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Abstract. Accurate prediction of wind speed is an important aspect of various tasks related to wind energy management such as wind turbine predictive control and wind power scheduling. The most typical characteristic of wind speed data is its persistent temporal variations. Most of the techniques reported in the literature for prediction of wind speed and power are based on statistical methods or probabilistic distribution of wind speed data. In this paper we demonstrate that deterministic forecasting methods can make accurate short-term predictions of wind speed using past data, at locations where the wind dynamics exhibit chaotic behaviour. The predictions are remarkably accurate up to 1 h with a normalised RMSE (root mean square error) of less than 0.02 and reasonably accurate up to 3 h with an error of less than 0.06. Repeated application of these methods at 234 different geographical locations for predicting wind speeds at 30-day intervals for 3 years reveals that the accuracy of prediction is more or less the same across all locations and time periods.Comparison of the results with f-ARIMA model predictions shows that the deterministic models with suitable parameters are capable of returning improved prediction accuracy and capturing the dynamical variations of the actual time series more faithfully. These methods are simple and computationally efficient and require only records of past data for making short-term wind speed forecasts within practically tolerable margin of errors.

Nowadays, the need for subway tunnels has increased considerably with urbanization and population growth in order to facilitate movements. In urban areas, subway tunnels are excavated in shallow depths under densely populated areas and soft ground. Its associated hazards include poor ground conditions and surface settlement induced by tunneling. Various sophisticated variables influence the settlement of the ground surface caused by tunneling. The shield machine's operational parameters are critical due to the complexity of shield-soil interactions, tunnel geometry, and local geological parameters. Since all elements appear to have some effect on tunneling-induced settlement, none stand out as particularly significant; it might be challenging to identify the most important ones. This paper presents a new model of an artificial neural network (ANN) based on the partial dependency approach (PDA) to optimize the lack of explainability of ANN models and evaluate the sensitivity of the model response to tunneling parameters for the prediction of ground surface and subsurface settlement. For this purpose, 239 and 104 points for monitoring surface and subsurface settlement, respectively, were obtained from line Y, the west bond of Crossrail tunnels in London. The parameters of the ground surface, the trough, and the tunnel boring machine (TBM) were used to categorize the 12 potential input parameters that could impact the maximum settlement induced by tunneling. An ANN model and a standard statistical model of multiple linear regression (MLR) were also used to show the capabilities of the ANN model based on PDA in displaying the parameter's interaction impact. Performance indicators such as the correlation coefficient (R2), root mean square error (RMSE), and t-test were generated to measure the prediction performance of the described models. According to the results, geotechnical engineers in general practice should attend closely to index properties to reduce the geotechnical risks related to tunneling-induced ground settlement. The results revealed that the interaction of two parameters that have different effects on the target parameter could change the overall impact of the entire model. Remarkably, the interaction between tunneling parameters was observed more precisely in the subsurface zone than in the surface zone. The comparison results also indicated that the proposed PDA-ANN model is more reliable than the ANN and MLR models in presenting the parameter interaction impact. It can be further applied to establish multivariate models that consider multiple parameters in a single model, better capturing the correlation among different parameters, leading to more realistic demand and reliable ground settlement assessments. This study will benefit underground excavation projects; the experts could make recommendations on the criteria for settlement control and controlling the tunneling parameters based on predicted results. Doi: 10.28991/CEJ-2022-08-11-05 Full Text: PDF

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