In this article, we present gsreg, a new automatic model-selection technique for cross-section, time-series, and panel-data regressions. Like other exhaustive search algorithms (for example, vselect), gsreg avoids characteristic path-dependence traps of standard approaches as well as backward-and forwardlooking approaches (like PcGets or relevant transformation of the inputs network approach). However, gsreg is the first code that 1) guarantees optimality with out-of-sample selection criteria; 2) allows residual testing for each alternative; and 3) provides (depending on user specifications) a full-information dataset with outcome statistics for every alternative model.
The aim of this paper is to analyze the relation between foreign asset formation (FAF) and terms of trade (TOT) in countries characterized by unbalanced productive structures (UPS). This is done by modifying the structuralist thesis about the (overstated) positive effects of a rise in TOT on the balance-of-payment equilibrium gross domestic product growth rate. The theoretical analysis follows Thirlwall's law and its subsequent modifications. The paper's main contribution will be to explain and formalize the low-and even null-effects of TOT on balance-of-payment constraints due to the quasi-rent generated in the export sector of a UPS. To reinforce this idea, the empirical section econometrically shows the existence of a significant and positive relationship between TOT and FAF in developing countries.
Despite recognizing the exogenous, cost-push nature of recent inflationary pressures in Latin America, plus the difficulties faced by monetary authorities in dealing, under such circumstances, with internal and external disequilibria simultaneously, intellectual attention in policy circles remains focused on demand-side issues and policy instruments. This paper develops an eclectic model that has the potential to nest demand-side elements, but focuses on cost-push factors -distributional conflict and propagation mechanisms -as typically addressed by the post-Keynesian-structuralist tradition. In addition to shedding some light on the nature of inflationary pressures as experienced in Latin American countries during the recent commodity boom -in particular South American commodity exporting economies -the paper's main goal is to portray the policy and instrumental trade-offs faced by policy-makers themselves. By bringing unconventional policy devices into the model (such as direct interventions in commodity markets), we hope to broaden the scope of the conventional macroeconomic policy instruments.
Existe un consenso generalizado acerca de que de la crisis acaecida entre 2001 y 2002 marcó un cambio en el régimen de acumulación de la economía argentina, hecho que dio lugar a un nuevo modo de desarrollo. El objetivo central del presente artículo radica en abordar las controversias alrededor del mismo con el propósito de perfeccionar la caracterización general del régimen emergente y actualizar su periodización. Al combinar el enfoque institucionalista de la teoría de la regulación con la visión estructuralista latinoamericana de la restricción externa, el modo de regulación de la posconvertibilidad puede dividirse en tres etapas constitutivas de un mismo modo de desarrollo: transición neomercantilista (2002 - 2004), regulacionismo á la Diamand (2004 - 2009) y keynesianismo social con restricción externa (2009 - 2015).
The low power of available econometric tests is an important problem in applied research on unit roots and related issues. Based on the principle of methodological triangulation, the problem should be analyzed from different points of view in order to increase the validity of the results. Following this approach a strategy to test the order of integration in time series is presented using a sequence of eleven consolidated tests. In this way it is possible to determine the persistence of shocks, to specify the best strategy for trend-cycle decomposition and to obtain additional information useful for public policies. As an application of the methodology, the integration properties in the main 14 Argentine macroeconomic variables are studied. A classification of them in four homogenous groups according to their order of integration is obtained. JEL classification codes: C3, C5, E3
This paper aims to explain the causes of the 2018/2019 Argentinian crisis by means of a growth cycle model a la Goodwin, where the aggregate demand is wage-led, the wage-share is predatory of the external sector, and the financial norm stands as an exogenous apex-predator of both real wages and the current account. Its main results allow us to understand the stylized facts of the Argentinian economy: a higher financial norm increases inequality and required current account surpluses, reduces stability, and increases volatility and recessions length.
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