Models of ecological responses to climate warming predict species’ migration towards higher latitudes or elevations. However, models often neglect non-climatic factors, such as herbivory, that could slow down or prevent geographic range expansion. A previous study in Mont Mégantic National Park (Québec) found that in one year (2016) white-tailed deer browsing of Trillium erectum was substantially higher at high elevation than low elevation. Under the hypothesis that deer herbivory could limit upper elevational range expansion of T. erectum, here we ask whether (i) herbivory increases with elevation in two additional years (2017-18), (ii) the rate of deer visitation increases with elevation, and (iii) the effect of herbivory on relative growth rates increases with elevation. Contrary to the earlier study, we did not find a significant trend of herbivory with elevation, although there was a weak positive relationship between deer visitation and elevation. We found a strong negative impact of browsing on relative growth rates, but the magnitude of this effect did not vary with elevation. Our results thus do not support the hypothesis that herbivory limits the range of T. erectum at high elevation, but herbivory could have a negative impact on populations in general if browsing rate remains high.

Abstract1: Despite many studies showing biodiversity responses to warming, the generality of such responses across taxa remains unclear. Very few studies have tested for evidence of bryophyte community responses to warming, despite the fact that bryophytes are major contributors to diversity in many ecosystems, playing a central role in ecosystem functions. Understanding variation among taxa in their responses to warming is crucial for identifying priorities in conservation.2: We report an empirical study comparing long-term change of bryophyte and vascular plant communities in two sites with contrasting long-term warming trends. To assess long-term responses of ecological communities to warming, we used “legacy” botanical records as a baseline for comparison with contemporary resurveys.We hypothesized that ecological changes would be greater in sites with a stronger warming trends, and that vascular plant communities would be more sensitive than bryophyte communities to climate warming. For each taxon in each site, we quantified the magnitude of changes in species’ distributions along the elevation gradient, species richness, and community composition.3: Temporal changes in vascular plant communities were consistent with the warming hypothesis, but this was not the case for bryophytes. We also did not find clear support for the hypothesis that vascular plants would show greater sensitivity than bryophytes to warming, with results depending on the metric of community change. As predicted for sites with a strong warming trend, we found a significant upward shift in the distributions of vascular plants but not bryophytes.Synthesis: Our results are in accordance with recent literature showing that local diversity can remain unchanged despite strong changes in composition. Regardless of whether one taxon is systematically more or less sensitive to environmental change than another, our results suggest that vascular plants cannot be used as a surrogate for bryophytes in terms of predicting the nature and magnitude of responses to warming. In sites that experienced the same environmental changes, we found that communities of bryophytes and vascular plants did not predictably change in the same ways. Thus, to assess overall biodiversity responses to global change, data from different taxonomical groups and community properties need to be synthesized.

Despite many studies showing biodiversity responses to warming, the generality of such responses across taxonomic groups remains unclear. Very few studies have tested for evidence of bryophyte community responses to warming, even though bryophytes are major contributors to diversity and functioning in many ecosystems. Here, we report an empirical study comparing long‐term change in bryophyte and vascular plant communities in two sites with contrasting long‐term warming trends, using “legacy” botanical records as a baseline for comparison with contemporary resurveys. We hypothesized that ecological changes would be greater in sites with a stronger warming trend and that vascular plant communities, with narrower climatic niches, would be more sensitive than bryophyte communities to climate warming. For each taxonomic group in each site, we quantified the magnitude of changes in species' distributions along the elevation gradient, species richness, and community composition. We found contrasted temporal changes in bryophyte vs. vascular plant communities, which only partially supported the warming hypothesis. In the area with a stronger warming trend, we found a significant increase in local diversity and dissimilarity (β‐diversity) for vascular plants, but not for bryophytes. Presence–absence data did not provide sufficient power to detect elevational shifts in species distributions. The patterns observed for bryophytes are in accordance with recent literature showing that local diversity can remain unchanged despite strong changes in composition. Regardless of whether one taxon is systematically more or less sensitive to environmental change than another, our results suggest that vascular plants cannot be used as a surrogate for bryophytes in terms of predicting the nature and magnitude of responses to warming. Thus, to assess overall biodiversity responses to global change, abundance data from different taxonomic groups and different community properties need to be synthesized.