We study the implications of microeconomic heterogeneity for aggregate technology, showing that the aggregate elasticity of substitution between capital and labor can be expressed as a simple function of plant level structural parameters and sufficient statistics for plant heterogeneity. This allows for a new approach to estimating the aggregate elasticity using microeconomic data and allows us to examine how the aggregate elasticity varies over time or across countries. We then use plant level data from the Census of Manufactures to construct an aggregate elasticity of substitution for the manufacturing sector, and estimate an aggregate elasticity of approximately 0.72 in 1987. We find that the aggregate elasticity has risen over time in the US and is higher in less developed countries. These differences are quantitatively important; our estimates imply that a change in the interest rate has a 50 percent larger impact on India than the US. Finally, we measure the bias of aggregate technical change using our estimates of the aggregate elasticity, and find that the bias of technical change has increased in recent years.
We develop a framework to estimate the aggregate capital‐labor elasticity of substitution by aggregating the actions of individual plants. The aggregate elasticity reflects substitution within plants and reallocation across plants; the extent of heterogeneity in capital intensities determines their relative importance. We use micro data on the cross‐section of plants to build up to the aggregate elasticity at a point in time. Interpreting our econometric estimates through the lens of several different models, we find that the aggregate elasticity for the U.S. manufacturing sector is in the range of 0.5–0.7, and has declined slightly since 1970. We use our estimates to measure the bias of technical change and assess the decline in labor's share of income in the U.S. manufacturing sector. Mechanisms that rely on changes in the relative supply of factors, such as an acceleration of capital accumulation, cannot account for the decline.
This article provides evidence on the micro capital‐labor elasticity of substitution and the bias of technology. Using data on US manufacturing plants, I find several facts inconsistent with a Cobb‐Douglas production function, including large, persistent variation in capital shares. I then estimate the elasticity using variation in local wages, and several instruments for them, for identification. Estimates of the substitution elasticity using all plants range between 0.3 and 0.5, with similar estimates across industries. I use these elasticity estimates to measure labor augmenting productivity, and find that labor augmenting productivity is highly persistent, and correlated with exports, size, and growth.
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