large-scale Brewer-Dobson circulation (BDC), but the gradient increases of SST between 60 • S and 60 • N resulted in younger mean age-of-air in the stratosphere and a larger increase in tropical upwelling, with a much higher tropopause than from a global uniform 1.0 K SST increase.

This paper uses a state-of-the-art general circulation model to study the impacts of the stratospheric ozone depletion from 1980 to 2000 and the expected partial ozone recovery from 2000 to 2020 on the propagation of planetary waves in December, January, and February. In the Southern Hemisphere (SH), the stratospheric ozone depletion leads to a cooler and stronger Antarctic stratosphere, while the stratospheric ozone recovery has the opposite effects. In the Northern Hemisphere (NH), the impacts of the stratospheric ozone depletion on polar stratospheric temperature are not opposite to that of the stratospheric ozone recovery; i.e., the stratospheric ozone depletion causes a weak cooling and the stratospheric ozone recovery causes a statistically significant cooling. The stratospheric ozone depletion leads to a weakening of the Arctic polar vortex, while the stratospheric ozone recovery leads to a strengthening of the Arctic polar vortex. The cooling of the Arctic polar vortex is found to be dynamically induced via modulating the planetary wave activity by stratospheric ozone increases. Particularly interesting is that stratospheric ozone changes have opposite effects on the stationary and transient wave fluxes in the NH stratosphere. The analysis of the wave refractive index and Eliassen-Palm flux in the NH indicates (1) that the wave refraction in the stratosphere cannot fully explain wave flux changes in the Arctic stratosphere and (2) that stratospheric ozone changes can cause changes in wave propagation in the northern midlatitude troposphere which in turn affect wave fluxes in the NH stratosphere. In the SH, the radiative cooling (warming) caused by stratospheric ozone depletion (recovery) produces a larger (smaller) meridional temperature gradient in the midlatitude upper troposphere, accompanied by larger (smaller) zonal wind vertical shear and larger (smaller) vertical gradients of buoyancy frequency. Hence, there are more (fewer) transient waves propagating into the stratosphere. The dynamical warming (cooling) caused by stratospheric ozone decreases (increases) partly offsets their radiative cooling (warming).

Using reanalysis datasets and numerical simulations, the relationship between the stratospheric Arctic vortex (SAV) and the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) on decadal time scales was investigated. A significant in-phase relationship between the PDO and SAV on decadal time scales during 1950–2014 is found, that is, the North Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) cooling (warming) associated with the positive (negative) PDO phases is closely related to the strengthening (weakening) of the SAV. This decadal relationship between the North Pacific SST and SAV is different from their relationship on subdecadal time scales. Observational and modeling results both demonstrate that the decadal variation in the SAV is strongly affected by the North Pacific SSTs related to the PDO via modifying the upward propagation of planetary wavenumber-1 waves from the troposphere to the stratosphere. The decreased SSTs over the North Pacific tend to result in a deepened Aleutian low along with a strengthened jet stream over the North Pacific, which excites a weakened western Pacific pattern and a strengthened Pacific–North American pattern. These tropospheric circulation anomalies are in accordance with the decreased refractive index (RI) at middle and high latitudes in the northern stratosphere during the positive PDO phase. The increased RI at high latitudes in the upper troposphere impedes the planetary wavenumber-1 wave from propagating into the stratosphere, and in turn strengthens the SAV. The responses of the RI to the PDO are mainly contributions of the changes in the meridional gradient of the zonal-mean potential vorticity via alteration of the baroclinic term .