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Poaching for bushmeat is a major problem for conservation of wildlife populations in many parts of Africa, including the Serengeti ecosystem in Tanzania. However, the severity of the poaching problem is often unclear because of a lack of accurate data. Directly asking people to self-report illegal activity faces the obvious problem of under-reporting. Use of arrest records from anti-poaching patrols may reflect levels of poaching activity but could also be driven by funding and quality of anti-poaching efforts. A third method, assessing poaching by asking about bushmeat consumption, is indirect, possibly subject to under-reporting, and also subject to limits on the accuracy of memory of respondents. We compare rates of poaching derived by self-assessment of poaching activities (based on household interviews), dietary recall of bushmeat consumption over a variety of time frames, and arrest records from anti-poaching units. We apply these three methods to assess poaching activities in three villages bordering protected areas on the western boundary of Serengeti National Park. Our results showed that dietary recall of bushmeat consumption and arrest records indicated similar patterns of poaching across the three villages but self-reporting differed significantly. There appear to be significant advantages to coupling results from dietary recall of bushmeat consumption and arrest records to estimate the level of poaching activity. In situations where reliable data from anti-poaching units are unavailable, cost-effective data collection of bushmeat consumption will provide a viable alternative to assess levels of poaching involvement of villages that border protected areas.

The iconic giraffe, an ecologically important browser, has shown a substantial decline in numbers across Africa since the 1990s. In Serengeti National Park, Tanzania, giraffes reached densities of 1.5-2.6 individuals km -2 in the 1970s coincident with a pulse of Acacia tree recruitment. However, despite continued increases in woody cover between the 1980s and the 2000s, giraffe recruitment and survival rates have declined and density has dropped to only 0.3-0.4 giraffes km -2 . We used a decision table to investigate how four extrinsic factors may have contributed to these declines: food supply, predation, parasites, and poaching, which have all been previously shown to limit Serengeti ungulate populations. Lower recruitment likely resulted from a reduction in diet quality, owing to the replacement of preferred trees with unpalatable species, while decreased adult survival resulted from illegal harvesting, which appears to have had a greater impact on giraffe populations bordering the western and northern Serengeti. The Serengeti giraffe population will likely persist at low-to-moderate densities until palatable tree species regain their former abundance. Leslie matrix models suggest that park managers should meanwhile redouble their efforts to reduce poaching, thereby improving adult survival.

Bushmeat management policies are often developed outside the communities in which they are to be implemented. These policies are also routinely designed to be applied uniformly across communities with little regard for variation in social or ecological conditions. We used fuzzy-logic cognitive mapping, a form of participatory modeling, to compare the assumptions driving externally generated bushmeat management policies with perceptions of bushmeat trade dynamics collected from local community members who admitted to being recently engaged in bushmeat trading (e.g., hunters, sellers, consumers). Data were collected during 9 workshops in 4 Tanzanian villages bordering Serengeti National Park. Specifically, we evaluated 9 community-generated models for the presence of the central factors that comprise and drive the bushmeat trade and whether or not models included the same core concepts, relationships, and logical chains of reasoning on which bushmeat conservation policies are commonly based. Across local communities, there was agreement about the most central factors important to understanding the bushmeat trade (e.g., animal recruitment, low income, and scarcity of food crops). These matched policy assumptions. However, the factors perceived to drive social-ecological bushmeat trade dynamics were more diverse and varied considerably across communities (e.g., presence or absence of collaborative law enforcement, increasing human population, market demand, cultural preference). Sensitive conservation issues, such as the bushmeat trade, that require cooperation between communities and outside conservation organizations can benefit from participatory modeling approaches that make local-scale dynamics and conservation policy assumptions explicit. Further, communities' and conservation organizations' perceptions need to be aligned. This can improve success by allowing context appropriate policies to be developed, monitored, and appropriately adapted as new evidence is generated.

Crop damage is the most common impact of negative interactions between people and elephants and poses a significant threat to rural livelihoods and conservation efforts. Numerous approaches to mitigate and prevent crop damage have been implemented throughout Africa and Asia. Despite the documented high efficacy of many approaches, losses remain common, and in many areas, damage is intensifying. We examined the literature on effectiveness of crop-damage-mitigation strategies and identified key gaps in evaluations. We determined there is a need to better understand existing solutions within affected communities and to extend evaluations of effectiveness beyond measurement of efficacy to include rates of and barriers to adoption. We devised a conceptual framework for evaluating effectiveness that incorporates the need for increased emphasis on adoption and can be used to inform the design of future crop-damage mitigation assessments for elephants and conflict species more widely. The ability to prevent crop loss in practice is affected by both the efficacy of a given approach and rates of uptake among target users. We identified the primary factors that influence uptake as local attitudes, sustainability, and scalability and examined each of these factors in detail. We argue that even moderately efficacious interventions may make significant progress in preventing damage if widely employed and recommend that wherever possible scientists and practitioners engage with communities to build on and strengthen existing solutions and expertise. When new approaches are required, they should align with local attitudes and fit within limitations on labor, financial requirements, and technical capacity.

Bushmeat hunting is a threat to wildlife populations in many parts of sub-Saharan Africa, including to migratory wildebeest Connochaetes taurinus and other wildlife populations in the Serengeti ecosystem. Accurate assessments of offtake through bushmeat hunting are necessary to determine whether hunting pressure on the wildebeest population is unsustainable. We used a panel dataset of local bushmeat consumption to measure offtake of wildlife and examine the long-term threat to the Serengeti wildebeest population. Based on these data we estimate an annual offtake of 97,796-140,615 wildebeest (6-10% of the current population), suggesting that previous estimates based on ecological models underestimated the effect of poaching on these populations.

Understanding the effects of forest management strategies is especially important to avoid unregulated natural resource extraction that leads to ecosystem degradation. In addition to the loss of crucial forest services, inefficiencies at converting these natural resources into economic gain for people ultimately exacerbates poverty. Therefore, it is important to know which conservation strategies have proven to be effective in preventing ecosystem degradation and thus be encouraged in future management plans. Here, we used a high-resolution remotely sensed dataset spanning 15 years to study forest cover dynamics across various protected areas in Tanzania. Our findings highlight particular management approaches more effective in preventing forest cover loss and promote forest cover gain, and provide valuable information for conservation efforts. Results show that National Parks have the least forest cover loss, whereas multiple-use Game Controlled Areas have the highest rates of forest loss. In fact, results suggest that these multiple use areas tend to lose more forest cover than areas with no protection or management status at all. These findings suggest the need for more effective strategies for enforcing the existing policies to ensure that socio-economic benefits to local communities are maximized and national interests are sustained.