BackgroundIn healthy BRCA1/2 mutation carriers, bilateral risk-reducing mastectomy (BRRM) strongly reduces the risk of developing breast cancer (BC); however, no clear survival benefit of BRRM over BC surveillance has been reported yet.MethodsIn this Dutch multicenter cohort study, we used multivariable Cox models with BRRM as a time-dependent covariable to estimate the associations between BRRM and the overall and BC-specific mortality rates, separately for BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutation carriers.ResultsDuring a mean follow-up of 10.3 years, 722 out of 1712 BRCA1 (42%) and 406 out of 1145 BRCA2 (35%) mutation carriers underwent BRRM. For BRCA1 mutation carriers, we observed 52 deaths (20 from BC) in the surveillance group, and 10 deaths (one from BC) after BRRM. The hazard ratios were 0.40 (95% CI 0.20–0.90) for overall mortality and 0.06 (95% CI 0.01–0.46) for BC-specific mortality. BC-specific survival at age 65 was 93% for surveillance and 99.7% for BRRM. For BRCA2 mutation carriers, we observed 29 deaths (7 from BC) in the surveillance group, and 4 deaths (no BC) after BRRM. The hazard ratio for overall mortality was 0.45 (95% CI 0.15–1.36). BC-specific survival at age 65 was 98% for surveillance and 100% for BRRM.ConclusionBRRM was associated with lower mortality than surveillance for BRCA1 mutation carriers, but for BRCA2 mutation carriers, BRRM may lead to similar BC-specific survival as surveillance. Our findings support a more individualized counseling based on BRCA mutation type.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (10.1007/s10549-019-05345-2) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.
Background Endometrial cancer (EC) risk in BReast CAncer gene 1/2 (BRCA1/2) mutation carriers is uncertain, therefore we assessed this in a large Dutch nationwide cohort study. Methods 5,980 BRCA1/2 (3,788 BRCA1, 2,151 gBRCA2, 41 both BRCA1/BRCA2) and 8,451 non-BRCA1/2 mutation carriers were selected from the HEBON-cohort. Follow-up started at date of nationwide PALGA coverage (January 1, 1989) or at the age of 25 years (whichever came last), and ended at date of EC diagnosis, last follow-up or death (whichever came first). EC risk in BRCA1/2 mutation carriers was compared to: 1) general population, estimating standardized incidence ratios (SIRs) based on Dutch population-based incidence rates; and 2) non-BRCA1/2 mutation carriers, using Cox-regression analyses, expressed as hazard ratio (HR). Statistical tests were two-sided. Results Fifty-eight BRCA1/2 and 33 non-BRCA1/2 mutation carriers developed EC over 119,296 and 160,841 person-years, respectively (SIR = 2.83, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 2.18–3.65; and HR = 2.37, 95% CI = 1.53–3.69, respectively). gBRCA1 mutation carriers showed increased risks for EC overall (SIR = 3.51, 95% CI = 2.61–4.72; HR = 2.91, 95% CI = 1.83–4.66), serous-like EC (SIR: 12.64, 95% CI = 7.62–20.96; HR = 10.48, 95% CI = 2.95–37.20), endometrioid EC (SIR = 2.63, 95% CI = 1.80–3.83; HR = 2.01, 95% CI = 1.18–3.45) and TP53-mutated EC (HR = 15.71, 95% CI = 4.62–53.40). For BRCA2 mutation carriers, overall (SIR = 1.70, 95% CI = 1.01–2.87), and serous-like EC risks (SIR = 5.11, 95% CI = 1.92–13.63) were increased when compared to the general population. Absolute risks by 75 years remained low (overall EC = 3.0%; serous-like EC = 1.1%). Conclusions BRCA1/2 mutation carriers have a 2- to 3-fold increased risk for EC, with highest risk observed for the rare subgroups of serous-like and p53-abnormal EC in BRCA1 mutation carriers.
Evidence before this study: Acute appendicitis is the most common general surgical emergency in children. Its diagnosis remains challenging and children presenting with acute right iliac fossa (RIF) pain may be admitted for clinical observation or undergo normal appendicectomy (removal of a histologically normal appendix). A search for external validation studies of risk prediction models for acute appendicitis in children was performed on MEDLINE and Web of Science on 12 January 2017 using the search terms ["appendicitis" OR "appendectomy" OR "appendicectomy"] AND ["score" OR "model" OR "nomogram" OR "scoring"]. Studies validating prediction models aimed at differentiating acute appendicitis from all other causes of RIF pain were included. No date restrictions were applied. Validation studies were most commonly performed for the Alvarado, Appendicitis Inflammatory Response Score (AIRS), and Paediatric Appendicitis Score (PAS) models. Most validation studies were based on retrospective, single centre, or small cohorts, and findings regarding model performance were inconsistent. There was no high quality evidence to guide selection of the optimum model and threshold cutoff for identification of low-risk children in the UK and Ireland. Added value of this study: Most children admitted to hospital with RIF pain do not undergo surgery. When children do undergo appendicectomy, removal of a normal appendix (normal appendicectomy) is common, occurring in around 1 in 6 children. The Shera score is able to identify a large low-risk group of children who present with acute RIF pain but do not have acute appendicitis (specificity 44%). This low-risk group has an overall 1 in 30 risk of acute appendicitis and a 1 in 270 risk of perforated appendicitis. The Shera score is unable to achieve a sufficiently high positive predictive value to select a high-risk group who should proceed directly to surgery. Current diagnostic performance of ultrasound is also too poor to select children for surgery. Implications of all the available evidence: Routine pre-operative risk scoring could inform shared decision making by doctors, children, and parents by supporting safe selection of lowrisk patients for ambulatory management, reducing unnecessary admissions and normal appendicectomy. Hospitals should ensure seven-day-a-week availability of ultrasound for medium and high-risk patients. Ultrasound should be performed by operators trained to assess for acute appendicitis in children. For children in whom diagnostic uncertainty remains following ultrasound, magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) or low-dose computed tomography (CT) are second-line investigations.
and International BRCA1/2 Carrier Cohort Study BACKGROUND: Ovarian cancer risk in BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutation carriers has been shown to decrease with longer duration of oral contraceptive use. Although the effects of using oral contraceptives in the general population are well established (approximately 50% risk reduction in ovarian cancer), the estimated risk reduction in mutation carriers is much less precise because of potential bias and small sample sizes. In addition, only a few studies on oral contraceptive use have examined the associations of duration of use, time since last use, starting age, and calendar year of start with risk of ovarian cancer. OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to investigate in more detail the associations of various characteristics of oral contraceptive use and risk of ovarian cancer, to provide healthcare providers and carriers with better risk estimates. STUDY DESIGN: In this international retrospective study, ovarian cancer risk associations were assessed using oral contraceptives data on 3989 BRCA1 and 2445 BRCA2 mutation carriers. Age-dependenteweighted Cox regression analyses were stratified by study and birth cohort and included breast cancer diagnosis as a covariate. To minimize survival bias, analyses were left truncated at 5 years before baseline questionnaire. Separate analyses were conducted for each aspect of oral contraceptive use and in a multivariate analysis, including all these aspects. In addition, the analysis of duration of oral contraceptive use was stratified by recency of use. RESULTS: Oral contraceptives were less often used by mutation carriers who were diagnosed with ovarian cancer (ever use: 58.6% for BRCA1 and 53.5% BRCA2) than by unaffected carriers (ever use: 88.9% for BRCA1 and 80.7% for BRCA2). The median duration of use was 7 years for both BRCA1 and BRCA2 carriers who developed ovarian cancer and 9 and 8 years for unaffected BRCA1 and BRCA2 carriers with ovarian cancer, respectively. For BRCA1 mutation carriers, univariate analyses have shown that both a longer duration of oral contraceptive use and more recent oral contraceptive use were associated with a reduction in the risk of ovarian cancer. However, in multivariate analyses, including duration of use, age at first use, and time since last use, duration of oral contraceptive use proved to be the prominent protective factor (compared with <5 years: 5e9 years [hazard ratio, 0.67; 95% confidence interval, 0.40e1.12]; >10 years [hazard ratio, 0.37; 95% confidence interval, 0.19e0.73]; P trend ¼.008). The inverse association between duration of use and ovarian cancer risk persisted for more than 15 years (duration of !10 years; BRCA1 <15 years since last use [hazard ratio, 0.24; 95% confidence interval, 0.14e0.43]; BRCA1 >15 years since last use [hazard ratio, 0.56; 95% confidence interval, 0.18e0.59]). Univariate results for BRCA2 mutation carriers were similar but were inconclusive because of limited sample size. CONCLUSION: For BRCA1 mutation carriers, longer duration of oral contraceptive use is associ...
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