This paper introduces a generic framework for multi-risk modelling developed in the project 'Regional RiskScape' by the Research Organizations GNS Science and the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research Ltd. (NIWA) in New Zealand. Our goal was to develop a generic technology for modelling risks from different natural hazards and for various elements at risk. The technical framework is not dependent on the specific nature of the individual hazard nor the vulnerability and the type of the individual assets. Based on this generic framework, a software prototype has been developed, which is capable of 'plugging in' various natural hazards and assets without reconfiguring or adapting the generic software framework. To achieve that, we developed a set of standards for treating the fundamental components of a risk model: hazards, assets (elements at risk) and vulnerability models (or fragility functions). Thus, the developed prototype system is able to accommodate any hazard, asset or fragility model, which is provided to the system according to that standard. The software prototype was tested by modelling earthquake, volcanic ashfall, flood, wind, and tsunami risks for several urban centres and small communities in New Zealand.
The Canterbury earthquake sequence triggered thousands of rockfalls in the Port Hills of Christchurch, New Zealand, with over 6,000 falling on 22 February 2011. Several hundred families were evacuated after about 200 homes were hit. We characterized the rockfalls by boulder-size distribution, runout distance, source-area dimensions, and boulder-production rates over a range of triggering peak ground accelerations. Using these characteristics, a time-varying seismic hazard model for Canterbury, and estimates of residential occupancy rates and resident vulnerability, we estimated annual individual fatality risk from rockfall in the Port Hills. The results demonstrate the Port Hills rockfall risk is time-variable, decreasing as the seismic hazard decreases following the main earthquakes in February and June 2011. This presents a real challenge for formulating robust land-use and reconstruction policy in the Port Hills.
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