A Horvitz-Thompson-type estimator is introduced to estimate total abundance of the Bering-Chukchi-Beaufort Seas population of bowhead whales using combined visual and acoustic location data. The estimator divides sightings counts by three correction factors that are themselves estimated from various portions of the data. The first correction models how detection probabilities depend on covariates like offshore distance and visibility. The second correction adjusts for availability using the acoustic location data to estimate a time-varying smooth function of the probability that animals pass within visual range of the observation stations. The third correction accounts for whales passing during periods when one or both sighting stations were temporarily closed down. We derive an asymptotically unbiased estimator of abundance incorporating all these components and a corresponding variance estimate. Correcting the count of 4011 observed whales yields a 2011 abundance estimate of 16,820 with a 95% confidence interval of (15,176, 18,643) and an estimated annual rate of population increase of 3.7% (2.9%, 4.6%). These results are indicative of very low conservation risk for this population under the current low levels of aboriginal hunting permitted by the International Whaling Commission. Although few other capture-recapture surveys will confront exactly the same set of challenges addressed here, many studies face one or more issues that could be resolved by adapting portions of our approach or relevant underlying concepts thereof. Moreover, the generic estimator we derive represents an improved way to handle random correction factors rather than assuming fixed values.

No abstract

No abstract

The Winter Colloquium on the Physics of Quantum Electronics (PQE) has been a seminal force in quantum optics and related areas since 1971. It is rather mindboggling to recognize how the concepts presented at these conferences have transformed scientific understanding and human society. In January, 2017, the participants of PQE were asked to consider the equally important prospects for the future, and to formulate a set of questions representing some of the greatest aspirations in this broad field. The result is this multi-authored paper, in which many of the world's leading experts address the following fundamental questions:(1) What is the future of gravitational wave astronomy? (2) Are there new quantum phases of matter away from equilibrium that can be found and exploited -such as the time crystal? (3) Quantum theory in uncharted territory: What can we learn? (4) What are the ultimate limits for laser photon energies? (5) What are the ultimate limits to temporal, spatial, and optical resolution? (6) What novel roles will atoms play in technology? (7) What applications lie ahead for nitrogen-vacancy centers in diamond? (8) What is the future of quantum coherence, squeezing, and entanglement for enhanced superresolution and sensing? (9) How can we solve (some of) humanity's biggest problems through new quantum technologies? (10) What new understanding of materials and biological molecules will result from their dynamical characterization with free electron lasers? (11) What new technologies and fundamental discoveries might quantum optics achieve by the end of this century? (12) What novel topological structures can be created and employed in quantum optics?