Aim To apply mathematical models to the task of predicting extinction risk for species currently listed as 'Data Deficient' (DD) by the International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN). We demonstrate this approach by applying it globally to amphibians, the vertebrate group recognized as being most extinction threatened and having the largest proportion of DD species. We combine model predictions with current extinction risk knowledge to highlight regions of greatest disparity between known and predicted risk, where potential species extinctions may be overlooked.Methods Using global amphibian distribution data obtained from the IUCN and species trait data, we apply machine learning randomForest models to predict extinction risk of DD species from life history traits, environmental variables and habitat loss. These models are trained using data for species that have been assigned to an extinction risk category (other than DD) by the IUCN. We then combine predictions for DD species with IUCN assessment data in a GIS framework to highlight anomalies between current knowledge of amphibian extinction risk and our model predictions. Results We show that DD amphibian species are likely to be more threatened with extinction than their fully assessed counterparts. Regions in South America, central Africa and North Asia are particularly at risk due to lack of species knowledge and higher extinction risk than currently recognized.Main conclusions Application of predictive models ranking regions and species most in need of primary research allows prioritization of limited resources in an informed context, minimizing risk of unnoticed species' extinction.

Frogs of the genus Microhyla include some of the world’s smallest amphibians and represent the largest radiation of Asian microhylids, currently encompassing 50 species, distributed across the Oriental biogeographic region. The genus Microhyla remains one of the taxonomically most challenging groups of Asian frogs and was found to be paraphyletic with respect to large-sized fossorial Glyphoglossus. In this study we present a time-calibrated phylogeny for frogs in the genus Microhyla, and discuss taxonomy, historical biogeography, and morphological evolution of these frogs. Our updated phylogeny of the genus with nearly complete taxon sampling includes 48 nominal Microhyla species and several undescribed candidate species. Phylogenetic analyses of 3,207 bp of combined mtDNA and nuDNA data recovered three well-supported groups: the Glyphoglossus clade, Southeast Asian Microhyla II clade (includes M. annectens species group), and a diverse Microhyla I clade including all other species. Within the largest major clade of Microhyla are seven well-supported subclades that we identify as the M. achatina, M. fissipes, M. berdmorei, M. superciliaris, M. ornata, M. butleri, and M. palmipes species groups. The phylogenetic position of 12 poorly known Microhyla species is clarified for the first time. These phylogenetic results, along with molecular clock and ancestral area analyses, show the Microhyla—Glyphoglossus assemblage to have originated in Southeast Asia in the middle Eocene just after the first hypothesized land connections between the Indian Plate and the Asian mainland. While Glyphoglossus and Microhyla II remained within their ancestral ranges, Microhyla I expanded its distribution generally east to west, colonizing and diversifying through the Cenozoic. The Indian Subcontinent was colonized by members of five Microhyla species groups independently, starting with the end Oligocene—early Miocene that coincides with an onset of seasonally dry climates in South Asia. Body size evolution modeling suggests that four groups of Microhyla have independently achieved extreme miniaturization with adult body size below 15 mm. Three of the five smallest Microhyla species are obligate phytotelm-breeders and we argue that their peculiar reproductive biology may be a factor involved in miniaturization. Body size increases in Microhyla—Glyphoglossus seem to be associated with a burrowing adaptation to seasonally dry habitats. Species delimitation analyses suggest a vast underestimation of species richness and diversity in Microhyla and reveal 15–33 undescribed species. We revalidate M. nepenthicola, synonymize M. pulverata with M. marmorata, and provide insights on taxonomic statuses of a number of poorly known species. Further integrative studies, combining evidence from phylogeny, morphology, advertisement calls, and behavior will result in a better systematic understanding of this morphologically cryptic radiation of Asian frogs.

Urbanization transforms environments in ways that alter biological evolution. We examined whether urban environmental change drives parallel evolution by sampling 110,019 white clover plants from 6169 populations in 160 cities globally. Plants were assayed for a Mendelian antiherbivore defense that also affects tolerance to abiotic stressors. Urban-rural gradients were associated with the evolution of clines in defense in 47% of cities throughout the world. Variation in the strength of clines was explained by environmental changes in drought stress and vegetation cover that varied among cities. Sequencing 2074 genomes from 26 cities revealed that the evolution of urban-rural clines was best explained by adaptive evolution, but the degree of parallel adaptation varied among cities. Our results demonstrate that urbanization leads to adaptation at a global scale.

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Aim Amphibians exhibit two basic reproductive modes, terrestrial and aquatic, each with different ecophysiological constraints related to evaporative water loss. We hypothesize that these fundamental niche differences will generate strong geographical patterns at the global scale in response to spatial heterogeneity in temperature and water availability. Location Global. Time period Present. Major taxa studied Amphibians. Methods We used global distribution maps of 5,434 amphibian species, classified into terrestrial or aquatic breeders, to estimate the occurrence and proportion of terrestrial breeding species per 1° cell. We used multiple regression models to test the relative importance of seven abiotic variables: annual precipitation, annual mean temperature, annual mean relative air humidity, annual mean actual evapotranspiration, availability of lotic and lentic environments and slope. We used residuals autocovariate (RAC) generalized multiple regression models to control for spatial autocorrelation and a spatial vector based on amphibian phylogeny to account for phylogenetic dependencies among cells. Model generality was evaluated by contrasting results between 11 widely recognized world zoogeographical realms. Results Globally, the occurrence of terrestrial breeding species was better explained by temperature followed by total annual rainfall, relative air humidity and terrain slope. In contrast, the proportion of terrestrial breeders was better explained by terrain slope, followed by total rainfall, temperature and relative air humidity. Actual evapotranspiration and the extension of large lotic and lentic water bodies played a minor role. However, the relative importance and even the sign of the regression coefficients varied among realms, revealing different evolutionary pressures. Main conclusions Niche differences among terrestrial and aquatic breeding amphibian species are reflected in their distinct geographical distribution across the globe. Adequate conditions for terrestrial reproduction to evolve and thrive are reached in distinct ways in different realms. Temperature constraints and slope suggest that reproductive modes will be impacted differently by climate change.