Atmospheric carbon dioxide records indicate that the land surface has acted as a strong global carbon sink over recent decades1, 2, with a substantial fraction of this sink probably located in the tropics3, particularly in the Amazon4. Nevertheless, it is unclear how the terrestrial carbon sink will evolve as climate and atmospheric composition continue to change. Here we analyse the historical evolution of the biomass dynamics of the Amazon rainforest over three decades using a distributed network of 321 plots. While this analysis confirms that Amazon forests have acted as a long-term net biomass sink, we find a long-term decreasing trend of carbon accumulation. Rates of net increase in above-ground biomass declined by one-third during the past decade compared to the 1990s. This is a consequence of growth rate increases levelling off recently, while biomass mortality persistently increased throughout, leading to a shortening of carbon residence times. Potential drivers for the mortality increase include greater climate variability, and feedbacks of faster growth on mortality, resulting in shortened tree longevity5. The observed decline of the Amazon sink diverges markedly from the recent increase in terrestrial carbon uptake at the global scale1, 2, and is contrary to expectations based on models. (Résumé d'auteur

We examine the evidence for the possibility that 21st-century climate change may cause a large-scale ''dieback'' or degradation of Amazonian rainforest. We employ a new framework for evaluating the rainfall regime of tropical forests and from this deduce precipitation-based boundaries for current forest viability. We then examine climate simulations by 19 global climate models (GCMs) in this context and find that most tend to underestimate current rainfall. GCMs also vary greatly in their projections of future climate change in Amazonia. We attempt to take into account the differences between GCM-simulated and observed rainfall regimes in the 20th century. Our analysis suggests that dry-season water stress is likely to increase in E. Amazonia over the 21st century, but the region tends toward a climate more appropriate to seasonal forest than to savanna. These seasonal forests may be resilient to seasonal drought but are likely to face intensified water stress caused by higher temperatures and to be vulnerable to fires, which are at present naturally rare in much of Amazonia. The spread of fire ignition associated with advancing deforestation, logging, and fragmentation may act as nucleation points that trigger the transition of these seasonal forests into fire-dominated, low biomass forests. Conversely, deliberate limitation of deforestation and fire may be an effective intervention to maintain Amazonian forest resilience in the face of imposed 21st-century climate change. Such intervention may be enough to navigate E. Amazonia away from a possible ''tipping point,'' beyond which extensive rainforest would become unsustainable.carbon dioxide ͉ drought ͉ fire ͉ tropical forests ͉ adaptation

17Drought threatens tropical rainforests over seasonal to decadal timescales [1][2][3][4] , but the drivers 18 of tree mortality following drought remain poorly understood 5,6 . It has been suggested that 19 reduced availability of non-structural carbohydrates (NSC) critically increases mortality risk 20 through insufficient carbon supply to metabolism ('carbon starvation') 7,8 . However little is 21 known about how NSC stores are affected by drought, especially over the long term, and 22 whether they are more important than hydraulic processes in determining drought-induced 23 mortality. Using data from the world's longest-running experimental drought study in tropical 24 rainforest (in the Brazilian Amazon), we test whether carbon starvation or deterioration of the 25 water-conducting pathways from soil to leaf trigger tree mortality. Biomass loss from 26 mortality in the experimentally-droughted forest increased substantially after >10 years of 27 reduced soil moisture availability. The mortality signal was dominated by the death of large 28 trees, which were at a much greater risk of hydraulic deterioration than smaller trees. 29However, we find no evidence that the droughted trees suffered carbon starvation, as their 30 NSC concentrations were similar to those of un-droughted trees, and growth rates did not 31 decline in either living or dying individuals. Our results indicate that hydraulics, rather than 32 carbon starvation, triggers tree death from drought in tropical rainforest. 34Drought-response observations from both field-scale experiments and natural droughts have 35 demonstrated increased mortality over the short-term (1-3 years), with notably higher 36 vulnerability for some taxa, and for larger trees 6,9,10 . After several years of drought, 37 recovering growth rates in smaller trees, dbh (diameter at breast height) <40 cm, and reduced 38 mortality have been recorded at different locations 6,11,12 . However, the long-term (>10 yr) 39 sensitivity of tropical forests to predicted prolonged and repeated water deficit [1][2][3] we synthesise these data to test whether long-term soil moisture deficit alters NSC storage 64 and use in tropical rainforest trees, and if this, or hydraulic processes, are most strongly 65 associated with increased mortality rates. 66By 2014, following 13 years of the TFE treatment, cumulative biomass loss through mortality 67 was 41.0±2.7% relative to pre-treatment values (Fig. 1a), and the rate of loss had increased 68 substantially since the previous reported value of 17.2±0.8%, after 7 years of TFE 6 . 69Accelerating biomass loss and failure to recover substantially, or to reach a new 70 equilibrium 13 , has led to a committed flux to the atmosphere from decomposing necromass of 71 101.9±19.1 Mg C ha -1 (Fig. 1a). This biomass loss has been driven by elevated mortality in 72 the largest trees (Fig. 1b), as previously observed over shorter timescales 6 , and has created a 73 canopy that has had a persistently lower average leaf area index during 2010-2014 74 (12.0±1...

Summary• The rich ecology of tropical forests is intimately tied to their moisture status. Multi-site syntheses can provide a macro-scale view of these linkages and their susceptibility to changing climates. Here, we report pan-tropical and regional-scale analyses of tree vulnerability to drought.• We assembled available data on tropical forest tree stem mortality before, during, and after recent drought events, from 119 monitoring plots in 10 countries concentrated in Amazonia and Borneo.• In most sites, larger trees are disproportionately at risk. At least within Amazonia, low wood density trees are also at greater risk of drought-associated mortality, independent of size. For comparable drought intensities, trees in Borneo are more vulnerable than trees in the Amazon. There is some evidence for lagged impacts of drought, with mortality rates remaining elevated 2 yr after the meteorological event is over.• These findings indicate that repeated droughts would shift the functional composition of tropical forests toward smaller, denser-wooded trees. At very high drought intensities, the linear relationship between tree mortality and moisture stress apparently breaks down, suggesting the existence of moisture stress thresholds beyond which some tropical forests would suffer catastrophic tree mortality.

Nontechnical AbstractT E the climate system. These forests are experiencing escalating human influence, altering their health and the provision of important ecosystem functions and services.

Summary At least one climate model predicts severe reductions of rainfall over Amazonia during this century. Long‐term throughfall exclusion (TFE) experiments represent the best available means to investigate the resilience of the Amazon rainforest to such droughts. Results are presented from a 7 yr TFE study at Caxiuanã National Forest, eastern Amazonia. We focus on the impacts of the drought on tree mortality, wood production and above‐ground biomass. Tree mortality in the TFE plot over the experimental period was 2.5% yr−1, compared with 1.25% yr−1 in a nearby control plot experiencing normal rainfall. Differences in stem mortality between plots were greatest in the largest (> 40 cm diameter at breast height (dbh)) size class (4.1% yr−1 in the TFE and 1.4% yr−1 in the control). Wood production in the TFE plot was c. 30% lower than in the control plot. Together, these changes resulted in a loss of 37.8 ± 2.0 Mg carbon (C) ha−1 in the TFE plot (2002–2008), compared with no change in the control. These results are remarkably consistent with those from another TFE (at Tapajós National Forest), suggesting that eastern Amazonian forests may respond to prolonged drought in a predictable manner.

The allocation of the net primary productivity (NPP) of an ecosystem between canopy, woody tissue and fine roots is an important descriptor of the functioning of that ecosystem, and an important feature to correctly represent in terrestrial ecosystem models. Here, we collate and analyse a global dataset of NPP allocation in tropical forests, and compare this with the representation of NPP allocation in 13 terrestrial ecosystem models. On average, the data suggest an equal partitioning of allocation between all three main components (mean 34 + 6% canopy, 39 + 10% wood, 27 + 11% fine roots), but there is substantial site-to-site variation in allocation to woody tissue versus allocation to fine roots. Allocation to canopy (leaves, flowers and fruit) shows much less variance. The mean allocation of the ecosystem models is close to the mean of the data, but the spread is much greater, with several models reporting allocation partitioning outside of the spread of the data. Where all main components of NPP cannot be measured, litterfall is a good predictor of overall NPP (r 2 ¼ 0.83 for linear fit forced through origin), stem growth is a moderate predictor and fine root production a poor predictor. Across sites the major component of variation of allocation is a shifting allocation between wood and fine roots, with allocation to the canopy being a relatively invariant component of total NPP. This suggests the dominant allocation trade-off is a 'fine root versus wood' trade-off, as opposed to the expected 'root-shoot' trade-off; such a trade-off has recently been posited on theoretical grounds for old-growth forest stands. We conclude by discussing the systematic biases in estimates of allocation introduced by missing NPP components, including herbivory, large leaf litter and root exudates production. These biases have a moderate effect on overall carbon allocation estimates, but are smaller than the observed range in allocation values across sites.

Summary Tree mortality rates appear to be increasing in moist tropical forests (MTFs) with significant carbon cycle consequences. Here, we review the state of knowledge regarding MTF tree mortality, create a conceptual framework with testable hypotheses regarding the drivers, mechanisms and interactions that may underlie increasing MTF mortality rates, and identify the next steps for improved understanding and reduced prediction. Increasing mortality rates are associated with rising temperature and vapor pressure deficit, liana abundance, drought, wind events, fire and, possibly, CO2 fertilization‐induced increases in stand thinning or acceleration of trees reaching larger, more vulnerable heights. The majority of these mortality drivers may kill trees in part through carbon starvation and hydraulic failure. The relative importance of each driver is unknown. High species diversity may buffer MTFs against large‐scale mortality events, but recent and expected trends in mortality drivers give reason for concern regarding increasing mortality within MTFs. Models of tropical tree mortality are advancing the representation of hydraulics, carbon and demography, but require more empirical knowledge regarding the most common drivers and their subsequent mechanisms. We outline critical datasets and model developments required to test hypotheses regarding the underlying causes of increasing MTF mortality rates, and improve prediction of future mortality under climate change.