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Context Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is prevalent in older individuals, but the risk implications of low estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and high albuminuria across the full age range are controversial. Objective To evaluate possible effect modification (interaction) of age on the association of estimated GFR and albuminuria with clinical risk examining both relative and absolute risk. Design, Setting, Participants We investigated 2,051,244 participants from 33 general population or high-risk (of vascular disease) cohorts and 13 CKD cohorts from Asia, Australesia, Europe, and North/South America conducted during 1972–2011 with mean follow-up time of 5.8 years (range 0–31 years). Main Outcome Measures Hazard ratios (HRs) of mortality and end-stage renal disease (ESRD) according to eGFR and albuminuria were meta-analyzed across age categories after adjusting for sex, race, cardiovascular disease, diabetes, systolic blood pressure, cholestserol, body mass index, and smoking. Absolute risks were estimated using HRs and average incidence rates. Results Mortality (112,325 deaths) and ESRD (8,411 events) risk were higher at lower eGFR and higher albuminuria in every age category. In general/high-risk cohorts, relative mortality risk for reduced eGFR decreased with increasing age: e.g., adjusted HRs (95% CI) at eGFR 45 vs. 80 ml/min/1.73m2 were 3.50 (2.55–4.81), 2.21 (2.02–2.41), 1.59 (1.42–1.77), and 1.35 (1.23–1.48) in age categories 18–54, 55–64, 65–74 and 75+ years, respectively (P-values for age interaction <0.05). Absolute risk differences for the same comparisons were higher at older age (9.0 [95% CI, 6.0–12.8], 12.2 [10.3–14.3], 13.3 [9.0–18.6], and 27.2 [13.5–45.5] excess deaths per 1,000 person-years, respectively). For increased albuminuria, reduction of relative risk with increasing age were less evident, while differences in absolute risk were higher in the older age categories (7.5 [95% CI, 4.3–11.9], 12.2 [7.9–17.6], 22.7 [15.3–31.6], and 34.3 [19.5–52.4] excess deaths per 1,000 person-years, respectively by age category, at ACR 300 mg/g compared to 10 mg/g). In CKD cohorts, adjusted relative hazards of mortality did not decrease with age. In all cohorts, ESRD relative risks and absolute risk differences at lower eGFR or higher albuminuria were comparable across age categories. Conclusions Both low eGFR and high albuminuria were independently associated with mortality and ESRD regardless of age across a wide range of populations. Mortality showed lower relative risk but higher absolute risks differences at older age.

EART FAILURE IS A CONDItion with an adverse prognosis; 1-year mortality rates in population-based studies have been reported to be 35% to 40%. 1-5 Important prognostic factors have been identified among clinical trial enrollees. However, factors that predict mortality in the community setting may differ. 6 Although heart failure is a common, serious condition treated by both generalist and specialist physicians, few methods exist to help quantatitively estimate prognosis. As a result, clinicians must rely on published mortality rates from clinical trials or other studies, in which patient populations may differ from those encountered in clinical practice. Knowledge of mortality predictors can be used to generate predictive models that can aid clinicians' decision making, in particular by identifying patients who are at high or low risk of death. 7-11 Such risk-assessment methods have been developed for acute myocardial infarction but not for heart failure. 7,12,13 Risk prediction models may be used in patient counseling to initiate the discussion about end-of-life issues and also may be used for quality-of-care out

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This paper describes how to estimate probabilities and outcome values for decision trees. Probabilities are usually derived from published studies, but occasionally are derived from existing databases, primary data collection, or expert judgment. Outcome values represent quantitative estimates of the desirability of the outcome states, and are often expressed as utility values between 0 and 1. Utility values for different health states can be derived from the published literature, from direct measurement in appropriate subjects, or from expert opinion. Methods for assigning utilities to complex outcome states are described, and the concept of quality-adjusted life years is introduced.

Background The risk of death in dialysis patients remains high, but varies significantly among patients. No prediction tool is widely used in current clinical practice. We aimed to predict long-term mortality in incident dialysis patients with easily obtainable variables. Study Design Prospective nationwide multicenter cohort study in the United Kingdom (UK Renal Registry); Models were developed using Cox proportional hazards. Setting and Participants Patients initiating hemodialysis or peritoneal dialysis between 2002 and 2004, who survived at least three months on dialysis treatment, were followed for three years. Analyses were restricted to subjects in whom information on comorbid conditions and laboratory measurements were available (n=5447). The dataset was divided into datasets for model development (n=3631, training) and validation (n=1816) by random selection. Predictors Basic patient characteristics, comorbidity and laboratory variables. Outcomes All cause mortality censored for kidney transplant, recovery of kidney function, and loss to follow-up. Results In the training dataset, 1078 patients (29.7%) died within the observation period. The final model of the training dataset included patient characteristics (age, race, primary kidney disease, treatment modality), comorbidities (diabetes, history of cardiovascular disease, smoking) and laboratory variables (hemoglobin, serum albumin, creatinine, calcium) and reached a C-statistic of 0.75 (95% CI, 0.73–0.77) and could accurately discriminate between patients with low (6%), intermediate (19%), high (33%) and very high (59%) mortality risk. The model was further applied to the validation dataset and achieved a C-statistic of 0.73 (95% CI, 0.71–0.76). Limitations Number of missing comorbidity data and lack of an external validation dataset. Conclusions Basic patient characteristics, comorbidity and laboratory variables can predict three-year mortality in incident dialysis patients with sufficient accuracy. Identification of subgroups of patients according to mortality risk can guide future research and subsequently target treatment decisions in individual patients.

Initiation of PD results in early improvement of hypertension in end-stage renal disease (ESRD). BP control thereafter deteriorates steadily with time and this is associated with age, duration of hypertension, and declining residual renal function. This suggests that hypertension in ESRD patients is a progressive disease primarily related to falling glomerular filtration rate, the preservation of which might improve BP control and possibly modify cardiovascular risk.