To characterize the nature of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in different regions of the Pacific have been used. An optimal characterization of both the distinct character and the evolution of each El Niño or La Niña event is suggested that requires at least two indices: (i) SST anomalies in the Niño-3.4 region (referred to as N3.4), and (ii) a new index termed here the Trans-Niño Index (TNI), which is given by the difference in normalized anomalies of SST between Niño-1ϩ2 and Niño-4 regions. The first index can be thought of as the mean SST throughout the equatorial Pacific east of the date line and the second index is the gradient in SST across the same region. Consequently, they are approximately orthogonal. TNI leads N3.4 by 3 to 12 months prior to the climate shift in 1976/77 and also follows N3.4 but with opposite sign 3 to 12 months later. However, after 1976/77, the sign of the TNI leads and lags are reversed.
The origins of the delayed increases in global surface temperature accompanying El Niño events and the implications for the role of diabatic processes in El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are explored. The evolution of global mean surface temperatures, zonal means and fields of sea surface temperatures, land surface temperatures, precipitation, outgoing longwave radiation, vertically integrated diabatic heating and divergence of atmospheric energy transports, and ocean heat content in the Pacific is documented using correlation and regression analysis. For 1950–1998, ENSO linearly accounts for 0.06°C of global surface temperature increase. Warming events peak 3 months after SSTs in the Niño 3.4 region, somewhat less than is found in previous studies. Warming at the surface progressively extends to about ±30° latitude with lags of several months. While the development of ocean heat content anomalies resembles that of the delayed oscillator paradigm, the damping of anomalies through heat fluxes into the atmosphere introduces a substantial diabatic component to the discharge and recharge of the ocean heat content. However, most of the delayed warming outside of the tropical Pacific comes from persistent changes in atmospheric circulation forced from the tropical Pacific. A major part of the ocean heat loss to the atmosphere is through evaporation and thus is realized in the atmosphere as latent heating in precipitation, which drives teleconnections. Reduced precipitation and increased solar radiation in Australia, Southeast Asia, parts of Africa, and northern South America contribute to surface warming that peaks several months after the El Niño event. Teleconnections contribute to the extensive warming over Alaska and western Canada through a deeper Aleutian low and stronger southerly flow into these regions 0–12 months later. The 1976/1977 climate shift and the effects of two major volcanic eruptions in the past 2 decades are reflected in different evolution of ENSO events. At the surface, for 1979–1998 the warming in the central equatorial Pacific develops from the west and progresses eastward, while for 1950–1978 the anomalous warming begins along the coast of South America and spreads westward. The eastern Pacific south of the equator warms 4–8 months later for 1979–1998 but cools from 1950 to 1978.
Vertically integrated atmospheric energy and heat budgets are presented with a focus on the zonal mean transports and divergences of dry static energy, latent energy, their sum (the moist static energy), and the total (which includes kinetic energy), as well as their partitioning into the within-month transient and quasi-stationary components. The latter includes the long-term mean and interannual variability from 1979 to 2001 and, in the Tropics, corresponds to the large-scale overturning global monsoon and the embedded Hadley and Walker circulations. In the extratropics, it includes the quasi-stationary planetary waves, which are primarily a factor in the Northern Hemisphere winter. In addition to the mean annual cycle, results are presented for the interannual variability. In the extratropics, poleward transports of both latent and dry static energy reinforce one another. However, the results highlight strong cancellations between the transports of latent and dry static energy in the Tropics as moisture is converted into latent heat, and also between quasi-stationary and transient components in the extratropics. Hence the total energy transports and divergences are fairly seamless with latitude and the total interannual variability is substantially less than that of the components. The strong interplay between the transient and quasi-stationary waves in the atmosphere highlights the symbiotic relationship between them, as the stationary waves determine the location and intensity of the storm tracks while the transient disturbances help maintain the stationary waves. These results highlight that observationally there is a very strong constraint that the global energy budget places on atmospheric dynamics.
Comprehensive diagnostic comparisons and evaluations have been carried out with the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) and European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) reanalyses of the vertically integrated atmospheric energy budgets. For 1979 to 1993 the focus is on the monthly means of the divergence of the atmospheric energy transports. For February 1985 to April 1989, when there are reliable top-of-the-atmosphere (TOA) radiation data from the Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE), the implied monthly mean surfacē uxes are derived and compared with those from the assimilating models and from the Comprehensive Ocean Atmosphere Data Set (COADS), both locally and zonally integrated, to deduce the implied ocean meridional heat transports.While broadscale aspects and some details of both the divergence of atmospheric energy and the surface¯ux climatological means are reproducible, especially in the zonal means, dierences are also readily apparent. Systematic dierences are typically $20 W m À2 . The evaluation highlights the poor results over land. Land imbalances indicate local errors in the divergence of the atmospheric energy transports for monthly means on scales of 500 km (T31) of 30 W m À2 in both reanalyses and $50 W m À2 in areas of high topography and over Antarctica for NCEP/NCAR. Over the oceans in the extratropics, the monthly mean anomaly time series of the vertically integrated total energy divergence from the two reanalyses correspond reasonably well, with correlations exceeding 0.7. A common monthly mean climate signal of about 40 W m À2 is inferred along with local errors of 25 to 30 W m À2 in most extratropical regions.Except for large scales, there is no useful common signal in the tropics, and reproducibility is especially poor in regions of active convection and where stratocumulus prevails. Although time series of monthly anomalies of surface bulk¯uxes from the two models and COADS agree very well over the northern extratropical oceans, the total ®elds all contain large systematic biases which make them unsuitable for determining ocean heat transports. TOA biases in absorbed shortwave, outgoing longwave and net radiation from both reanalysis models are substantial (>20 W m À2 in the tropics) and indicate that clouds are a primary source of problems in the model¯uxes, both at the surface and the TOA. Time series of monthly COADS surface¯uxes are shown to be unreliable south of about 20 N where there are fewer than 25 observations per 5 square per month. Only the derived surface¯uxes give reasonable implied meridional ocean heat transports.
A detailed vertically integrated atmospheric heat and energy budget is presented along with estimated heat budgets at the surface and top-of-atmosphere for the subtropics. It is shown that the total energy transports are remarkably seamless in spite of greatly varying mechanisms. From the Tropics to about 31Њ latitude, the primary transport mechanisms are the Hadley and Walker overturning circulations. In the extratropics the energy transports are carried out by baroclinic eddies broadly organized into storm tracks and quasi-stationary waves that covary in a symbiotic way as the location and activity in storm tracks are determined by, and in turn help maintain through eddy transports, the quasi-stationary flow. In the upward branch of the Hadley cell, the predominant diabatic process is latent heating that results from convergence of moisture by the circulation itself. Hence large poleward transports of dry static energy are compensated by equatorward transports of latent energy, resulting in a modest poleward transport of moist static energy. The subsidence warming in the downward branch is compensated by cooling in the subtropics that mainly arises from energy transport to higher latitudes by transient baroclinic eddies that are stronger in the winter hemisphere. Effectively, the outgoing longwave radiation to space is distributed over middle and high latitudes and is not limited to the clear dry regions in the subtropics. Further, some of the radiative cooling in the subtropics is a consequence of the circulation. Hence the cooling by transient eddies in the subtropics is a fundamental driver of the observed Hadley circulation and realizes the seamless transport from Tropics to extratropics, while tropical sea surface temperatures over the oceans determine where the upward branch is located. The relatively clear skies in the subtropics further provide for ample absorption of solar radiation at the surface where it feeds strong evaporation, which exceeds precipitation, and supplies the equatorward flow of latent energy into the upward branch of the Hadley circulation as well as the poleward transports into midlatitude storm tracks. The evaporation is sufficiently strong that it is also compensated by a subsurface ocean heat transport that in turn is driven by the Hadley circulation surface winds.
Broad vertical layer-averaged temperatures from the microwave sounder unit (MSU) are used as a quasiindependent validation of temperature fields from the U.S. National Centers for Environmental Prediction-National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP-NCAR) and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) reanalyses. While the MSU and NCEP-NCAR temperatures show fairly good agreement overall, large discrepancies with ECMWF temperatures indicate that changes in the satellite observing system may have adversely affected the ECMWF reanalyses, especially in the Tropics. Two spurious discontinuities are present in tropical temperatures with jumps to warmer values throughout the Tropics below 500 mb in late 1986 and early 1989, and further spurious interannual variability is also present. These features are also reflected in the specific humidity fields. The temperature discrepancies have a complex vertical structure with height that is not fully understood, although it seems that the problems partly arise from positive reinforcement of biases in satellite radiances with those of the assimilating model first guess. Changes in the observing system provide a limit to the usefulness of the reanalyses in some climate studies.
SUMMARYThe primary driver of the climate system is the uneven distribution of incoming and outgoing radiation on earth. The incoming radiant energy is transformed into various forms (internal heat, potential energy, latent energy, and kinetic energy), moved around in various ways primarily by the atmosphere and oceans, stored and sequestered in the ocean, land, and ice components of the climate system, and ultimately radiated back to space as infrared radiation. The requirement for an equilibrium climate mandates a balance between the incoming and outgoing radiation, and further mandates that the flows of energy are systematic. These drive the weather systems in the atmosphere, currents in the ocean, and fundamentally determine the climate. Values are provided for the seasonal uptake and release of heat by the oceans that substantially moderate the climate in maritime regions. In the atmosphere, the poleward transports are brought about mainly by large-scale overturning, including the Hadley circulation in low latitudes, and baroclinic storms in the extratropics, but the seamless nature of the transports on about monthly time-scales indicates a fundamental link between the two rather different mechanisms. The flows of energy can be perturbed, causing climate change. This article provides an overview of the flows of energy, its transformations, transports, uptake, storage and release, and the processes involved. The focus is on the region 60 • N to 60 • S, and results are presented for the solstitial seasons and their differences to highlight the annual cycle. Challenges in better determining the surface heat balance and its changes with time are discussed.
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