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Wind and solar power are known to be highly influenced by weather events and may ramp up or down abruptly. Such events in the power production influence not only the availability of energy, but also the stability of the entire power grid. By analysing significant amounts of data from several regions around the world with resolutions of seconds to minutes, we provide strong evidence that renewable wind and solar sources exhibit multiple types of variability and nonlinearity in the time scale of seconds and characterise their stochastic properties. In contrast to previous findings, we show that only the jumpy characteristic of renewable sources decreases when increasing the spatial size over which the renewable energies are harvested. Otherwise, the strong non-Gaussian, intermittent behaviour in the cumulative power of the total field survives even for a country-wide distribution of the systems. The strong fluctuating behaviour of renewable wind and solar sources can be well characterised by Kolmogorov-like power spectra and q-exponential probability density functions. Using the estimated potential shape of power time series, we quantify the jumpy or diffusive dynamic of the power. Finally we propose a time delayed feedback technique as a control algorithm to suppress the observed short term non-Gaussian statistics in spatially strong correlated and intermittent renewable sources.

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Accurate solar irradiance data are not only of particular importance for the assessment of the radiative forcing of the climate system, but also absolutely necessary for efficient planning and operation of solar energy systems. Within the European project Heliosat-3, a new type of solar irradiance scheme is developed. This new type will be based on radiative transfer models (RTM) using atmospheric parameter information retrieved from the Meteosat Second Generation (MSG) satellite (clouds, ozone, water vapour) and the ERS-2/ENVISAT satellites (aerosols, ozone).This paper focuses on the description of the clear-sky module of the new scheme, especially on the integrated use of a radiative transfer model. The linkage of the clear-sky module with the cloud module is also briefly described in order to point out the benefits of the integrated RTM use for the all-sky situations. The integrated use of an RTM within the new Solar Irradiance Scheme SOLIS is applied by introducing a new fitting function called the modified Lambert -Beer (MLB) relation. Consequently, the modified Lambert -Beer relation and its role for an integrated RTM use are discussed. Comparisons of the calculated clear-sky irradiances with ground-based measurements and the current clear-sky module demonstrate the advantages and benefits of SOLIS. Since SOLIS can provide spectrally resolved irradiance data, it can be used for different applications. Beside improved information for the planning of solar energy systems, the calculation of photosynthetic active radiation, UV index, and illuminance is possible. D

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Abstract. An intentional yaw misalignment of wind turbines is currently discussed as one possibility to increase the overall energy yield of wind farms. The idea behind this control is to decrease wake losses of downstream turbines by altering the wake trajectory of the controlled upwind turbines. For an application of such an operational control, precise knowledge about the inflow wind conditions, the magnitude of wake deflection by a yawed turbine and the propagation of the wake is crucial. The dependency of the wake deflection on the ambient wind conditions as well as the uncertainty of its trajectory are not sufficiently covered in current wind farm control models. In this study we analyze multiple sources that contribute to the uncertainty of the estimation of the wake deflection downstream of yawed wind turbines in different ambient wind conditions. We find that the wake shapes and the magnitude of deflection differ in the three evaluated atmospheric boundary layers of neutral, stable and unstable thermal stability. Uncertainty in the wake deflection estimation increases for smaller temporal averaging intervals. We also consider the choice of the method to define the wake center as a source of uncertainty as it modifies the result. The variance of the wake deflection estimation increases with decreasing atmospheric stability. Control of the wake position in a highly convective environment is therefore not recommended.

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The contribution of power production from PV systems to the electricity supply is constantly increasing. An efficient use of the fluctuating solar power production will highly benefit from forecast information on the expected power production, as a basis for management of the electricity grids and trading on the energy market. We present and evaluate the regional PV power prediction system of University of Oldenburg and Meteocontrol GmbH providing forecasts of up to 2 days ahead with hourly resolution. The proposed approach is based on forecasts of the global model of the European Centre for Medium‐Range Forecasts (ECMWF). It includes a post‐processing procedure to derive optimised, site‐specific irradiance forecasts and explicit physical modelling steps to convert the predicted irradiances to PV power. Finally, regional power forecasts are derived by up‐scaling from a representative set of PV systems. The investigation of proper up‐scaling is a special focus of this paper. We introduce a modified up‐scaling approach, modelling the spatial distribution of the nominal power with a resolution of 1° × 1°. The operational PV power prediction system is evaluated in comparison to the modified up‐scaling approach for the control areas of the two German transmission system operators ‘transpower’ and ‘50 Hertz’ for the period 2.7.2009–30.4.2010. rmse values of the operational forecasts are in the range of 4–5% with respect to the nominal power for intra‐day and day‐ahead forecast horizons. Further improvement is achieved with the modified up‐scaling approach. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.