Alternative futures analysis can inform community decisions regarding land and water use. We conducted an alternative futures analysis in the Willamette River Basin in western Oregon. Based on detailed input from local stakeholders, three alternative future landscapes for the year 2050 were created and compared to present‐day (circa 1990) and historical (pre‐EuroAmerican settlement) landscapes. We evaluated the likely effects of these landscape changes on four endpoints: water availability, Willamette River, stream condition, and terrestrial wildlife. All three futures assume a doubling of the 1990 human population by 2050. The Plan Trend 2050 scenario assumes current policies and trends continue. Because Oregon has several conservation‐oriented policies in place, landscape changes and projected environmental effects associated with this scenario were surprisingly small (most ≤10% change relative to 1990). The scenario did, however, engender a debate among stakeholders about the reasonableness of assuming that existing policies would be implemented exactly as written if no further policy actions were taken. The Development 2050 scenario reflects a loosening of current policies, more market‐oriented approach, as proposed by some stakeholders. Estimated effects of this scenario include loss of 24% of prime farmland; 39% more wildlife species would lose habitat than gain habitat relative to the 1990 landscape. Projected effects on aquatic biota were less severe, primarily because many of the land use changes involved conversion of agricultural lands into urban or rural development, both of which adversely impact streams. Finally, Conservation 2050 assumes that ecosystem protection and restoration are given higher priority, although still within the bounds of what stakeholders considered plausible. In response, most ecological indicators (both terrestrial and aquatic) recovered 20–70% of the losses sustained since EuroAmerican settlement. The one exception is water availability. Water consumed for out‐of‐stream uses increased under all three future scenarios (by 40–60%), with accompanying decreases in stream flow. Although the conservation measures incorporated into Conservation 2050 moderated the increase in consumption, they were not sufficient to reverse the trend. Results from these analyses have been actively discussed by stakeholder groups charged with developing a vision for the basin's future and a basin‐wide restoration strategy.
Our research investigated the impact on surface water resources of three different scenarios for the future development of the Willamette River Basin in Oregon (USA). Water rights in the basin, and in the western United States in general, are based on a system of law that binds together all water rights in a basin in a potentially complex web of interactions. We therefore analyzed the scenarios using a basin-wide approach, in which we simulated the allocation of surface water across all water rights in the entire basin. Our analysis focused on two particular issues: the impact of increased urban demand for water; and protecting ecological values through an existing program to conserve water and devote the savings to in-stream water rights. The latter represented what key stakeholders in the basin felt was the greatest environmental protection that was politically feasible. The results of our simulations were inconsistent with all of our expectations. We found that the web of interactions was not extensive, and that a basin-wide approach wasn't warranted. Increased urban demands had little impact on water allocation, but even an extensive application of the existing water conservation program was not sufficient to protect ecological values. As a result, we believe that protecting ecological values in the future will require sacrifices from more than water rights themselves, and involving society as a whole, in terms of not only the resources devoted to protecting the environment, but also the political will to make difficult changes.
The aims of this article are twofold. First, from a historical perspective, it examines the recipient-to-donor transition of five Asian aid donors, namely Japan, Korea, China, India, and Thailand. Specifically, it examines the evolution of their foreign aid programs and practices. Second, it analyzes the effects of Asian aid donors on the international aid regime. We argue that the mix of economic and security goals, which motivated Asian donors to develop their initial economic cooperation programs, have persisted over time. This explains why Asian aid donors have allotted a disproportionate share of their assistance to neighboring countries and their use of foreign aid as a key tool of their commercial and diplomatic policies. Moreover, we contend that the rise and experience of Asian aid donors have created a new dynamic to donor–recipient partnerships and development cooperation like new approaches and modalities. Key findings of this study add to the growing literature on emerging donors and aid effectiveness debate.
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