No abstract

The apparent failure of ecosystems to recover from increasingly widespread disturbance is a global concern. Despite growing focus on factors inhibiting resilience and restoration, we still know very little about how demographic and population processes influence recovery. Using inverse and forward demographic modelling of 531 post‐fire sagebrush populations across the western US, we show that demographic processes during recovery from seeds do not initially lead to population growth but rather to years of population decline, low density, and risk of extirpation after disturbance and restoration, even at sites with potential to support long‐term, stable populations. Changes in population structure, and resulting transient population dynamics, lead to a > 50% decline in population growth rate after disturbance and significant reductions in population density. Our results indicate that demographic processes influence the recovery of ecosystems from disturbance and that demographic analyses can be used by resource managers to anticipate ecological transformation risk.

[1] Stomatal conductance (g s ) models are widely used at a variety of scales to predict fluxes of mass and energy between vegetation and the atmosphere. Several g s models contain a parameter that specifies the minimum g s estimate (g 0 ). Sensitivity analyses with a canopy flux model (MAESTRA) identified g 0 to have the greatest influence on transpiration estimates (seasonal mean of 40%). A spatial analysis revealed the influence of g 0 to vary (30-80%) with the amount of light absorbed by the foliage and to increase in importance as absorbed light decreased. The parameter g 0 is typically estimated by extrapolating the linear regression fit between observed g s and net photosynthesis (A n ). However, our measurements demonstrate that the g s -A n relationship may become nonlinear at low light levels and thus, extrapolating values from data collected over a range of light conditions resulted in an underestimation of g 0 in Malus domestica when compared to measured values (20.4 vs 49.7 mmol m À2 s À1 respectively). In addition, extrapolation resulted in negative g 0 values for three other woody species. We assert that g 0 can be measured directly with diffusion porometers (as g s when A n ≤ 0), reducing both the time required to characterize g 0 and the potential error from statistical approximation. Incorporating measured g 0 into MAESTRA significantly improved transpiration predictions versus extrapolated values (6% overestimation versus 45% underestimation respectively), demonstrating the benefit in g s models. Diffusion porometer measurements offer a viable means to quantify the g 0 parameter, circumventing errors associated with linear extrapolation of the g s -A n relationship.

In the Pacific north-west, the Cascade Mountain Range blocks much of the precipitation and maritime influence of the Pacific Ocean, resulting in distinct climates east and west of the mountains. The current study aimed to investigate relationships between water storage and transport properties in populations of Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii) and ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) adapted to both climates. Sapwood thickness, capacitance, vulnerability to embolism, and axial and radial conductivity were measured on samples collected from trunks of mature trees. The sapwood of ponderosa pine was three to four times thicker than Douglas-fir. Radial conductivity was higher in west-side populations of both species, but axial conductivity was higher in the east-side populations and in Douglas-fir. Eastern populations of both species had sapwood that was more vulnerable to embolism than west-side populations. Sapwood capacitance was similar between species, but was about twice as great in east-side populations (580 kg m -3 MPa -1 ) as in west-side populations (274 kg m -3 MPa -1 ). Capacitance was positively correlated with both mean embolism pressure and axial conductivity across species and populations, suggesting that coordinated adjustments in xylem efficiency, safety and water storage capacity may serve to avoid embolism along a gradient of increasing aridity.

Previous work demonstrates conflicting evidence regarding the influence of snowmelt timing on forest net ecosystem exchange (NEE). Based on 15 years of eddy covariance measurements in Colorado, years with earlier snowmelt exhibited less net carbon uptake during the snow ablation period, which is a period of high potential for productivity. Earlier snowmelt aligned with colder periods of the seasonal air temperature cycle relative to later snowmelt. We found that the colder ablation‐period air temperatures during these early snowmelt years lead to reduced rates of daily NEE. Hence, earlier snowmelt associated with climate warming, counterintuitively, leads to colder atmospheric temperatures during the snow ablation period and concomitantly reduced rates of net carbon uptake. Using a multilinear‐regression (R2 = 0.79, P < 0.001) relating snow ablation period mean air temperature and peak snow water equivalent (SWE) to ablation‐period NEE, we predict that earlier snowmelt and decreased SWE may cause a 45% reduction in midcentury ablation‐period net carbon uptake.

No abstract

Ecological droughts are deficits in soil-water availability that induce threshold-like ecosystem responses, such as causing altered or degraded plant-community conditions, which can be exceedingly difficult to reverse. However, 'ecological drought' can be difficult to define, let alone to quantify, especially at spatial and temporal scales relevant to land managers. This is despite a growing need to integrate drought-related factors into management decisions as climate changes result in precipitation instability in many semi-arid ecosystems. We asked whether success in restoration seedings of the foundational species big sagebrush (Artemisia tridentata) was related to estimated water deficit, using the SoilWat2 model and data from >600 plots located in previously burned areas in the western United States. Water deficit was characterized by: (1) the standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index (SPEI), a coarse-scale drought index, and (2) the number of days with wet and warm conditions in the near-surface soil, where seeds and seedlings germinate and emerge (i.e. days with 0-5 cm deep soil water potential >−2.5 MPa and temperature above 0°C). SPEI, a widely used drought index, was not predictive of whether sagebrush had reestablished. In contrast, wet-warm days elicited a critical drought threshold response, with successfully reestablished sites having experienced seven more wet-warm days than unsuccessful sites during the first March following summer wildfire and restoration. Thus, seemingly small-scale and short-term changes in water availability and temperature can contribute to major ecosystem shifts, as many of these sites remained shrubless two decades later. These findings help clarify the definition of ecological drought for a foundational species and its imperiled semi-arid ecosystem. Drought is well known to affect the occurrence of wildfires, but drought in the year(s) after fire can determine whether fire causes long-lasting, negative impacts on ecosystems.

Larger and more frequent disturbances are motivating efforts to accelerate recovery of foundational perennial species by focusing efforts into establishing island patches to sustain keystone species and facilitate recovery of the surrounding plant community. Evaluating the variability in abiotic and biotic factors that contribute to differences in survival and establishment can provide useful insight into the relative importance of these factors. In the western United States, severe degradation of the sagebrush steppe has motivated substantial efforts to restore native perennial cover, but success has been mixed. In this study, we evaluated survival of more than 3,000 sagebrush seedlings transplanted on 12 patches totaling 650 ha within a 113,000 ha burn area, and related the survival to organismal and subtaxonomic traits, and to landscape variables. Big sagebrush has high intraspecific diversity attributed to subspecies and cytotypes identifiable through ultraviolet (UV)‐induced fluorescence, length:width of leaves, or genome size (ploidy). Of these organismal traits, survival was related only to UV fluorescence, and then only so when landscape variables were excluded from analyses. The most significant landscape variable affecting survival was soil taxonomic subgroup, with much lower survival where buried restrictive layers reduce deep water infiltration. Survival also decreased with greater slope steepness, exotic annual grass cover, and burn severity. Survival was optimal where perennial bunchgrasses comprised 8–14% of total cover. These soil, topographic, and community condition factors revealed through monitoring of landscape‐level treatments can be used to explain the success of plantings and to strategically plan future restoration projects.