Electronic copy available at: http://ssrn.com/abstract=2222041 An Econometric Analysis of the Demand Surge Effect AbstractIn case of a natural catastrophe there is an increased demand for skilled labor and materials which in turn leads to significant price increases that should be taken into account in the forecast of catastrophe losses. Such price effects are referred to as "Demand Surge" effects. The paper at hand presents an extensive econometric analysis and modeling of the Demand Surge effect. We find that Demand Surge is positively influenced by the total amount of repair work, by alternative catastrophes in the same region in close temporal proximity, and by a higher amount of insurance claims per event. Furthermore, the Demand Surge effect is more pronounced if the construction sector is in a growth stage. In contrast, a higher capacity of the construction sector has a restraining effect on Demand Surge. In addition, if we restrict the data to very severe catastrophes, we observe a saturation effect according to which a wage increase for building services before a catastrophe reduces the Demand Surge effect.
Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen:Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden.Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen.Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. In the aftermath of a natural catastrophe, there is increased demand for skilled reconstruction labor, which leads to significant increases in reconstruction labor wages and hence insured losses. Such inflation effects are known as "Demand Surge" effects. It is important for insurance companies to properly account for these effects when calculating insurance premiums and determining economic capital. We propose an approach to quantifying the Demand Surge effect and present an econometric model for the effect that is based on 191 catastrophe events in the United States. Our model explains more than 75% of the variance of the Demand Surge effect and is thus able to identify the key drivers of the phenomenon. Terms of use: Documents inJEL classification: G22, J23, J31, Q54, R23
Les émissions de gaz à effet de serre ne coûtent rien à leurs émetteurs, le changement climatique est donc un bel exemple d'externalité : dans leurs choix individuels, les agents économiques ne tiennent pas suffisamment compte des dommages que leurs choix entraînent pour l'environnement. L'Accord de Paris a constitué un pas de géant, mais il doit être suivi d'actions collectives rapides. La transition vers la neutralité carbone nécessite un effort mondial de la part de tous les secteurs. Cela comprend l'industrie financière, dont le rôle central a été souligné pour la première fois dans l'article 2.1c de l'Accord de Paris, qui plaide pour des « flux financiers compatibles avec un profil d'évolution vers un développement à faible émission de gaz à effet de serre et résilient aux changements climatiques » (CCNUCC, 2015). En d'autres termes, le système financier doit jouer un rôle clé dans le soutien à la transformation économique. Le changement climatique a une incidence sur les missions et les opérations des banques centrales. Par ailleurs, si le thème du changement climatique est relativement nouveau pour les banques centrales, il s'agit néanmoins d'un concept profondément ancré dans leurs mandats traditionnels et ne constitue donc pas une nouvelle doctrine, ni ne nécessite son invention. Au contraire : il s'agit plutôt d'une interprétation moderne et opportune des objectifs de longue date des banques centrales, qui leur demandent principalement de préserver la stabilité des prix et parfois aussi de faciliter une croissance soutenue, de promouvoir l'emploi ou de préserver la stabilité financière. Classification JEL : E40, E50, E52, E58, E60
Electronic copy available at: http://ssrn.com/abstract=2222041 An Econometric Analysis of the Demand Surge Effect AbstractIn case of a natural catastrophe there is an increased demand for skilled labor and materials which in turn leads to significant price increases that should be taken into account in the forecast of catastrophe losses. Such price effects are referred to as "Demand Surge" effects. The paper at hand presents an extensive econometric analysis and modeling of the Demand Surge effect. We find that Demand Surge is positively influenced by the total amount of repair work, by alternative catastrophes in the same region in close temporal proximity, and by a higher amount of insurance claims per event. Furthermore, the Demand Surge effect is more pronounced if the construction sector is in a growth stage. In contrast, a higher capacity of the construction sector has a restraining effect on Demand Surge. In addition, if we restrict the data to very severe catastrophes, we observe a saturation effect according to which a wage increase for building services before a catastrophe reduces the Demand Surge effect.
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