OBJECTIVE:To develop models for estimating the length of hospital stay (LOS) of very low birth weight infants (VLBW), based on perinatal risk factors present during the first week of life and during the entire hospitalization period. STUDY DESIGN:The files of 155 VLBW were analyzed, and the influence of individual risk factors were initially evaluated by univariate analysis, using multipleregression. Two mathematical models were built to estimate the LOS. RESULTS:The first model, using risk factors present during the first 3 days of life, is as follows: LOS ϭ Ϫ0. CONCLUSION:Both models are applicable for estimating the hospitalization period, and the addition of variables present during the entire hospitalization period improved the accuracy of the model. In recent decades, there was an increase in preterm newborn's survival, especially among those with very low birth weight (VLBW; Յ1500 gm), as a result of technological and therapeutic improvements that occurred in perinatal assistance. 1 As a consequence, the number of children who need a longer hospitalization period in neonatal units has been increasing proportionally. It is frequently observed that, after recovering from the impact of a preterm birth, the parents expose their worries related to the moment of discharge. Despite many explanations about the criteria used for discharging, the neonatologist is usually taken by surprise with the question: "When will my baby go home?"In the literature there are a few studies that attempt to answer this question, based on perinatal risk factors, but the majority analyze the relationship between hospitalization time and birth weight and/or gestational age, without taking into consideration the presence or absence of other perinatal risk factors. 2,3 In 1992, Powell et al. 4 determined 17 perinatal factors related to the hospitalization time, among 762 infants admitted to the Hope Hospital (Salford, UK), between April 1986 and November 1990, and concluded that the most important predictive factor was the gestational age (R 2 ϭ 0.39), followed by low birth weight (R 2 ϭ 0.35), and then by the presence of respiratory difficulties (R 2 ϭ 0.18).As a result of the analysis of these aspects, we chose in the present study to create mathematical models for estimating the hospitalization time, with greater accuracy than that achieved by other options presently available. These models are based on two perinatal risk factor groups: those present during the first week of life and those present during the entire hospitalization period. MATERIALS AND METHODSThe medical records were reviewed of the VLBW population admitted in the nursery from January 1992 to December 1993. The discharge criteria used was a regular weight gain in the range of 20 to 30 gm/d, good oral feeding, absence of clinical complications, and body weight Ն 2000 gm. The cases in which the LOS could not be determined due to transference to other units (necessity of cardiac or gastrointestinal surgery) or to patient death were excluded from the analysis.The influ...
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