Projecting the consequences of warming and sea-ice loss for Arctic marine food web and fisheries is challenging due to the intricate relationships between biology and ice. We used StrathE2EPolar, an end-to-end (microbes-to-megafauna) food web model incorporating ice-dependencies to simulate climate-fisheries interactions in the Barents Sea. The model was driven by output from the NEMO-MEDUSA earth system model, assuming RCP 8.5 atmospheric forcing. The Barents Sea was projected to be > 95% ice-free all year-round by the 2040s compared to > 50% in the 2010s, and approximately 2 °C warmer. Fisheries management reference points (FMSY and BMSY) for demersal fish (cod, haddock) were projected to increase by around 6%, indicating higher productivity. However, planktivorous fish (capelin, herring) reference points were projected to decrease by 15%, and upper trophic levels (birds, mammals) were strongly sensitive to planktivorous fish harvesting. The results indicate difficult trade-offs ahead, between harvesting and conservation of ecosystem structure and function.
The Nordic krill Meganyctiphanes norvegica and Arctic krill Thysanoessa raschii both dominate the krill community within the Estuary and Gulf of St. Lawrence system where they are central forage species for its pelagic ecosystem. We developed a species‐specific physiological individual based model that implements the critical physiological processes of growth, molting, and reproduction of female adults as responses to environmental forcing. Key innovations of our approach were the decoupling between the molting schedule and growth, as well as considering two distinct sources of prey (phytoplankton and mesozooplankton). Our simulation results revealed that the details of the feeding process were critical for an accurate representation of the production dynamics of adult individuals from both species. Their specific feeding preferences on phytoplankton and mesozooplankton resulted in distinct species‐specific phenological patterns that reproduced observations. The present study highlights the importance of detailed knowledge of diet and feeding behavior of krill species to improve our understanding of population responses in a rapidly changing environment.
Rising temperatures are melting the ice that covers the Arctic Ocean, allowing sunlight into waters that have been dark for thousands of years. Previously barren ice-covered regions are being transformed into productive seas. In this article, we explain how computer modeling can be used to predict how this transformation will a ect the food web that connects plankton to fish and top predators, like whales and polar bears. Images of starving polar bears have become symbolic of the e ects of the warming climate. Melting of the sea-ice is expected to reduce the bears' ability to hunt for seals. However, at the same time, the food web upon which bears depend is becoming more productive, so it is not completely clear what the eventual outcome will be. Computer models help us to understand these systems and help us make policy decisions about the management of newly available Arctic resources.
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