Autism Spectrum Disorders (Autism) are thought to be relatively common, with analyses estimating 1-2% in the population could meet diagnostic criteria. There is debate over whether the number of new cases is rising, with some suggesting an increase, whilst other studies finding no change. In this study we take anonymised healthcare record data from more than 3.6 million people in Wales to produce a national estimate of prevalence and incidence. We found the overall prevalence rate of autism in the population was 0.51%. The number of new-recorded cases of autism increased from 0.19% per 1000 person-years in 2001 to 0.64% per 1000 person-years in 2016. The estimate of 0.51% prevalence in the population is lower than suggested by previous studies, potentially due to underdiagnosis or lack of recognition by services. From 2000-2016 the number of autism services for adults has increased, and autism is more widely known in society. We suggest that these extra services and awareness have contributed to the 3.4-fold rise in new autism diagnoses over the study and the >150% increase in the years 2008-2016. Our study suggests that while the number of people being diagnosed with autism is increasing, many are still missed by healthcare services.
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