In the European Union (EU), homogenous inflation forces are expected to prevail because of increased economic integration, especially after the creation of a single currency area. This expectation is directly related to the issue of inflation convergence, which has gained increasing attention by both academics and policy makers in Europe. Although the examination of core inflation is of great importance for macroeconomic policy, the role of disaggregate inflation indices, and especially food inflation, has also been emphasized in the literature. However, the issue of food inflation convergence has been largely ignored to date in empirical studies. This study explores the evolving distribution of food inflation rates in the EU-25 member states using distribution dynamics analysis and covering the period from January 1997 to March 2011. This analysis assumes that each country represents an independent observation, providing unique information that can be used to estimate the transition dynamics of inflation. We show that spatial autocorrelation prevails inside the EU-25, and, therefore, the independency assumption is violated. To ensure spatial independence, the Getis spatial filter is implemented prior to a distribution dynamics analysis. The results of this analysis confirm the existence of convergence trends, which are even clearer after the spatial filtering procedure, indicating, on the one hand, the influence of spatial effects on food inflation and, on the other hand, the effectiveness of the Getis spatial filtering technique.
A key issue in CAP strategic planning in Greece is the treatment of historical entitlements. An unequal level of payments per hectare is difficult to justify in terms of the CAP’s rationale, and so the abolishment of these entitlements seems to be the most reasonable option. However, for historical reasons, this abolishment may result in a transfer of payments from smaller to larger farms and between different agricultural sub-sectors which could in turn lead to negative effects on the incomes of small farms and lead to farmers leaving the sector. We simulate the change to a flat rate payment in order to quantify these effects, then explore the possibility of employing the new obligatory redistribution measure, termed complementary income support, to mitigate any negative effects. We conclude that redistribution is, indeed, a powerful tool for fine-tuning decoupled payments if historical entitlements are to be abolished.
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