Anecdotal evidence suggests that the timing and intensity of the Central American Midsummer Drought (MSD) may be changing, while observations from limited meteorological station data and paleoclimate reconstructions show neither significant nor consistent trends in seasonal rainfall. Climate model simulations project robust future drying across the region, but internal variability is expected to dominate until the end of the century. Here we use a high-resolution gridded precipitation dataset to investigate these apparent discrepancies and to quantify the spatiotemporal complexities of the MSD. We detect spatially variable trends in MSD timing, the amount of rainy season precipitation, the number of consecutive and total dry days, and extreme wet events at the local scale. At the regional scale, we find a positive trend in the duration, but not the magnitude of the MSD, which is dominated by spatially heterogeneous trends and interannual variability linked to large-scale modes of oceanatmosphere circulation. Although the current climate still reflects predominantly internal variability, some Central American communities are already experiencing significant changes in local characteristics of the MSD. A detailed spatiotemporal understanding of MSD trends and variability can contribute to evidence-based adaptation planning and help reduce the vulnerability of Central American communities to both natural rainfall variability and anthropogenic change.

The subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) predictive timescale, encompassing lead times ranging from 2 weeks to a season, is at the frontier of forecasting science. Forecasts on this timescale provide opportunities for enhanced application-focused capabilities to complement existing weather and climate services and products. There is, however, a ‘knowledge-value’ gap, where a lack of evidence and awareness of the potential socio-economic benefits of S2S forecasts limits their wider uptake. To address this gap, here we present the first global community effort at summarizing relevant applications of S2S forecasts to guide further decision-making and support the continued development of S2S forecasts and related services. Focusing on 12 sectoral case studies spanning public health, agriculture, water resource management, renewable energy and utilities, and emergency management and response, we draw on recent advancements to explore their application and utility. These case studies mark a significant step forward in moving from potential to actual S2S forecasting applications. We show that by placing user needs at the forefront of S2S forecast development – demonstrating both skill and utility across sectors – this dialogue can be used to help promote and accelerate the awareness, value and co-generation of S2S forecasts. We also highlight that while S2S forecasts are increasingly gaining interest among users, incorporating probabilistic S2S forecasts into existing decision-making operations is not trivial. Nevertheless, S2S forecasting represents a significant opportunity to generate useful, usable and actionable forecast applications for and with users that will increasingly unlock the potential of this forecasting timescale.

Agroforestry systems maintain intermediate levels of biodiversity between natural forests and purely agricultural land-uses and may therefore increase connectivity or sustain biodiversity in fragmented forest landscapes. This hypothesis is tested by comparing the species richness and similarity in species composition between forest fragments and agroforestry systems in two landscapes in Guatemala. Connectivity indices were calculated based on the similarity of biodiversity held between forest and agroforestry. Tree and ant species richness was significantly higher for forest than agroforestry land-uses. Conversely, species richness of leaf hoppers (Cicadellidae) was lower in forests compared to agroforests. Chao-Sorensen estimates indicated a high proportion of ant species were shared (0.78-0.99) between different agroforestry land-uses and forest fragments, but lower proportions of tree (0.39-0.55) and leaf hopper species (0.42-0.65). Including the contribution of agroforestry systems in estimates of forest connectivity, based on their biodiversity relative to forest, substantially increased the land area rated with high connectivity (by 100-300%) and forest edge connectivity (by 70-170%), but had negligible impact on land area rated as dense forest. The major forest fragments in the two landscapes were linked by land rated as medium connectivity for forest biodiversity. Thus, agroforestry contributes to the capacity of the landscape to support biodiversity, but only partially increases connectivity between forest fragments in the two landscapes studied. If these benefits are to be sustained, consideration needs to be given to the incentives for landowners to maintain agroforestry systems.