This paper proposed the forecasting model of Influenza-like Illness (ILI) and respiratory disease. The dataset was extracted from the Taiwan Environmental Protection Administration (EPA) for air pollutants data and the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) for disease cases from 2009 to 2018. First, this paper applied the ARIMA method, which trained based on the weekly number of disease cases in time series. Second, we implemented the Long short-term memory (LSTM) method, which trained based on the correlation between the weekly number of diseases and air pollutants. The models were also trained and evaluated based on five and ten years of historical data. Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) has an excellent model in the five-year dataset of ILI at 2564.9 compared to ten years at 8173.6 of RMSE value. This accuracy is similar to the Respiratory dataset, which gets 15,656.7 in the five-year dataset and 22,680.4 of RMSE value in the ten-year dataset. On the contrary, LSTM has better accuracy in the ten-year dataset than the five-year dataset. For example, on average of RMSE in the ILI dataset, LSTM has 720.2 RMSE value in five years and 517.0 in ten years dataset. Also, in the Respiratory disease dataset, LSTM gets 4768.6 of five years of data and 3254.3 of the ten-year dataset. These experiments revealed that the LSTM model generally outperforms ARIMA by three to seven times higher model performance.
Aim: Results from various studies are controversial regarding long-term hepatic effects of tumor necrosis factor (TNF)α inhibitors. Here we aimed to investigate the development of liver cirrhosis with TNFα inhibitors use in patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA). Method: This nested case-control study was based on the National Health Insurance Research Database (January 1, 2000 to December 31, 2008) of Taiwan. We identified 559 adult RA patients who developed liver cirrhosis, and 1055 matched control RA patients. TNFα inhibitors of interest in the study period included adalimumab and etanercept. Multivariate logistic regression analysis for the development of liver cirrhosis with respect to use of TNFα inhibitors was performed. Results:The incidence rate of liver cirrhosis was 274 per 100 000 person-years in newly diagnosed RA patients. We found the use of TNFα inhibitors was not associated with the development of liver cirrhosis in RA patients (odds ratio 1.02, 95% confidence interval 0.61, 1.70) after adjustment for potential confounders. In addition, the finding was robust to an unobserved confounder. Conclusion:We found no association between the use of TNFα inhibitors and development of liver cirrhosis in RA patients.
Psoriasis is an immune-mediated skin disease with a worldwide prevalence of 2–4% that causes scaling erythematous skin lesions. It is a chronic relapsing and complex multifactorial disease that often necessitates long-term therapy. Despite various novel therapies, psoriasis remains a treatable but non-curable disease. Because the antitussive medication dextromethorphan (DXM) can inhibit murine bone marrow and human monocytes and slow the progression of arthritis in mice with type II collagen-induced arthritis, we explored whether the oral administration of DXM to mice with imiquimod (IMQ)-induced psoriasis can effectively alleviate psoriasis symptoms and improve immune regulation. Herein, we examined the therapeutic effects of DXM on psoriasis and its potential mechanisms of action in an IMQ-induced psoriasis mice model. We found that an oral dose of DXM (10 mg/kg) could more significantly reduce psoriasis symptoms compared with intraperitoneal injection. Seven days after the oral administration of DXM, the Psoriasis Area and Severity Index (PASI) score was significantly decreased compared with that in the vehicle group. Furthermore, DXM treatment also significantly ameliorated the psoriasis symptoms and the histopathological features of psoriasis, including stratum corneum thickening, desquamation, and immune cell infiltration. Additionally, DXM reduced the mRNA levels of the cytokines TNF-α, IL-6, IL-17A, and IL-22 in skin and the percentage of IL-17A and IL-22 producing T cell receptor γδ T cells (TCRγδT). Taken together, our research demonstrated that DXM could inhibit keratinocyte proliferation and alleviate psoriasis symptoms, which suggests the potential application of DXM in the treatment of chronic inflammation and autoimmune diseases.
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