The outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has caused tremendous loss to human life and economic decline in China and worldwide. It has significantly reduced gross domestic product (GDP), power generation, industrial activity and transport volume; thus, it has reduced fossil-related and cement-induced carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions in China. Due to time delays in obtaining activity data, traditional emissions inventories generally involve a 2–3-year lag. However, a timely assessment of COVID-19's impact on provincial CO 2 emission reductions is crucial for accurately understanding the reduction and its implications for mitigation measures; furthermore, this information can provide constraints for modeling studies. Here, we used national and provincial GDP data and the China Emission Accounts and Datasets (CEADs) inventory to estimate the emission reductions in the first quarter (Q1) of 2020. We find a reduction of 257.7 Mt. CO 2 (11.0%) over Q1 2019. The secondary industry contributed 186.8 Mt. CO 2 (72.5%) to the total reduction, largely due to lower coal consumption and cement production. At the provincial level, Hubei contributed the most to the reductions (40.6 Mt) due to a notable decrease of 48.2% in the secondary industry. Moreover, transportation significantly contributed (65.1 Mt), with a change of −22.3% in freight transport and −59.1% in passenger transport compared with Q1 2019. We used a point, line and area sources (PLAS) method to test the GDP method, producing a close estimate (reduction of 10.6%). One policy implication is a change in people's working style and communication methods, realized by working from home and holding teleconferences, to reduce traffic emissions. Moreover, GDP is found to have potential merit in estimating emission changes when detailed energy activity data are unavailable. We provide provincial data that can serve as spatial disaggregation constraints for modeling studies and further support for both the carbon cycle community and policy makers.

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Background Quantifying CO2 emissions from cities is of great importance because cities contribute more than 70% of the global total CO2 emissions. As the largest urbanized megalopolis region in northern China, the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (Jing-Jin-Ji, JJJ) region (population: 112.7 million) is under considerable pressure to reduce carbon emissions. Despite the several emission inventories covering the JJJ region, a comprehensive evaluation of the CO2 emissions at the prefectural city scale in JJJ is still limited, and this information is crucial to implementing mitigation strategies. Results Here, we collected and analyzed 8 published emission inventories to assess the emissions and uncertainty at the JJJ city level. The results showed that a large discrepancy existed in the JJJ emissions among downscaled country-level emission inventories, with total emissions ranging from 657 to 1132 Mt CO2 (or 849 ± 214 for mean ± standard deviation (SD)) in 2012, while emission estimates based on provincial-level data estimated emissions to be 1038 and 1056 Mt. Compared to the mean emissions of city-data-based inventories (989 Mt), provincial-data-based inventories were 6% higher, and national-data-based inventories were 14% lower. Emissions from national-data-based inventories were 53–75% lower in the high-emitting industrial cities of Tangshan and Handan, while they were 47–160% higher in Beijing and Tianjin than those from city-data-based inventories. Spatially, the emissions pattern was consistent with the distribution of urban areas, and urban emissions in Beijing contributed 50–70% of the total emissions. Higher emissions from Beijing and Tianjin resulted in lower estimates of prefectural cities in Hebei for some national inventories. Conclusions National-level data-based emission inventories produce large differences in JJJ prefectural city-level emission estimates. The city-level statistics data-based inventories produced more consistent estimates. The consistent spatial distribution patterns recognized by these inventories (such as high emissions in southern Beijing, central Tianjin and Tangshan) potentially indicate areas with robust emission estimates. This result could be useful in the efficient deployment of monitoring instruments, and if proven by such measurements, it will increase our confidence in inventories and provide support for policy makers trying to reduce emissions in key regions.