BackgroundInternational travel plays a role in the spread of HIV-1 across Europe. It is, however, not known whether international travel is more important for spread of the epidemic as compared to endogenous infections within single countries. In this study, phylogenetic associations among HIV of newly diagnosed patients were determined across Europe.ResultsData came from the SPREAD programme which collects samples of newly diagnosed patients that are representative for national HIV epidemics. 4260 pol sequences from 25 European countries and Israel collected in 2002–2007 were included.We identified 457 clusters including 1330 persons (31.2% of all patients). The cluster size ranged between 2 and 28. A number of 987 patients (74.2%) were part of a cluster that consisted only of patients originating from the same country. In addition, 135 patients (10.2%) were in a cluster including only individuals from neighboring countries. Finally, 208 patients (15.6%) clustered with individuals from countries without a common border. Clustering with patients from the same country was less prevalent in patients being infected with B subtype (P-value <0.0001), in men who have sex with men (P-value <0.0001), and in recently infected patients (P-value =0.045).ConclusionsOur findings indicate that the transmission of HIV-1 in Europe is predominantly occurring between patients from the same country. This could have implications for HIV-1 transmission prevention programmes. Because infections through travelling between countries is not frequently observed it is important to have good surveillance of the national HIV-1 epidemics.

BackgroundSeveral decision support systems have been developed to interpret HIV-1 drug resistance genotyping results. This study compares the ability of the most commonly used systems (ANRS, Rega, and Stanford's HIVdb) to predict virological outcome at 12, 24, and 48 weeks.Methodology/Principal FindingsIncluded were 3763 treatment-change episodes (TCEs) for which a HIV-1 genotype was available at the time of changing treatment with at least one follow-up viral load measurement. Genotypic susceptibility scores for the active regimens were calculated using scores defined by each interpretation system. Using logistic regression, we determined the association between the genotypic susceptibility score and proportion of TCEs having an undetectable viral load (<50 copies/ml) at 12 (8–16) weeks (2152 TCEs), 24 (16–32) weeks (2570 TCEs), and 48 (44–52) weeks (1083 TCEs). The Area under the ROC curve was calculated using a 10-fold cross-validation to compare the different interpretation systems regarding the sensitivity and specificity for predicting undetectable viral load. The mean genotypic susceptibility score of the systems was slightly smaller for HIVdb, with 1.92±1.17, compared to Rega and ANRS, with 2.22±1.09 and 2.23±1.05, respectively. However, similar odds ratio's were found for the association between each-unit increase in genotypic susceptibility score and undetectable viral load at week 12; 1.6 [95% confidence interval 1.5–1.7] for HIVdb, 1.7 [1.5–1.8] for ANRS, and 1.7 [1.9–1.6] for Rega. Odds ratio's increased over time, but remained comparable (odds ratio's ranging between 1.9–2.1 at 24 weeks and 1.9–2.2 at 48 weeks). The Area under the curve of the ROC did not differ between the systems at all time points; p = 0.60 at week 12, p = 0.71 at week 24, and p = 0.97 at week 48.Conclusions/SignificanceThree commonly used HIV drug resistance interpretation systems ANRS, Rega and HIVdb predict virological response at 12, 24, and 48 weeks, after change of treatment to the same extent.

BackgroundOne out of ten newly diagnosed patients in Europe was infected with a virus carrying a drug resistant mutation. We analysed the patterns over time for transmitted drug resistance mutations (TDRM) using data from the European Spread program.MethodsClinical, epidemiological and virological data from 4317 patients newly diagnosed with HIV-1 infection between 2002 and 2007 were analysed. Patients were enrolled using a pre-defined sampling strategy.ResultsThe overall prevalence of TDRM in this period was 8.9% (95% CI: 8.1-9.8). Interestingly, significant changes over time in TDRM caused by the different drug classes were found. Whereas nucleoside resistance mutations remained constant at 5%, a significant decline in protease inhibitors resistance mutations was observed, from 3.9% in 2002 to 1.6% in 2007 (p = 0.001). In contrast, resistance to non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NNRTIs) doubled from 2.0% in 2002 to 4.1% in 2007 (p = 0.004) with 58% of viral strains carrying a K103N mutation. Phylogenetic analysis showed that these temporal changes could not be explained by large clusters of TDRM.ConclusionDuring the years 2002 to 2007 transmitted resistance to NNRTI has doubled to 4% in Europe. The frequent use of NNRTI in first-line regimens and the clinical impact of NNRTI mutations warrants continued monitoring.

BackgroundIn Europe, a continuous programme (SPREAD) has been in place for ten years to study transmission of drug resistant HIV. We analysed time trends of transmitted drug resistance mutations (TDRM) in relation to the risk behaviour reported.MethodsHIV-1 patients newly diagnosed in 27 countries from 2002 through 2007 were included. Inclusion was representative for risk group and geographical distribution in the participating countries in Europe. Trends over time were calculated by logistic regression.ResultsFrom the 4317 patients included, the majority was men-having-sex-with-men -MSM (2084, 48%), followed by heterosexuals (1501, 35%) and injection drug users (IDU) (355, 8%). MSM were more often from Western Europe origin, infected with subtype B virus, and recently infected (<1 year) (p<0.001). The prevalence of TDRM was highest in MSM (prevalence of 11.1%), followed by heterosexuals (6.6%) and IDU (5.1%, p<0.001). TDRM was predominantly ascribed to nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NRTI) with a prevalence of 6.6% in MSM, 3.3% in heterosexuals and 2.0% in IDU (p = 0.001). A significant increase in resistance to non- nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NNRTIs) and a decrease in resistance to protease inhibitors was observed in MSM (p = 0.008 and p = 0.006, respectively), but not in heterosexual patients (p = 0.68 and p = 0.14, respectively).ConclusionsMSM showed to have significantly higher TDRM prevalence compared to heterosexuals and IDU. The increasing NNRTI resistance in MSM is likely to negatively influence the therapy response of first-line therapy, as most include NNRTI drugs.