In recent years, the vast penetration of renewable energy sources has introduced a large degree of uncertainty into the power system, thus leading to increased trading activity in the continuous intra-day electricity market. In this paper, we propose an agent-based modeling framework to analyze the behavior and the interactions between renewable energy sources, consumers and thermal power plants in the European Continuous Intra-day (CID) market. Additionally, we propose a novel adaptive trading strategy that can be used by the agents that participate in CID market. The agents learn how to adapt their behavior according to the arrival of new information and how to react to changing market conditions by updating their willingness to trade. A comparative analysis was performed to study the behavior of agents when they adopt the proposed strategy as opposed to other benchmark strategies. The effects of unexpected outages and information asymmetry on the market evolution and the market liquidity were also investigated.
This paper studies the problem of siting renewable power generation assets using large amounts of climatological data while accounting for their spatiotemporal complementarity. The problem is cast as a combinatorial optimisation problem selecting a pre-specified number of sites so as to minimise the number of simultaneous low electricity production events that they experience relative to a pre-specified reference production level. It is shown that the resulting model is closely related to submodular optimisation and can be interpreted as generalising the well-known maximum coverage problem. Both deterministic and randomised algorithms are discussed, including greedy, local search and relaxation-based heuristics as well as combinations of these algorithms. The usefulness of the model and methods is illustrated by a realistic case study inspired by the problem of siting onshore wind power plants in Europe, resulting in instances featuring over ten thousand candidate locations and ten years of hourly-sampled meteorological data. The proposed solution methods are benchmarked against a state-of-the-art mixed-integer programming solver and several algorithms are found to consistently produce better solutions at a fraction of the computational cost. The physical nature of solutions provided by the model is also investigated, and all deployment patterns are found to be unable to supply a constant share of the electricity demand at all times. Finally, a cross-validation analysis shows that, except for an edge case, the model can successfully and reliably identify deployment patterns that perform well on previously unseen climatological data from historical data spanning a small number of weather years.
In 2013, the European Network of Transmission System Operators (TSOs) for Electricity (ENTSO-E) created the Pan-European Climate Database (PECD), a tool that has underpinned most studies conducted by TSOs ever since. So far, the different versions of the PECD have used so-called modern-era “reanalysis” products that represent a gridded amalgamation of historical conditions from observations. However, scientific evidence suggests, and recent European regulation requires, that power system adequacy studies should take climate change into account when estimating the future potential of variable renewable resources, such as wind, solar and hydro, and the impact of temperature on electricity demand. This paper explains the need for future climate data in energy systems studies and provides high-level recommendations for building a future-proof reference climate dataset for TSOs, not just in Europe, but also globally.
This paper provides a detailed account of the impact of different offshore wind siting strategies on the design of the European power system. To this end, a two-stage method is proposed. In the first stage, a highly-granular siting problem identifies a suitable set of sites where offshore wind plants could be deployed according to a pre-specified criterion. Two siting schemes are analysed and compared within a realistic case study. These schemes essentially select a pre-specified number of sites so as to maximize their aggregate power output and their spatiotemporal complementarity, respectively. In addition, two variants of these siting schemes are provided, wherein the number of sites to be selected is specified on a country-by-country basis rather than Europe-wide. In the second stage, the subset of previously-identified sites is passed to a capacity expansion planning framework that sizes the power generation, transmission and storage assets that should be deployed and operated in order to satisfy pre-specified electricity demand levels at minimum cost. Results show that the complementarity-based siting criterion leads to system designs which are up to 5% cheaper than the ones relying on the power output-based scheme when offshore wind plants are deployed with no consideration for country-based deployment targets. On the contrary, the power output-based scheme leads to system designs which are consistently 2% cheaper than the ones leveraging the complementarity-based siting strategy when such constraints are enforced. The robustness of the reported results is supported by a sensitivity analysis on offshore wind capital expenditure and inter-annual weather variability, respectively.
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