Wetlands are one of the most biologically productive ecosystems. Wetland ecosystem services, ranging from provision of food security to climate change mitigation, are enormous, far outweighing those of dryland ecosystems per hectare. However, land use change and water regulation infrastructure have reduced connectivity in many river systems and with floodplain and estuarine wetlands. Mangrove forests are critical communities for carbon uptake and storage, pollution control and detoxification, and regulation of natural hazards. Although the clearing of mangroves in Australia is strictly regulated, Great Barrier Reef catchments have suffered landscape modifications and hydrological alterations that can kill mangroves. We used remote sensing datasets to investigate land cover change and both intra- and inter-annual seasonality in mangrove forests in a large estuarine region of Central Queensland, Australia, which encompasses a national park and Ramsar Wetland, and is adjacent to the Great Barrier Reef World Heritage site. We built a time series using spectral, auxiliary, and phenology variables with Landsat surface reflectance products, accessed in Google Earth Engine. Two land cover classes were generated (mangrove versus non-mangrove) in a Random Forest classification. Mangroves decreased by 1480 hectares (−2.31%) from 2009 to 2019. The overall classification accuracies and Kappa coefficient for 2008–2010 and 2018–2020 land cover maps were 95% and 95%, respectively. Using an NDVI-based time series we examined intra- and inter-annual seasonality with linear and harmonic regression models, and second with TIMESAT metrics of mangrove forests in three sections of our study region. Our findings suggest a relationship between mangrove growth phenology along with precipitation anomalies and severe tropical cyclone occurrence over the time series. The detection of responses to extreme events is important to improve understanding of the connections between climate, extreme weather events, and biodiversity in estuarine and mangrove ecosystems.

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Great Barrier Reef catchments are under pressure from the effects of climate change, landscape modifications, and hydrology alterations. With the use of remote sensing datasets covering large areas, conventional methods of change detection can expose broad transitions, whereas workflows that excerpt data for time-series trends divulge more subtle transformations of land cover modification. Here, we combine both these approaches to investigate change and trends in a large estuarine region of Central Queensland, Australia, that encompasses a national park and is adjacent to the Great Barrier Reef World Heritage site. Nine information classes were compiled in a maximum likelihood post classification change analysis in 2004–2017. Mangroves decreased (1146 hectares), as was the case with estuarine wetland (1495 hectares), and saltmarsh grass (1546 hectares). The overall classification accuracies and Kappa coefficient for 2004, 2006, 2009, 2013, 2015, and 2017 land cover maps were 85%, 88%, 88%, 89%, 81%, and 92%, respectively. The cumulative area of open forest, estuarine wetland, and saltmarsh grass (1628 hectares) was converted to pasture in a thematic change analysis showing the “from–to” change. We generated linear regression relationships to examine trends in pixel values across the time series. Our findings from a trend analysis showed a decreasing trend (p value range = 0.001–0.099) in the vegetation extent of open forest, fringing mangroves, estuarine wetlands, saltmarsh grass, and grazing areas, but this was inconsistent across the study site. Similar to reports from tropical regions elsewhere, saltmarsh grass is poorly represented in the national park. A severe tropical cyclone preceding the capture of the 2017 Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI) image was likely the main driver for reduced areas of shoreline and stream vegetation. Our research contributes to the body of knowledge on coastal ecosystem dynamics to enable planning to achieve more effective conservation outcomes.

Context Coastal and estuarine finfish species are responding to human-induced climate change by altering their distributions. In tropical regions, the species mostly affected by warming have limited acclimation capacity or live close to their upper thermal limits. Consequently, coastal fish assemblages may dramatically contract in range, experience declining population abundance or local extinction. Aim Here we use two different predictive modelling techniques that cope with non-linear empirical relationships between responses and environmental predictors to investigate distribution change. Methods The habitat-suitability models we use are the maximum entropy model (MaxEnt) and the generalised additive model (GAM). We built the models for the period 2004–2019 with environmental data relevant to coastal systems. We incorporated climate change at current conditions, near future (2015–2054) and distant future (2055–2100) from CMIP6 climate models. Key results We identified bathymetry and sea-surface temperature to be key variables explaining the current and future distribution of coastal finfish and elasmobranchs of the Great Barrier Reef coast in central Queensland. Conclusions We showed how the distributions of valuable fisheries species will change under future warming conditions. Implications The objective is to inform fisheries management supporting the restructure of existing fisheries or the development of new resources for the dual purposes of conservation and food security.

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