Annual burned area has increased in California over the past three decades as a result of rising temperatures and a greater atmospheric demand for moisture, a trend that is projected to continue throughout the 21st century as a result of climate change. Here, we implement a bias-correction and statistical downscaling technique to obtain high resolution, daily meteorological conditions for input into two fire weather indices: vapor pressure deficit (VPD) and the Canadian Fire Weather Index System (FWI). We focus our analysis on 10 ecoregions that together account for the diverse range of climates, ecosystems, topographies, and vegetation types found across the state of California. Our results provide evidence that fire weather conditions will become more extreme and extend into the spring and fall seasons in most areas of California by 2100, extending the amount of time vegetation is exposed to increased atmospheric demand for moisture, and heightening the overall risk for the ignition and spread of large wildfire. The ecoregion-level spatial scale adopted for this study increases the spatial specificity of fire weather information, as well as the resolution with which fire and land managers can implement strategies and counter-measures when addressing issues related to climate change.
The study introduces a new atmosphere-land-aquifer coupled model and evaluates terrestrial water storage (TWS) simulations for Southern California between 2007 and 2016. It also examines the relationship between precipitation, groundwater, and soil moisture anomalies for the two primary aquifer systems in the study area, namely the Coastal Basin and the Basin and Range aquifers. Two model designs are introduced, a partially-coupled model forced by reanalysis atmospheric data, and a fully-coupled model, in which the atmospheric conditions were simulated. Both models simulate the temporal variability of TWS anomaly in the study area well (R2 ≥ 0.87, P < 0.01). In general, the partially-coupled model outperformed the fully-coupled model as the latter overestimated precipitation, which compromised soil and aquifer recharge and discharge. Simulations also showed that the drought experienced in the area between 2012 and 2016 caused a decline in TWS, evapotranspiration, and runoff of approximately 24%, 65%, and 11%, and 20%, 72% and 8% over the two aquifer systems, respectively. Results indicate that the models first introduced in this study can be a useful tool to further our understanding of terrestrial water storage variability at regional scales.
Wildfire burn severity has important implications for postfire vegetation recovery and boundary-layer climate. We used a collection of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) datasets to investigate the impact of burn severity (relative differenced Normalized Burn Ratio, RdNBR) on vegetation recovery (Enhanced Vegetation Index, EVI), albedo change, and land surface temperature in seven California ecoregions, including: Southern California Mountains (SCM), Southern California Coast (SCC), Central California Foothills (CCF), Klamath (K), Cascades (C), Eastern Cascades (EC), and Sierra Nevada (SN). A statewide MODIS-derived RdNBR dataset was used to analyze the impact of burn severity on the five-year postfire early-summer averages of each biophysical variable between the years 2003–2020. We found that prefire EVI values were largest, and prefire albedo and temperature were lowest in the K, C, EC, and SN ecoregions. Furthermore, the largest changes between prefire and first-year postfire biophysical response tended to occur in the moderate and high burn severity classes across all ecoregions. First-year postfire albedo decreased in the K, C, EC, and SN but increased in the SCM, SCC, and CCF ecoregions. The greatest decreases, but most rapid recovery, of EVI occurred after high severity fires in all ecoregions. After five-years post-fire, EVI and land surface temperature did not return to prefire levels in any burn severity class in any ecoregion.
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