Information theory has been very successful in obtaining performance limits for various problems such as communication, compression and hypothesis testing. Likewise, stochastic control theory provides a characterization of optimal policies for Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes (POMDPs) using dynamic programming. However, finding optimal policies for these problems is computationally hard in general and thus, heuristic solutions are employed in practice. Deep learning can be used as a tool for designing better heuristics in such problems. In this paper, the problem of active sequential hypothesis testing is considered. The goal is to design a policy that can reliably infer the true hypothesis using as few samples as possible by adaptively selecting appropriate queries. This problem can be modeled as a POMDP and bounds on its value function exist in literature. However, optimal policies have not been identified and various heuristics are used. In this paper, two new heuristics are proposed: one based on deep reinforcement learning and another based on a KL-divergence zero-sum game. These heuristics are compared with state-of-the-art solutions and it is demonstrated using numerical experiments that the proposed heuristics can achieve significantly better performance than existing methods in some scenarios.
Two active hypothesis testing problems are formulated. In these problems, the agent can perform a fixed number of experiments and then decide on one of the hypotheses. The agent is also allowed to declare its experiments inconclusive if needed. The first problem is an asymmetric formulation in which the the objective is to minimize the probability of incorrectly declaring a particular hypothesis to be true while ensuring that the probability of correctly declaring that hypothesis is moderately high. This formulation can be seen as a generalization of the formulation in the classical Chernoff-Stein lemma to an active setting. The second problem is a symmetric formulation in which the objective is to minimize the probability of making an incorrect inference (misclassification probability) while ensuring that the true hypothesis is declared conclusively with moderately high probability. For these problems, lower and upper bounds on the optimal misclassification probabilities are derived and these bounds are shown to be asymptotically tight. Classical approaches for experiment selection suggest use of randomized and, in some cases, open-loop strategies. As opposed to these classical approaches, fully deterministic and adaptive experiment selection strategies are provided. It is shown that these strategies are asymptotically optimal and further, using numerical experiments, it is demonstrated that these novel experiment selection strategies (coupled with appropriate inference strategies) have a significantly better performance in the non-asymptotic regime.
A general model for zero-sum stochastic games with asymmetric information is considered. For this model, a dynamic programming characterization of the value (if it exists) is presented. If the value of the zero-sum game does not exist, then the dynamic program provides bounds on the upper and lower values of the zero-sum game. This dynamic program is then used for a class of zero-sum stochastic games with complete information on one side and partial information on the other, that is, games where one player has complete information about state, actions and observation history while the other player may only have partial information about the state and action history. For such games, the value exists and can be characterized using the dynamic program. It is further shown that for this class of games, there exists a Nash equilibrium where the more informed player plays a common information belief based strategy and, this strategy can be computed using the dynamic program.
An active hypothesis testing problem is formulated. In this problem, the agent can perform a fixed number of experiments and then decide on one of the hypotheses. The agent is also allowed to declare its experiments inconclusive if needed. The objective is to minimize the probability of making an incorrect inference (misclassification probability) while ensuring that the true hypothesis is declared conclusively with moderately high probability. For this problem, lower and upper bounds on the optimal misclassification probability are derived and these bounds are shown to be asymptotically tight. In the analysis, a sub-problem, which can be viewed as a generalization of the Chernoff-Stein lemma, is formulated and analyzed. A heuristic approach to strategy design is proposed and its relationship with existing heuristic strategies is discussed.
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