No abstract

Background Excessive consumption of sugar has a well-established link with obesity. Preliminary results show that a tax levied on sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) by the Portuguese government in 2017 led to a drop in sales and reformulation of these products. This study models the impact the market changes triggered by the tax levied on SSBs had on obesity incidence across various age groups in Portugal. Methods and findings We performed a national market analysis and population-wide modelling study using market data for the years 2014-2018 from the Portuguese Association of Non-Alcoholic Drinks (GlobalData and Nielsen Consumer Panel), dietary data from a national survey (IAN-AF 2015-2016), and obesity incidence data from several cohort studies. Dietary energy density from SSBs was calculated by dividing the energy content (kcal/gram) of all SSBs by the total food consumption (in grams). We used the potential impact fraction (PIF) equation to model

Several studies have identified Front-of-Pack Nutrition Labels (FoPLs) as a promising strategy to improve the nutritional quality of consumers’ food choices and encourage manufacturers to offer healthier products. This study aims to fill the evidence gap regarding the most effective FoPL among the Portuguese population. In total, 1059 Portuguese participants were recruited through a web panel provider and asked to declare their intended food choices and to rank three sets of products (pizza, cakes and breakfast cereals) according to their nutritional quality, first in the absence of any labelling, and then with a FoPL displayed on-pack (five FoPLs tested). Finally, participants were asked to answer nine statements related to perceptions of FoPLs. Results showed that participants improved their food choices, depending on the FoPL and the food category. All FoPLs led to a higher percentage of correct responses on the ranking task compared to the no label condition. The Nutri-Score was among the FoPLs producing the greatest improvement across all food categories compared to the reference intakes (OR = 6.45 [4.43–9.39], p-value < 0.0001) and facilitating the highest percentage to correctly rank products according to nutritional quality. This study suggests that, among the available options, Nutri-Score is the most efficient FoPL to inform Portuguese consumers of the nutritional quality of foods and help them identify healthier options in mock purchasing situations.

Objective To model the reduction in premature deaths attributed to noncommunicable diseases if targets for reformulation of processed food agreed between the Portuguese health ministry and the food industry were met. Methods The 2015 co-regulation agreement sets voluntary targets for reducing sugar, salt and trans-fatty acids in a range of products by 2021. We obtained government data on dietary intake in 2015–2016 and on population structure and deaths from four major noncommunicable diseases over 1990–2016. We used the Preventable Risk Integrated ModEl tool to estimate the deaths averted if reformulation targets were met in full. We projected future trends in noncommunicable disease deaths using regression modelling and assessed whether Portugal was on track to reduce baseline premature deaths from noncommunicable diseases in the year 2010 by 25% by 2025, and by 30% before 2030. Findings If reformulation targets were met, we projected reductions in intake in 2015–2016 for salt from 7.6 g/day to 7.1 g/day; in total energy from 1911 kcal/day to 1897 kcal/day due to reduced sugar intake; and in total fat (% total energy) from 30.4% to 30.3% due to reduced trans-fat intake. This consumption profile would result in 248 fewer premature noncommunicable disease deaths (95% CI: 178 to 318) in 2016. We projected that full implementation of the industry agreement would reduce the risk of premature death from 11.0% in 2016 to 10.7% by 2021. Conclusion The co-regulation agreement could save lives and reduce the risk of premature death in Portugal. Nevertheless, the projected impact on mortality was insufficient to meet international targets.

No abstract