During the Pacific marine heatwave of 2014–2016, abundance and quality of several key forage fish species in the Gulf of Alaska were simultaneously reduced throughout the system. Capelin (Mallotus catervarius), sand lance (Ammodytes personatus), and herring (Clupea pallasii) populations were at historically low levels, and within this community abrupt declines in portfolio effects identify trophic instability at the onset of the heatwave. Although compensatory changes in age structure, size, growth or energy content of forage fish were observed to varying degrees among all these forage fish, none were able to fully mitigate adverse impacts of the heatwave, which likely included both top‐down and bottom‐up forcing. Notably, changes to the demographic structure of forage fish suggested size‐selective removals typical of top‐down regulation. At the same time, changes in zooplankton communities may have driven bottom‐up regulation as copepod community structure shifted toward smaller, warm water species, and euphausiid biomass was reduced owing to the loss of cold‐water species. Mediated by these impacts on the forage fish community, an unprecedented disruption of the normal pelagic food web was signaled by higher trophic level disruptions during 2015–2016, when seabirds, marine mammals, and groundfish experienced shifts in distribution, mass mortalities, and reproductive failures. Unlike decadal‐scale variability underlying ecosystem regime shifts, the heatwave appeared to temporarily overwhelm the ability of the forage fish community to buffer against changes imposed by warm water anomalies, thereby eliminating any ecological advantages that may have accrued from having a suite of coexisting forage species with differing life‐history compensations.

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The location and timing of spawning play a critical role in pelagic fish survival during early life stages and can affect subsequent recruitment. Spawning patterns of Pacific herring (Clupea pallasii) were examined in Prince William Sound (1973–2019) where the population has failed to recover since its collapse in 1993. Abrupt shifts in spawn distribution preceded the rapid increase in population size in the 1980s and later its collapse by one and two years, respectively. Following the population collapse, spawning contracted away from historical regions towards southeastern areas of the Sound, and the proportion of occupied spawning areas declined from 65% to <9%. Spatial differences in spawn timing variation were also apparent, as the median spawn date shifted earlier by 26 days in eastern and 15 days in western areas of Prince William Sound between 1980 and 2006, and then shifted later by 25 (eastern) and 19 (western) days over a 7-year period. Effects of contracted spawning areas and timing shifts on first-year survival and recruitment are uncertain and require future investigation.

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Pacific capelin Mallotus catervarius are planktivorous small pelagic fish that serve an intermediate trophic role in marine food webs. Due to the lack of a directed fishery or monitoring of capelin in the Northeast Pacific, limited information is available on their distribution and abundance, and how spatio-temporal fluctuations in capelin density affect their availability as prey. To provide information on life history, spatial patterns, and population dynamics of capelin in the Gulf of Alaska (GOA), we modeled distributions of spawning habitat and larval dispersal, and synthesized spatially indexed data from multiple independent sources from 1996 to 2016. Potential capelin spawning areas were broadly distributed across the GOA. Models of larval drift show the GOA’s advective circulation patterns disperse capelin larvae over the continental shelf and upper slope, indicating potential connections between spawning areas and observed offshore distributions that are influenced by the location and timing of spawning. Spatial overlap in composite distributions of larval and age-1+ fish was used to identify core areas where capelin consistently occur and concentrate. Capelin primarily occupy shelf waters near the Kodiak Archipelago, and are patchily distributed across the GOA shelf and inshore waters. Interannual variations in abundance along with spatio-temporal differences in density indicate that the availability of capelin to predators and monitoring surveys is highly variable in the GOA. We demonstrate that the limitations of individual data series can be compensated for by integrating multiple data sources to monitor fluctuations in distributions and abundance trends of an ecologically important species across a large marine ecosystem.