Aims The aim of this study was to develop, validate, and illustrate an updated prediction model (SCORE2) to estimate 10-year fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk in individuals without previous CVD or diabetes aged 40–69 years in Europe. Methods and results  We derived risk prediction models using individual-participant data from 45 cohorts in 13 countries (677 684 individuals, 30 121 CVD events). We used sex-specific and competing risk-adjusted models, including age, smoking status, systolic blood pressure, and total- and HDL-cholesterol. We defined four risk regions in Europe according to country-specific CVD mortality, recalibrating models to each region using expected incidences and risk factor distributions. Region-specific incidence was estimated using CVD mortality and incidence data on 10 776 466 individuals. For external validation, we analysed data from 25 additional cohorts in 15 European countries (1 133 181 individuals, 43 492 CVD events). After applying the derived risk prediction models to external validation cohorts, C-indices ranged from 0.67 (0.65–0.68) to 0.81 (0.76–0.86). Predicted CVD risk varied several-fold across European regions. For example, the estimated 10-year CVD risk for a 50-year-old smoker, with a systolic blood pressure of 140 mmHg, total cholesterol of 5.5 mmol/L, and HDL-cholesterol of 1.3 mmol/L, ranged from 5.9% for men in low-risk countries to 14.0% for men in very high-risk countries, and from 4.2% for women in low-risk countries to 13.7% for women in very high-risk countries. Conclusion  SCORE2—a new algorithm derived, calibrated, and validated to predict 10-year risk of first-onset CVD in European populations—enhances the identification of individuals at higher risk of developing CVD across Europe.

Purpose The LipidCardio Study was established for in-depth analyses of cardiovascular risk factors, providing well-defined cardiovascular and metabolic phenotypes. Particularly the role of lipoproteins in the pathobiological process and treatment of cardiovascular disease will be a main focus.Participants 1.005 individuals aged 21 years and older undergoing cardiac catheterization during 17 months at a tertiary academic cardiology center were enrolled. The baseline data set contains detailed phenotyping, broad biochemical parameters, genetic data, but also standardized personal and family history, a screening test for cognitive impairment, pulse wave analysis and measurements of hand grip strength, amongst others. Blood samples were stored in a biobank for future analyses.Findings to date The mean age of the participants at enrolment was 70.9±11.1 years (70% male). Coronary angiography provided evidence of obstructive coronary artery disease (CAD) in 69.9% of participants. Those with evidence of CAD were significantly more likely to be male, inactive, diabetic and with a family history of cardiovascular disease than participants without CAD.20% of patients had lipoprotein(a) [Lp(a)] concentrations above 106.9 nmol/L (fifth quintile). These patients had significantly increased odds of obstructive CAD compared to participants in quintiles 1-4 (OR 1.70, 95% CI 1.17 to 2.48, p=0.005). There was reasonable evidence that with increasing severity of CAD the odds of having elevated Lp(a) increased. We were able to replicate the established strong association between specified single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in the LPA gene (rs10455872, rs3798220 and rs186696265) and the APOE gene (rs7412), and the concentration of Lp(a), validating our phenotype database and biobank.Future plans Mortality information will be obtained in two-year intervals. Follow-up phone interviews will be conducted at 3, and 6 years after enrolment. We seek to cooperate with other researchers in the field, e.g. by sharing data and biobank samples.Registration: not applicable, purely observational study

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Aims Mosaic loss of Y chromosome (LOY) in blood cells is the most common acquired mutation, increases with age, and is related to cardiovascular disease. Loss of Y chromosome induces cardiac fibrosis in murine experiments mimicking the consequences of aortic valve stenosis, the prototypical age-related disease. Cardiac fibrosis is the major determinant of mortality even after transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR). It was hypothesized that LOY affects long-term outcome in men undergoing TAVR. Methods and results Using digital PCR in DNA of peripheral blood cells, LOY (Y/X ratio) was assessed by targeting a 6 bp sequence difference between AMELX and AMELY genes using TaqMan. The genetic signature of monocytes lacking the Y chromosome was deciphered by scRNAseq. In 362 men with advanced aortic valve stenosis undergoing successful TAVR, LOY ranged from −4% to 83.4%, and was >10% in 48% of patients. Three-year mortality increased with LOY. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis revealed an optimal cut-off of LOY >17% to predict mortality. In multivariate analysis, LOY remained a significant (P < 0.001) independent predictor of death during follow-up. scRNAseq disclosed a pro-fibrotic gene signature with LOY monocytes displaying increased expression of transforming growth factor (TGF) β-associated signaling, while expression of TGFβ-inhibiting pathways was down-regulated. Conclusion This is the first study to demonstrate that LOY in blood cells is associated with profoundly impaired long-term survival even after successful TAVR. Mechanistically, the pro-fibrotic gene signature sensitizing the patient-derived circulating LOY monocytes for the TGFβ signaling pathways supports a prominent role of cardiac fibrosis in contributing to the effects of LOY observed in men undergoing TAVR.