ObjectiveWe aimed at identifying baseline predictive factors for emergency department (ED) readmission, with hospitalisation/death, in patients with COVID-19 previously discharged from the ED. We also developed a disease progression velocity index.Design and settingRetrospective cohort study of prospectively collected data. The charts of consecutive patients with COVID-19 discharged from the Reggio Emilia (Italy) ED (2 March 2 to 31 March 2020) were retrospectively examined. Clinical, laboratory and CT findings at first ED admission were tested as predictive factors using multivariable logistic models. We divided CT extension by days from symptom onset to build a synthetic velocity index.Participants450 patients discharged from the ED with diagnosis of COVID-19.Main outcome measureED readmission within 14 days, followed by hospitalisation/death.ResultsOf the discharged patients, 84 (18.7%) were readmitted to the ED, 61 (13.6%) were hospitalised and 10 (2.2%) died. Age (OR=1.05; 95% CI 1.03 to 1.08), Charlson Comorbidity Index 3 versus 0 (OR=11.61; 95% CI 1.76 to 76.58), days from symptom onset (OR for 1-day increase=0.81; 95% CI 0.73 to 0.90) and CT extension (OR for 1% increase=1.03; 95% CI 1.01 to 1.06) were associated in a multivariable model for readmission with hospitalisation/death. A 2-day lag velocity index was a strong predictor (OR for unit increase=1.21, 95% CI 1.08 to 1.36); the model including this index resulted in less information loss.ConclusionsA velocity index combining CT extension and days from symptom onset predicts disease progression in patients with COVID-19. For example, a 20% CT extension 3 days after symptom onset has the same risk as does 50% after 10 days.

Background: Early prognostication in trauma patients is challenging, but particularly important. We wanted to explore the ability of copeptin, the C-terminal fragment of arginine vasopressin, to identify major trauma, defined as Injury Severity Score (ISS) > 15, in a heterogeneous cohort of trauma patients and to compare its performances with lactate. We also evaluated copeptin performance in predicting other clinical outcomes: mortality, hospital admission, blood transfusion, emergency surgery, and Intensive Care Unit (ICU) admission. Methods: This single center, pragmatic, prospective observational study was conducted at Arcispedale Santa Maria Nuova, a level II trauma center in Reggio Emilia, Italy. Copeptin determination was obtained on Emergency Department (ED) arrival, together with venous lactate. Different outcomes were measured including ISS, Revised Trauma Score (RTS), hospital and ICU admission, blood transfusion, emergency surgery, and mortality. Results: One hundred and twenty five adult trauma patients admitted to the ED between June 2017 and March 2018. Copeptin showed a good ability to identify patients with ISS > 15 (AUC 0.819). Similar good performances were recorded also in predicting other outcomes. Copeptin was significantly superior to lactate in identifying patients with ISS > 15 (P 0.0015), and in predicting hospital admission (P 0.0002) and blood transfusion (P 0.016). Comparable results were observed in a subgroup of patients with RTS 7.84. Conclusions: In a heterogeneous group of trauma patients, a single copeptin determination at the time of ED admission proved to be an accurate biomarker, statistically superior to lactate for the identification of major trauma, hospital admission, and blood transfusion, while no statistical difference was observed for ICU admission and emergency surgery. These results, if confirmed, may support a role for copeptin during early management of trauma patients.