This research contributes an operational checklist for mitigating cognitive biases in the aerospace sector risk management process. The Risk Identification and Evaluation Bias Reduction Checklist includes steps forgrounding the risk identification and evaluation activities in past project experiences through historical data, and emphasizes the importance of incorporating multiple methods and perspectives to guard against optimism and a singular project instantiation-focused view. The authors developed a survey to elicit subject matter expert judgment on the value of the checklist to support its use in government and industry as a risk management tool. The survey also provided insights on bias mitigation strategies and lessons learned. This checklist addresses the deficiency in the literature in providing operational steps for the practitioner to recognize and implement strategies for bias reduction in risk management in the aerospace sector. //doi.org/10.22594/dau.16-770.25 This article and its accompanying research contribute an operational Risk Identification and Evaluation Bias Reduction Checklist for cognitive bias mitigation in risk management for the aerospace sector. The checklist described herein offers a practical and implementable project management framework to help reduce biases in the aerospace sector and redress the cognitive limitations in the risk identification and analysis process. Detailed discussion focuses on the development of strategies targeted at reducing four cognitive biases and their influence on the risk identification process, and to the development and validation of the practitioner checklist. DOI: https: Background and LiteratureThe authors' research began with a review of the literature, which covered the areas of risk management, cognitive biases, and bias enabling conditions. The biases of optimism, planning fallacy, anchoring, and ambiguity effect were deemed particularly influential to the risk identification and evaluation processes. The authors reviewed and synthesized the bias mitigation literature and developed the initial bias reduction checklist. After the development of the initial checklist, they designed and administered the survey to seek feedback and validation of the checklist as a risk management tool. A Likert-scale instrument was used for the survey, which is an appropriate instrument for measuring attitudes and beliefs. The answers to the open-ended questions of the survey provided insights, lessons learned, as well as other measures that are used by practitioners to reduce biases. The survey design, data collection, and analysis followed the academic literature guidelines for garnering attitudes and feedback on the effectiveness of the checklist as a risk management tool.Nonetheless, the authors recognize that like any of the measurement methods in the science disciplines, the social or attitude survey method is not error-free (Fowler, 2013). The authors incorporated the feedback from both the Likert survey and the open-ended questions into the final checklis...
This paper updates a previous effort investigating how the evolution of initial concept designs are related to the cost and schedule growth of missions. 12 The paper shows examples of the design evolution, and associated cost and schedule growth, for twenty historical NASA missions. Issues behind the cost and schedule growth of missions are varied, but in part may be attributed to systems that have changed substantially from those examined at initial concept through to launch. Historical resource growth is investigated for a variety of missions and mission types to provide guidelines and lessons learned to be used during the initial conceptual design stage for future missions. The data developed for the paper should help both project managers and cost and schedule estimators to develop more robust estimates earlier in the design process.
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