Abstract. We present PCR-GLOBWB 2, a global hydrology and water resources model. Compared to previous versions of PCR-GLOBWB, this version fully integrates water use. Sector-specific water demand, groundwater and surface water withdrawal, water consumption, and return flows are dynamically calculated at every time step and interact directly with the simulated hydrology. PCR-GLOBWB 2 has been fully rewritten in Python and PCRaster Python and has a modular structure, allowing easier replacement, maintenance, and development of model components. PCR-GLOBWB 2 has been implemented at 5 arcmin resolution, but a version parameterized at 30 arcmin resolution is also available. Both versions are available as open-source codes on https://github.com/UU-Hydro/PCR-GLOBWB_model (Sutanudjaja et al., 2017a). PCR-GLOBWB 2 has its own routines for groundwater dynamics and surface water routing. These relatively simple routines can alternatively be replaced by dynamically coupling PCR-GLOBWB 2 to a global two-layer groundwater model and 1-D–2-D hydrodynamic models. Here, we describe the main components of the model, compare results of the 30 and 5 arcmin versions, and evaluate their model performance using Global Runoff Data Centre discharge data. Results show that model performance of the 5 arcmin version is notably better than that of the 30 arcmin version. Furthermore, we compare simulated time series of total water storage (TWS) of the 5 arcmin model with those observed with GRACE, showing similar negative trends in areas of prevalent groundwater depletion. Also, we find that simulated total water withdrawal matches reasonably well with reported water withdrawal from AQUASTAT, while water withdrawal by source and sector provide mixed results.

Process-based spatio-temporal models simulate changes over time using equations that represent real world processes. They are widely applied in geography and earth science. Software implementation of the model itself and integrating model results with observations through data assimilation are two important steps in the model development cycle. Unlike most software frameworks that provide tools for either implementation of the model or data assimilation, this paper describes a software framework that integrates both steps. The software framework includes generic operations on 2D map and 3D block data that can be combined in a Python script using a framework for time iterations and Monte Carlo simulation. In addition, the framework contains components for data assimilation with the Ensemble Kalman Filter and the Particle filter. Two case studies of distributed hydrological models show how the framework integrates model construction and data assimilation.

Summary The objective of this study was to map topographically contact areas and pressure distributions on the proximal articular surface (PAS) of the proximal phalanx (PI) under various clinically relevant loading conditions. Left and right forelimbs of 13 mature horses were transected halfway down the radius and loaded in a position mimicking the weightbearing attitude close to the midstance phase. Five loads were used which corresponded with loads that can be expected in different gaits or during athletic performance (stance: 1800 N, walk: 3600 N, trot: 5400 N, gallop: 10,500 N and jumping: 12,000 N). Contact areas and pressure distributions at the PAS of PI were determined using a methylene blue dye staining technique and 2 pressure sensitive films (low pressure: range 2.5–10 MPa and medium pressure: range 10–50 MPa). The contact area of PI was positively correlated (r = 0.86; P<0.01) with the applied load. The contact area increased from 63% at 1800 N to 95% at 12,000 N and gradually shifted to include more of the edges of the articular surface, but especially the dorsal articular margin of PI. Pressure distribution patterns were similar under the different loading conditions. Pressure was less at the palmar margin and in the central depression and highest at the dorsal articular margin. With increasing load, the highest peak pressures were measured at sites of the dorsal articular margin that are not loaded in the standing or walking horse. The results of this study suggest that the frequent occurrence of osteochondral lesions at the dorsal articular margin of PI is caused by the combination of the intermittent character and the high absolute values of loads at this site as they occur during athletic performance.

Large-scale hydrological models are nowadays mostly calibrated using observed discharge. As a result, a large part of the hydrological system, in particular the unsaturated zone, remains uncalibrated. Soil moisture observations from satellites have the potential to fill this gap. Here we evaluate the added value of remotely sensed soil moisture in calibration of large-scale hydrological models by addressing two research questions: (1) Which parameters of hydrological models can be identified by calibration with remotely sensed soil moisture? (2) Does calibration with remotely sensed soil moisture lead to an improved calibration of hydrological models compared to calibration based only on discharge observations, such that this leads to improved simulations of soil moisture content and discharge? A dual state and parameter Ensemble Kalman Filter is used to calibrate the hydrological model LISFLOOD for the Upper Danube. Calibration is done using discharge and remotely sensed soil moisture acquired by AMSR-E, SMOS, and ASCAT. Calibration with discharge data improves the estimation of groundwater and routing parameters. Calibration with only remotely sensed soil moisture results in an accurate identification of parameters related to land-surface processes. For the Upper Danube upstream area up to 40,000 km 2 , calibration on both discharge and soil moisture results in a reduction by 10-30% in the RMSE for discharge simulations, compared to calibration on discharge alone. The conclusion is that remotely sensed soil moisture holds potential for calibration of hydrological models, leading to a better simulation of soil moisture content throughout the catchment and a better simulation of discharge in upstream areas.

Abstract. We evaluate the added value of assimilated remotely sensed soil moisture for the European Flood Awareness System (EFAS) and its potential to improve the prediction of the timing and height of the flood peak and low flows. EFAS is an operational flood forecasting system for Europe and uses a distributed hydrological model (LISFLOOD) for flood predictions with lead times of up to 10 days. For this study, satellite-derived soil moisture from ASCAT (Advanced SCATterometer), AMSR-E (Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer -Earth Observing System) and SMOS (Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity) is assimilated into the LISFLOOD model for the Upper Danube Basin and results are compared to assimilation of discharge observations only. To assimilate soil moisture and discharge data into the hydrological model, an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is used. Information on the spatial (cross-) correlation of the errors in the satellite products, is included to ensure increased performance of the EnKF. For the validation, additional discharge observations not used in the EnKF are used as an independent validation data set.Our results show that the accuracy of flood forecasts is increased when more discharge observations are assimilated; the mean absolute error (MAE) of the ensemble mean is reduced by 35 %. The additional inclusion of satellite data results in a further increase of the performance: forecasts of baseflows are better and the uncertainty in the overall discharge is reduced, shown by a 10 % reduction in the MAE. In addition, floods are predicted with a higher accuracy and the continuous ranked probability score (CRPS) shows a performance increase of 5-10 % on average, compared to assimilation of discharge only. When soil moisture data is used, the timing errors in the flood predictions are decreased especially for shorter lead times and imminent floods can be forecasted with more skill. The number of false flood alerts is reduced when more observational data is assimilated into the system. The added values of the satellite data is largest when these observations are assimilated in combination with distributed discharge observations. These results show the potential of remotely sensed soil moisture observations to improve nearreal time flood forecasting in large catchments.