Climate change projections for the Mediterranean basin predict a continuous increase in extreme drought and heat episodes, which will affect forest dynamics, structure and composition. Understanding how climate influences the maximum size-density relationship (MSDR) is therefore critical to designing adaptive silvicultural guidelines based on the potential stand carrying capacity of tree species. With this aim, data from the Third Spanish National Forest Inventory (3NFI) and WorldClim databases were used to analyze climate-related variations of the maximum stand carrying capacity for 15 species from the Pinus, Fagus and Quercus genera. First, basic MSDR were fitted using linear quantile regression and observed size-density data from monospecific 3NFI plots. Reference values for maximum stocking, expressed in terms of the Maximum Stand Density Index (SDI max), were estimated by species. Then, climate-dependent MSDR models including 35 annual and seasonal climatic variables were fitted. The best climate-dependent models, based on the Akaike Information Criteria (AIC) index, were used to determine the climatic drivers affecting MSDR, to analyze general and species-specific patterns and to quantify the impact of climate on maximum stand carrying capacity. The results showed that all the selected climate-dependent models improved the goodness of fit over the basic models. Among the climatic variables, spring and summer maximum temperatures were found to be key drivers affecting MSDR for the species studied. A common trend was also found across species, linking warmer and drier conditions to smaller SDI max values. Based on projected climate scenarios, this suggests potential reductions in maximum stocking for these species. In this study, a new index was proposed, the Q index, for evaluating the impact of climate on maximum stand carrying capacity. Our findings highlight the importance of using specific climatic variables to better characterize how they affect MSDR. The models presented in this study will allow us to better explain interactions between climate and MSDR while also providing more precise estimates concerning maximum stocking for different Mediterranean coniferous and broadleaf tree species.
Estimating tree height is essential for modelling and managing both pure and mixed forest stands. Although height–diameter (H–D) relationships have been traditionally fitted for pure stands, attention must be paid when analyzing this relationship behavior in stands composed of more than one species. The present context of global change makes also necessary to analyze how this relationship is influenced by climate conditions. This study tends to cope these gaps, by fitting new H–D models for 13 different Mediterranean species in mixed forest stands under different mixing proportions along an aridity gradient in Spain. Using Spanish National Forest Inventory data, a total of 14 height–diameter equations were initially fitted in order to select the best base models for each pair species-mixture. Then, the best models were expanded including species proportion by area (mi) and the De Martonne Aridity Index (M). A general trend was found for coniferous species, with taller trees for the same diameter size in pure than in mixed stands, being this trend inverse for broadleaved species. Regarding aridity influence on H–D relationships, humid conditions seem to beneficiate tree height for almost all the analyzed species and species mixtures. These results may have a relevant importance for Mediterranean coppice stands, suggesting that introducing conifers in broadleaves forests could enhance height for coppice species. However, this practice only should be carried out in places with a low probability of drought. Models presented in our study can be used to predict height both in different pure and mixed forests at different spatio-temporal scales to take better sustainable management decisions under future climate change scenarios.
Adapting forests to climate change is a critical issue for forest management. It requires an understanding of climate effects on forest systems and the ability to forecast how these effects may change over time. We used Spanish Second National Forest Inventory data and the SIMANFOR platform to simulate the evolution of CO2 stock (CO2 Mg · ha−1) and accumulation rates (CO2 Mg · ha−1 · year−1) for the 2000–2100 period in pure and mixed stands managed under different Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) in Spain. We hypothesized that (1) the more optimistic climate scenarios (SSP1 > > SSP5) would have higher CO2 stock and accumulation rates; (2) mixed stands would have higher CO2 stock and accumulation rates than pure stands; and (3) the behavior of both variables would vary based on forest composition (conifer–conifer vs. conifer–broadleaf). We focused on Pinus sylvestris L., and its main mixtures with Pinus nigra, Pinus pinaster, Fagus sylvatica and Quercus pyrenaica. The SSP scenarios had correlating CO2 stock values in which SSP1 > SSP2 > SSP3 > SSP5, ranging from the most optimistic (SSP1) to the most pessimistic (SSP5). Though pure stands had higher CO2 stock at the beginning, differences with regard to mixed stands were drastically reduced at the end of the simulation period. We also found an increase in the aboveground CO2 proportion compared to belowground in conifer–broadleaf mixtures, while the opposite trend occurred in conifer–conifer mixtures. Overall CO2 accumulation rates decreased significantly from the beginning to the end of the simulation period, but our results indicated that this decline would be less drastic in mixed stands than in pure ones. At the end of the simulation period, CO2 accumulation rates were higher in mixed stands than in pure stands for all mixtures, fractions (aboveground and belowground) and SSPs. Knowing the evolution of mixed forests in different climate scenarios is relevant for developing useful silvicultural guidelines in the Mediterranean region and optimizing forestry adaptation strategies. Better understanding can also inform the design of management measures for transitioning from pure stands to more resource efficient, resistant and resilient mixed stands, in efforts to reduce forest vulnerability in the face of climate change. This work highlights the importance and benefits of mixed stands in terms of CO2 accumulation, stand productivity and species diversity.
DISCUSSION 6.1. Potential climatic influence on maximum stand carrying capacity of Mediterranean forests 6.1.1. Basic MSDRs and SDImax reference values 6.1.2. Climatic drivers influencing MSDR and SDImax 6.2. Tree productivity variation in mixed forest along a gradient of different climatic and competition conditions 6.2.1. Basal area increment response to competition. Emerging biological interactions between species in mixed forests 6.2.2. Basal area increment response to aridity 6.3. Tree allometry variation in mixed forest along a gradient of different climatic and species mixing conditions 6.3.1. Total tree height response to species mixing proportions 6.3.2. Total tree height response to aridity 6.4. CO2 yield and growth simulation in pure and mixed stands for the 2000-2100 period under different climate change scenarios 6.4.1. Total CO2 yield in pure and mixed stands of Pinus sylvestris in Spain 6.4.2. CO2 growth under different SSPs for the 2000-2100 period CONCLUSION CONCLUSIONES
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