After a prolonged period characterized by rapid real appreciation in house prices, there is now broad recognition of the severe correction in housing markets that followed as one of the causes of the 2008-09 global recession. We investigate the time series characteristics of three relevant price indicators of the housing market-real house prices, price-to-income, and price-to-rent ratios-for the U.S. and 21 other countries during the period 1975Q1-2013Q2 (see Mack and Martínez-García (2011)) for evidence of explosive behavior as a plausible explanation for the boom and bust. The empirical detection of explosive behavior in house prices provides a precise timeline as well as empirical content to the narrative connecting the evolution of housing markets to the global recession; our rich cross-country dataset o¤ers a novel international perspective. For testing and detection, we adopt a pair of novel techniques based on a right-tail variation of the standard Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF ) test-the supremum ADF (SADF ) ) and the generalized SADF (GSADF ) (Phillips et al. (2012) and Phillips et al. (2013))-where the alternative hypothesis is of a mildly explosive process (even periodically collapsing with the GSADF test) behavior within sample. Statistically signi…cant periods of exuberance are found in most countries, with our empirical estimates suggesting an unprecendented synchronization across countries preceeding the global recession. The boom in housing begins during the late 90s in the U.S. spreading to most countries by the early 2000s, until it bursts for most during 2007 08 as the impact on economic activity was being felt. In this regard, our …ndings corroborate the narrative of the 2008-09 global recession. In this paper, we also discuss more generally the use of these procedures to monitor international housing markets and as a warning signal.JEL Classi…cation: C22, G12, R30, R31
Introduction
A shift in focus towards risk stratification and survivorship in early stage endometrial cancer (EC) has led to the replacement of hospital follow‐up (HFU) with patient‐initiated follow‐up (PIFU) schemes.
Methods
A mixed methods study was undertaken prospectively to investigate utility and patient satisfaction with a newly introduced PIFU scheme.
Results
Two hundred and twenty‐eight women were enrolled onto PIFU in the first 18 months, median age 65 years (range 42–90 years). Twenty‐four (10.5%) women were non‐British White ethnicity. Forty‐five women contacted the Clinical Nurse Specialist (CNS) at least once (19.7%), the primary reason being vaginal bleeding/discharge (42%). Contact was greater in first six months on the scheme compared to the second 6 months, and women who made contact were significantly younger than those who did not (57 years vs. 65 years, p < 0.001).
Conclusions
PIFU appears to be well received by the majority of women. Although many of the CNS contacts were due to physical symptoms, a number were for psychological support or reassurance. Younger women had greater CNS contact indicating that they may benefit from a greater level support. Patient feedback of the PIFU scheme was positive, with many women reporting that it enabled them to have more control over their own health.
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