Las opiniones contenidas en el presente documento son responsabilidad exclusiva de los autores y no comprometen al Banco de la República ni a su Junta Directiva.
We construct the Labor Market Indicator (LMI) focusing on the cyclical similarities of eighteen time series from household, industrial, and opinion surveys between 2001 and 2019. The LMI summarizes the growth cycle of the labor market as defined by \cite{mintz} and is connected to the evolution of the traditional business cycle indicators as well as to that of the GDP and the Unemployment rate GAP. The evolution of the indicator provide useful information to policy makers, as it complements the characterization of expansions and turning points. Thus, improving the analysis of the current momentum of the labor market.
Although the unemployment rate is traditionally used to diagnose the current state of the labor market, this indicator does not reflect the existence of asymmetries, mobility costs, and rigidities which impede labor to freely flow over the business cycle. Thus, to get a better portrait of the momentum, we construct the Labor Market Indicator (LMI) focusing on the cyclical similarities of eighteen time series from the Colombian household, industrial, and opinion surveys between 2001 and 2019. Our indicator summarizes the growth cycle of the labor market and its evolution is closely related to the output and unemployment GAP. This indicator is useful for policy analysis as it is useful to forecast headline inflation, it also complements the diagnosis of the current momentum of the labor market, the general economic activity, and the characterization of economic phases and turning points.
Evaluación de la transmisión de la tasa de interés de referencia a las tasas de interés del sistema financiero considerando las expectativas de los agentes Por: Deicy Cristiano-Botia Eliana González-Molano Carlos Huertas-Campos Núm. 988 2017Evaluación de la transmisión de la tasa de interés de referencia a las tasas de interés del sistema financiero considerando las expectativas de los agentes 1 Deicy Cristiano-Botia, Eliana González-Molano, Carlos Huertas-Campos ResumenMediante técnicas econométricas se determina si las expectativas de la tasa de interés de política y los choques no anticipados de la misma afectan las tasas de interés de captación y crédito. Se encuentra evidencia empírica de que las sorpresas monetarias tienen poder explicativo en los movimientos de tasas de mercado para las captaciones y créditos comerciales. Así mismo, se encuentra que las entidades financieras tienen en cuenta las expectativas sobre la tasa de intervención para fijar su tasa de captación. Por otro lado, se encuentra que las entidades financieras se anticipan a los movimientos de tasa de política y modifican sus tasas de captación antes del anuncio del Banco Central, y que tanto el día del anuncio como posterior a este no se realizan ajustes significativos en las tasas de mercado. JEL: D84, E43, E52, E58Palabras claves: Expectativas, politica monetaria, tasas de interés, mecanismos de transmisión. AbstractAlternative economic models are used to determine whether policy interest rate expectations and unanticipated changes in the reference interest rate affect saving and credit interest rates. We found empirical evidence that policy surprises have predict power over fixing passive and active interest rates. similarly, results show that to fix their interest rate financial entities take into account their expectations about policy rate. On the other hand, we found evidence of changes in deposits rates in advance the announcement of the monetary authority and no significance change on the day of the announcement and the day after.
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